تأثیر عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• زریر نگین تاجی ¹
• سید عطاءالله سینائی ²

¹ استادیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران

² استادیار جامعه‎شناسی، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2023.82454.1182

چکیده

شهرداری‌ها در ایران وابستگی بالایی به درآمدهای حاصل از بخش مسکن و شهرسازی دارند و شهرداری تهران نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. ازاین‌رو، تأمین منابع درآمدی لازم برای اداره شهر، به‌ویژه در شرایط رکود بخش مسکن، از مهم‌ترین موضوعات پیش روی شهرداری‌ها است. در شرایط رکود، شهرداری تهران همواره سعی کرده تا با تخفیفاتی در عوارض شهرسازی، منابع درآمدی موردنیاز خود را تأمین نماید. هدف این مقاله، بررسی اثر عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری در مسکن شهر تهران است. برای انجام این کار، از داده‌ سال‌های 1400-1380 و روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد که عوارض شهرسازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن شهر تهران تأثیر معنی‌داری ندارد؛ بنابراین اعمال تخفیفات در عوارض مذکور شاید در کوتاه‌مدت باعث تأمین منابع درآمدی لازم برای شهرداری تهران گردد، اما در بلندمدت تأثیری نخواهد داشت. همچنین مدل بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن تهران تحت تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی مانند تولید ناخالص داخلی و نقدینگی است و همچنین بازدهی دارایی‌های رقیبی مانند سکه طلا است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی: عوارض شهرسازی: بخش مسکن: روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی: شهرداری تهران:

موضوعات

• اقتصاد شهری

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of urban development taxes on private sector investment in housing; A case study of Tehran city

نویسندگان [English]

• Zarir Negintaji ¹
• Seyyed Ataollah Sinaee ²

¹ Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran

² Assistant Professor of Sociology, Department of Social Sciences, Payam Noor University, Tehran

چکیده [English]

 
1- INTRODUCTION
     Today, the issue of providing financial resources is important for municipalities all over the world, including Iran. These sources of income are influenced by macroeconomic conditions. This means that, in the economic recession, they decrease and city managers can not fulfill their duties. The financing methods required by municipalities in all parts of the world are direct sale of services, local taxes, use of government aid and issuance of bonds. But, the importance of these sources of revenue is different for big and even small cities in Iran. That is, the share of these resources from the total revenue of municipalities in a city like Tehran is low, and about 60-70% of the revenue sources of municipalities are related to housing.
This dependence of the income of municipalities on their housing sector has become a serious challenge, because in times of recession in the housing sector, the income of municipalities decreases. Therefore, during the past decades, Tehran Municipality provides a discount for urban development fees during the recession. Now, the basic question of this study is that the urbaning permit fee have an effect on the private sector's investment in housing in Tehran.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
      The theoretical analysis of investment in the housing sector is based on conventional investment theories in macroeconomics. Two important investment theories are discussed: the theory of the principle of acceleration (which itself is divided into two models of fixed acceleration and flexible acceleration model) related to the classics and the final efficiency theory of investment related to John Maynard Keynes. Acceleration pattern theory is based on the concept that changes in sales or income cause an increase in total investment. But Keynes believed that the amount of investment depends on the final efficiency of capital and interest rate. The relationship between investment and capital efficiency and interest rate is inverse. Both theories are used in this study.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
      In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the impact of urban development complications (permit issuance complications) on private sector investment in Tehran city housing. To do this, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used, and the data obtained from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the statistics of the Tehran municipality for the years 2010-2018. In this model, the dependent variable is influenced by the lag of the dependent variable itself and other independent variables. It should be noted that in order to investigate the long-term and short-term relationships between the dependent variable and other explanatory variables, collective methods such as the Engel-Granger method and ECM error correction models have been used.
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
      The long-term model estimation results show that the coefficients of two macro-economic variables, i.e. GDP and liquidity, are positive and significant. The interest rate of bank deposits has a negative effect (according to common theories), but it is insignificant. The price of coins, as a competitor for housing, has a negative and significant effect, which is consistent with the initial expectation as well as previous studies. The total index of Tehran Stock Exchange has a positive and significant relationship with investment in the housing sector. Finally, the building permit fee do not have a significant impact on private sector investment. This shows that the reduction of building permit fee does not affect the motivation of private sector investors in Tehran housing in the long term.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
      The long-term pattern shows that building permit fees do not have a significant effect on private sector investment in Tehran housing. This means that the discount in building permit fees may create sources of revenue for Tehran Municipality in the short term, but it has no effect in the long term. Other results of this model have shown that Tehran, macroeconomic variables such as GDP, liquidity and stock market index have a positive and significant effect on private sector investment in Tehran city housing. This means that the growth of national production will cause the growth of all economic sectors, including housing, and this will provide the necessary ground for the development of investment for the private sector. In addition, the increase in liquidity allows more resources to be transferred to the housing sector. Also, considering the large number of large construction companies in the stock market and providing financial resources from this market, the growth of the market has a positive and significant effect on investment in the housing sector of Tehran. The interest rate of bank deposits also has a negative but insignificant effect on investment in the housing sector, which can be caused by the high inflation in Iran's economy. Finally, coin price has a negative relationship with housing investment.
Therefore, according to our results, it is suggested that Tehran Municipality stop applying discounts on urbaning permit fees and seek to identify sources of revenue and new methods of financing or use the items such as renovation fees, waste, business and trade, advertising boards and instruments available in the financial markets.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Private Sector Investment
• Urbaning Permit Fees
• Housing Sector
• Auto Regressive Distributed Lag
• Tehran Municipality

مراجع

References

Abunouri, Ismaeil. & Khanalipour, Amir (2010). Does uncertainty resulting from crude oil price fluctuations affect its supply? An application of GARCH and ARDL, Economic Research, 32(91), pp. 219-247. (in Persian)

Ahmadian, Saeed.; Ebrahimi, Ahmad.; Mozafari, Gushtasb., & Samadi Forushani, Marziyeh. (2022). Development of economic resource attraction system in urban management of Tehran based on the strategy of competitive advantage of nations and the combined approach of fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making, Economics and Urban Planning, 3(3), pp. 6-21. (In Persian)

Anbari, Mohammad. (2017). Examination of the experiences of receiving taxes and duties in the municipalities of the world's metropolises, Mahed Center for Economic Policy and Development, Research No. 2004001. (In Persian)

Branson, William. (2013). Theory and Policies of Macroeconomics, translated by Abbas Shakeri, Tehran, Nai publication. (In Persian)

Chegini, Ali. (2016). Characteristics of the housing market in the economy and the prospects of this sector in the future, City Economy, 8(27), pp. 60-62. (In Persian)

Elahe Mahmoodi; Zahra Nasrollahi & Kazem Yavari. (2019). Investigating the effect of housing market fluctuations on macroeconomics: DSGE approach, Applied Theories of Economics, 6(21), pp. 239-268. (In Persian)

Farhang, Amir Ali.; Ranjbar Fallah, Mohammad Reza., & Ali Mohammadpour. (2022). Investigating the uncertainty of exchange rate and inflation on the investment of construction companies in Iran, economic research and policies, 29(100), pp. 195-226. (In Persian)

Khosravi, Fereydon.; Eskandari Sabzi, Sima.; Haqkhah, Davood.; Qara Daghi, Rostam., & Salmanpour Zenouz. Ali, (2022). Investigation of the extent and manner of the influence of bank facilities on business cycles by separating the services and housing sectors in Iran's economy, Economics and Modelling, 13(50), pp. 31-59. (In Persian)

Icellioglu, C. S. (2015). Is the Demographical Characteristics Influential on Housing Investment Preferences? A Diffusive Household Survey for Istanbul. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences; 195(3) pp. 534-543.

Izdakhasti, Hojjat. (2023). Reviewing the structure of sustainable urban incomes and calculating the value added tax gap of Tehran Municipality, Economics and Urban Planning, 3(4), pp. 64-75. (In Persian)

Kaghaziyan, Soheila.; Naqdi, Yazdan., & Pashaei, Hossein. (2015). Investigating the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on housing investment in Iran, Economic Strategy, 3(12), pp. 181-196. (In Persian)

Kajuth, F. (2021). Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany. Journal of Housing Economics, 51: 101746.

Kesht Karan, Najmeh.; Behbodi, Davood., & Panahi, Hossein. (2021). Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Iran's Housing Market: DSGE Approach, Applied Theories of Economics, 7 (27), pp. 195-218. (In Persian)

Khodadad Kashi, Farhad. (2022). Macroeconomics 1 (second edition), Tehran, Payam Noor University Publishing. (In Persian)

Khoshe Gol Garossi, Masoumeh., & Afshari, Zahra. (2020). The impact of macroeconomic shocks on investment in the housing sector in Iran using the Bayesian vector autoregression method, Urban Economics and Management, 8(30), pp. 51-66. (In Persian)

Kim, H. M. (2020). International Real Estate Investment and Urban Development: An Analysis of Korean Activities in Hanoi, Vietnam. Land Use Policy, 94: 104486

Marais, L., & Cloete, J. (2017). Housing policy and private sector housing finance: Policy intent and market directions in South Africa. Habitat International, 61: pp. 22-30

Monnet, E. (2015). Demographic cycles, migration and housing investment. Journal of Housing Economics, 38: pp. 38-49.

Nemati, Gholam Reza.; Alizadeh, Mohammad., & Fetros, Mohammad Hassan. (2020). Identifying factors affecting private sector investment in housing with an emphasis on financial and monetary policies: Bayesian approach; Urban Economics and Management, 8(29), pp. 87-110. (In Persian)

Nguyen, H. T. (2013). Housing investment: What makes it so volatile? Theory and evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(3): pp.163-178.

Nguyen, M. N.; Nguyen, H. T., & Vu, M. H. (2022). The relevance of factors affecting real estate investment decisions for post pandemic time. International Journal of Business and Globalisation, DOI:10.1504/IJBG.2022.10056378.

Noferesti, Mohammad., & Norouzi, Zahra. (2013). Private Investment Response to User Cost of Capital, Uncertainty and Capacity Utilization Rate, Economics and Modelling, 3 (11 & 12). pp. 44-63. (In Persian)

Pishgar, Elahe., & Mohammadi, Alireza. (2020). An analysis of housing index changes in Tehran metropolis during 2009-2019, Economics and Urban Planning, 1(2), pp. 106-118. (In Persian)

Pourzarandi, Mohammad Hossein.; Daneshjafari, Davood., & Heydari Kord Zanganeh, Gholamreza. (2012). New instruments in financing municipalities, City Economy, 4(15), pp. 7-11. (In Persian)

Qadri, Jafar.; Islamloeiyan, Abdul Karim., & Ojimehr. Sakine (2011). Investigation of factors affecting housing investment in Iran, Sustainable Growth and Development Research (Economic Research), 11 (3), pp. 47-70. (In Persian)

Qolizadeh, Ali Akbar., & Sajjadi, Hassan. (2020). Estimating the housing investment function in urban areas of Iran using Tobin's Q approach, Economic Policy, 2(3), pp. 71-105. (In Persian)

Qolizadeh, Ali Akbar., & Barati, Javad. (2010). The role of foreign trade in the effect of GDP components on residential investment, Macroeconomic Research, 8(15), pp. 35-60. (In Persian)

Qolizadeh, Ali Akbar., & Samadipour, Shahla. (2021). Investigating the relationship between human capital shock, economic growth and housing prices using panel vector autoregression model; Stable Economy, 2(3), pp. 31-59. (In Persian)

Rahmani, Taimur. (2001). Macroeconomics, Tehran, Baradaran Publication. (In Persian)

 

References

Statistics of Tehran Municipality 2016, Information and Communication Technology Organization of Tehran Municipality, 2017. (In Persian)

Tagkalakis A O. (2014). Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece. Empirica. 41: pp. 687-712.

www.statista.com/statistics/226355/us-public-and-private-sector-construction/