Regional Economics
Zeinab Baradaran Khanian; Zahra Azari; Davood Behboudi
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
In order to eliminate the imbalances in economic sectors, especially in developing countries, due to limited resources and emphasis on investment and allocation of capital resources to key sectors, the government adopts policies that the society has the ability to implement. ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
In order to eliminate the imbalances in economic sectors, especially in developing countries, due to limited resources and emphasis on investment and allocation of capital resources to key sectors, the government adopts policies that the society has the ability to implement. This causes more attention to the sectors with higher priority for investment. Considering the very high share of services in recent years, investment in this sector, in addition to economic growth, provides the necessary resources for investment in other economic sectors. Hirschman believes that economic development is a continuous process that is created by the growth of the leading sector and the establishment of connections between this sector and other economic sectors. Since the share of the service sector in GDP and employment has always been higher than other sectors of the economy in recent years, the service sector has been identified as a large or strategic or dominant sector in the country. In recent years, investment in this sector, in addition to economic growth, has provided the necessary resources for investment in other economic sectors and has acted as a leading sector in Iran's economy.
On the other hand, not paying attention to the talents and potential possibilities of Iran and its provinces, among other things, has faced serious challenges to development. East Azarbaijan province has not been exempt from this problem with its unique natural and human facilities that can stimulate development in different sectors. According to the material presented about the contribution of the service sector as a productive and profitable sector in the economy and the position of its sub-sectors in the economic and social system of countries including Iran, recognizing and explaining the current situation of the country's provinces and accordingly, East Azerbaijan province is one of the most important and influential provinces in the economic growth and development of the country, and as the pole of the northwest region and having unique natural and human resources that can stimulate development in various sectors, it has great importance.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
For the first time, Peru (1968) proposed another group of theories in economic literature, which are known as growth pole theories. In Peru's theory, simultaneous growth does not occur everywhere, but occurs at points or poles of development that have high attraction power. In developing countries, it is not possible to develop all economic sectors at the same time. In the initial stages of the formation of the pole, although the activities are concentrated in the center of the pole and cause aggravation of imbalances and imbalances, but the supporters of this theory believe that after the formation of the pole, the diffusion stage comes and during those positive effects flow to the surrounding environment. Therefore, according to this theory, there is a need to identify the key sectors of developing societies in order to prioritize them.
3- METHODOLOGY
The first part of the present research was conducted in terms of the purpose of the evaluation type and from the perspective of the method in a descriptive and analytical manner and based on qualitative data, the data was collected by a survey method through the distribution of questionnaires. Multi-sector analysis (MSA) has been used to examine the key core of the service sector of East Azarbaijan province. In the second part of the methodology, according to the indicators mentioned in the theoretical foundations for the sustainable development of tourism, it is possible to obtain a complete assessment of the level of access to each of these indicators in East Azerbaijan province, which is the main step in answering this question. What is the state of the province in each of the indicators related to the development of sustainable tourism? To extract the value of the identified indicators, using the Cochran sampling method, the sample size was estimated to be 384 people. After designing the questionnaire tool and verifying its validity using the content and form method, by distributing the questionnaire, field data was collected by random sampling method from among the residents of different regions of East Azarbaijan province, and in the next stage, the indicators were used using Python software and scaled and standardized between zero and one as follows.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
In this study, using multi-sector analysis, tourism has been identified as the key core and the most effective service sub-sector of East Azerbaijan province. Examining the indicators related to sustainability, which includes 5 economic, social, environmental, cultural and social dimensions, shows that the level of sustainability of tourism on a macro scale is 0.256 of one unit. This means that despite the existing attractions and potentials in the province, this sector has not found its proper place and is far from achieving sustainability. Also, the examination of the status of the five indices shows that the environmental index with a score of 0.299 of the unit has the highest score among other indices, while the social index with a score of 0.166 is one of the lowest.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
According to the findings of the study, it can be said that in order to improve and develop indicators related to sustainable tourism in the province, it is necessary to continue the current programs and activities related to the sustainable development of tourism, and those responsible should focus more on two economic and social components. Because, first of all, tourism can create jobs if it is sustainable, and if the stated goals are achieved, sustainable tourism can provide opportunities for employment and income for local residents and the development of infrastructure structures to enable sustainable development. Therefore, in the future research, it is suggested to develop tourism sustainability strategies in East Azarbaijan province.
Regional Urban Economy
zeinab baradaran; zahra azari; hossein panahi
Abstract
Extended abstract
1-INTRODUCTION
Economic theories and experiences of different countries show that there are different paths for economic growth and development, and the rate of growth and development depends on what sectors of the economy to invest in. the growth rate also varies according to the ...
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Extended abstract
1-INTRODUCTION
Economic theories and experiences of different countries show that there are different paths for economic growth and development, and the rate of growth and development depends on what sectors of the economy to invest in. the growth rate also varies according to the sectors in which it is invested. for this reason, the production system is usually divided into two parts: production and consumer goods, and it is often said that the productive goods sector is the driving force of growth. therefore, in the long run, maximizing growth depends on allocating as much investment as possible to key sectors of the economy.
2-THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
In general, growth and development theories are classified into three main groups in order to identify the importance of economic sectors and how resources are allocated: balanced growth theory, unbalanced growth theory and growth pole theory. Rosenstein-Roden (1943), the founder of the theory of balanced growth, argues that one sector alone cannot provide economic development, but if several sectors start producing with increasing and related returns, so that each demand for the product provide another, economic development will be possible. due to the skepticism of the theory of balanced growth, the theory of unbalanced growth was proposed in the economic literature by Hirschman (1958). according to this theory, investment should be made in sectors so that the benefits of this investment penetrate into other economic sectors and investment conditions are provided in these sectors. in this theory, Hirschman (1958) believes that in order to achieve development, we have to choose one or more projects from different investment plans, according to our possibilities. other categories of theories for providing a path to development are known as growth pole theories. other categories of theories for providing a path to development are known as growth pole theories, first proposed by Peru (1968) in the economic literature. Peru’s innovative concept is actually derived from Schumpeter’s idea that growth is a direct and indirect product of innovation. in Peru’s theory, simultaneous growth does not occur everywhere, but at points or poles of development that have high gravity. these points spread development through channels and affect the entire economy.
3- METHODOLOGY
The aim of this study is to identify the key core of the infrastructure sector of East Azerbaijan province with the multi-sector analysis (MSA) approach. In the first step, this research extracts information and communication technology as the key subdivision of the infrastructure sector of the province using MSA analytical model and Excel software and extracts the most important criteria in this sector. In the next step of this study, the SWOT method examined the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the key core extracted from the MSA analysis, and using the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) method, the proposed strategies were prioritized.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results indicate that at the level of subsectors, ICT as a key core with 0.72 points and at the level of criteria, creating high added value, improving production capacity (process, equipment and technology) and absorption. Foreign capital is the most important, respectively. On the other hand, information and communication technology is also known as the most influential and influential sub-sector. Research findings show that information and communication technology has not found its proper place in East Azerbaijan province.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Findings show that information and communication technology in East Azerbaijan province has not found its proper place and if the province wants to progress in this area, the strategies of the Defensive Group (WT), which is based on reducing weaknesses and avoiding threats, should be given priority. According to the results, the strategy of providing a suitable platform for e-businesses and creating a provincial unit for empowering Internet businesses to increase information security and empower ICT professionals and business idea owners in East Azerbaijan Province is recommended.
Reza ranjpour; Mohammd reza salmani; zahra Karimi Takanlo; nosrat mokhtarzade khanghahi
Abstract
Exchange rate fluctuation is one of the most important economic variables which its impact on some macro indicators has changed the motivation of economic activists and has also affected the production of economic sectors. Therefore, in this article we have attempted to examine the impact of currency ...
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Exchange rate fluctuation is one of the most important economic variables which its impact on some macro indicators has changed the motivation of economic activists and has also affected the production of economic sectors. Therefore, in this article we have attempted to examine the impact of currency shocks on the performance of sub-industry in the East Azerbaijan Province. To this end, firstly, currency shocks were calculated with the help of the model of the generalized autoregressive heterogeneity variance and were introduced into the model as an explanatory variable. Then using the panel data based on the patterns of the variable and dynamic coefficients and pmge technique were analyzed and its impact on industry value-added of 23 sub-sections of East Azerbaijan Province based on two-digit codes of ISIC-REV4 for the period of 2000-2013 were studied. The results showed a positive and significant effect of variables such as capital, workforce, and export on the value-added of sub-industry in East Azerbaijan Province. Of the 23 industry subsections of the province, currency fluctuation has positive and significant impacts on only four subsections. This effect has been negative for each of 9 subsections, therefore, the fluctuation of real effective exchange rate has adverse impacts on the value-added of Province, and especially on the fluctuation of the production of 9 subsections.
Methodology
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of currency shocks on sub-sections of the industrial sector in East Azarbaijan Province. To do this, the effects of the exchange rate fluctuations affecting the value added of the industry sub-sections were examined through econometric models in order to determine which section is more vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. Based on theoretical foundations, the implicit form of the research model is offered as follows:
(1)
Where kav, erv, er, and x are respectively value added, the real effective exchange rate, the real exchange rate fluctuations and other factors affect the value added. Given the nature of the research and the purpose of the research, the Solo Growth Model (Aghion et al., 2009) used for the value-added function is as follows:
(2)
In this model, i represents the segment and t represents the time:
Logarithm of the real effective exchange rate, Uncertainty real effective exchange rate, logarithm Value added, Logarithm of the amount of available cash, Logarithm of the number of active labor force, logarithm of the value of the export value.
As stated above, the main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of currency exchange on various economic subdivisions of East Azarbaijan Province. Therefore, the study consists of two steps. In the first step, using the generalized conditional differential equation variance model, the exchange rate was calculated. In the second step, by introducing this variable in the model and using dynamic panel and dynamic variable coefficients and the PMGE technique, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on 23 sub-sectors of the East Azarbaijan industry will be analyzed. According to the above-mentioned questions, the two generalized conditional non-conformance autoregressive variance techniques and the data panel were used to investigate the problem.
Results and discussion
In this study, 23 sub-sections of the industry sector in East Azarbaijan Province were selected based on two-digit ISIC-REV4 codes for the years between 2000-2013. The data and statistical information of the research variables were collected by the Central Bank, the World Bank and the Office of Management and Budget Program of East Azarbaijan Province.
In order to estimate the real effective exchange rate uncertainty, different GARCH, EGARCH models were estimated for a real effective exchange rate. Then based on the Jenkins Box and the AKA and Schwartz criteria, the best method to estimate the uncertainty of the real effective exchange rate of EGARCH (1, 1) was selected.
Before performing the panel coagulation test to determine the long-run relationship between the main indexes of the study, a single root test should be performed to prevent the occurrence of a regression problem for the variables. In this study, for determining the reliability of panel variables, the Fisher's root test was used, and the root test of the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit was used for root unit testing of the time series. All of the variables were accumulated from the first order. To examine the long-term relationship between variables, Pedroni's co-integration test was used, and the existence of such a relationship was confirmed.
After the root tests and a long-term relationship, it was necessary to perform appropriate diagnostic tests to determine the type of model. In order to ensure the meaningfulness of the sample subgroups, a meaningful test of the group was used. The F-Limer's optimal value is 0.028,; therefore, the hypothesis of the effect of the panel is accepted
As previously mentioned, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of volatile exchange rate volatility on the value added of the industrial sector in East Azarbaijan Province. For this purpose, an econometric model was used (Fig. 2). Then, using the proposed model, the method was applied to the target using the panel data method based on the variable and steady-state coefficients. In the present study, the data were used for 23 sub-sections excluded from the study under the tobacco sector due to lack of information. In addition, the export variables, labor force and capital in all the sub-sectors had a significant and positive impact on the value added of the industry, and the exchange rate variable in the sub-sectors had different effects; however, the real effective exchange rate fluctuations in the 9 sub-sections of the industry had negatively impacted and reduced the value added of these sub-sections.
Conclusion
The results showed that the capital had a positive effect on the value added of the subsections so that the amount of this effect was within the range of 1.71 to 3.21, the highest and lowest impact on the non-metallic mineral industries, respectively. In fact, this is in line with the studies of Gelaii (2012) In addition, labor had a positive impact on the value added, which varies from sub-section to sub-section, with the highest and lowest impact on machinery and equipment industries and office machinery. Again this is consistent with the studies of Gelaii (2012). The results indicate that exports in all sub-sectors have a positive and significant impact on value added, which is consistent with the studies of Butang (2015). The value-added variable in any of the sub-sections is not significant, which contradicts the studies of Parhizkari et al. (2013). The magnitude of the coefficient for effective exchange rate fluctuations was only in the 9 sub-sections of the 23 sub-sections, which is negative and significant. This is in line with most studies, which is approximately 0.99 for all of these sub-sections. The estimated coefficient for industry sub-sectors was about 0.99, indicating that one percent increase in currency shocks would reduce over 99 percent of the value added of these sub-sectors.
