1991دوفصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصاد وتوسعه منطقه ای251513972018-10-23مقالات پژوهشیم ق10.22067/erd.v25i15.64435بررسی نقش متغیرهای مؤثر بر شاخص رفاه مؤسسه لگاتیوم با رویکرد لاجیت ترتیبیInvestigating the Role of Variables Affecting the Legatum Prosperity Index Using Ordered Logit Regression approachامروزه یکی از هدفهای اصلی سیاستگذاران، ارتقای کیفیت زندگی و افزایش سطح رفاه جامعه است و یکی از شاخصهای اصلی سنجش پیشرفت کشورها، شاخص رفاه آن کشور میباشد. شاخص رفاه تابعی از متغیرهای مختلفی در طول زمان است که توسط محققان و مؤسسات مختلف از جمله مؤسسه لگاتیوم ارائه گردیده است. تحقیق حاضر سعی دارد با استفاده از مدل لاجیت ترتیبی و با توجه به رتبهبندی کشورها توسط مؤسسه لگاتیوم به چهار گروه کشورهای با رفاه پایین، رفاه پایینتر از متوسط، رفاه بالاتر از متوسط و رفاه بالا، به بررسی اثرات متغیرهای موردنظر بر شاخص رفاه برای سال 2015 بپردازد. متغیر وابسته سطح رفاه کشورها است که در چهار گروه مورداشاره مطابق با تقسیمبندی مؤسسه لگاتیوم، برای 142 کشور ارائه شده است. متغیرهای توضیحی منتخب نیز شامل زیر شاخصهای اقتصادی، کارآفرینی، حکومت، آموزش، سلامت و سرمایههای اجتماعی میباشد. نتایج تحقیق با توجه به تأیید شدن آزمون رگرسیونهای موازی نشان داد که تمامی متغیرها بهجز زیر شاخص آموزش، اثر مثبت و معنیداری بر شاخص رفاه دارند. همچنین مقدار اثر نهایی در زیر شاخص سلامت دارای بیشترین مقدار است و نشان میدهد که توجه کشورها به این زیر شاخص، جهت افزایش رفاه کلی یک جامعه از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار است.1. Introduction
Today, one of the main goals of policymakers is to improve the quality of life and increase the level of welfare of the society. One of the main indicators of the progress of countries is its prosperity index. Prosperity is more than just the accumulation of material wealth; it is also the joy of everyday life and the prospect of an even better life in the future. This is true for individuals as well as nations. The prosperity index is a function of various variables over time that has been investigated by researchers and institutes, including the Legatum institute. The Legatum Institute exists to promote policies that create pathways from poverty to prosperity. The journey towards prosperity is therefore not just about what we contribute, but about who we become.
2. Theoretical Framework
The Legatum Prosperity Index is a framework that assesses countries on the promotion of their citizens’ flourishing, reflecting both wealth and wellbeing. It captures the richness of a truly prosperous life, moving beyond traditional macroeconomic measurements of a nation’s prosperity, which relies solely on the indicators of wealth such as average income per person (GDP per capita). This makes it an authoritative measure of human progress, offering a unique insight into how prosperity is forming and changing across the world.
The Legatum Prosperity Index offers a unique insight into how prosperity is forming and changing across the world. The Index is distinctive in that it is the only global measurement of prosperity based on both income and wellbeing. Traditionally, a nation’s prosperity has been based solely on macroeconomic indicators such as a country’s income represented either by GDP or by average income per person (GDP per capita). However, most people would agree that prosperity is more than just the accumulation of material wealth. It is also the joy of everyday life and the prospect of being able to build an even better life in the future. In recent years, governments, academics, international organizations, and businesses have increasingly moved their attention towards the indicators that measure wellbeing as a complement to GDP. Indeed, the Index not only recognizes the need for a country to promote high levels of per capita income but also advocates improvements in the subjective wellbeing of its citizens. The 2017 Legatum Prosperity Index is based on 104 different variables analyzed across 149 nations around the world. The source data includes Gallup World Poll, World Development Indicators, International Telecommunication Union, Fragile States Index, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Freedom House, World Health Organization, World Values Survey, Amnesty International, and the Centre for Systemic Peace. The 104 variables are grouped into 9 sub-indexes, which are averaged using equal weights. The 9 sub-indexes are:
Economic Quality
Business Environment
Governance
Education
Health
Safety & Security
Personal Freedom
Social Capital
Natural Environment
For example, personal freedom includes freedom of speech and religion, national tolerance for immigrants and ethnic and racial minorities. The Social Capital sub-index includes the percentage of citizens who volunteer, give to charity, help strangers, and who feel they can rely on family and friends.
3. Methodology
The present research is attempting to study the effects of different sub-indices on the overall prosperity index in 2015 using Ordered Logit Regression model. Ordered Logit models are used to estimate the relationships between an ordinal dependent variable and a set of independent variables. According to the ranking of countries by the Legatum Institute to four groups of low-welfare, lower than middle welfare, higher than middle welfare and high welfare countries, the effects of welfare sub-indices on the overall index is investigated for 142 countries. The dependent variable is the welfare state of the countries, which is classified into four main categories according to the division of the Legatum Institute and the selected explanatory variables including economic, entrepreneurship, governance, education, health and social capital indicators.
4. Results & Discussion
According to the results, we understand that all variables are significant at level of 10%, but education index is not significant. On the other hand, health and social indices at the level of 1%, entrepreneurship and government indices in level of 5% and economic sub-index are also significant at level of 10%. Therefore, due to significant and positive coefficients of these variables, it is safe to say that these variables have positive and direct effects on prosperity in every country. Therefore, increasing independent significant variables would increase possibility countries to higher levels of prosperity and income.
5. Conclusions & Suggestions
According to the confirmation of the parallel regression test, the results show that all variables except the education index have a positive and significant effect on the overall prosperity index. In addition, the amount of marginal effect for health index is the highest and shows that the attention of countries to this sub-indicator is more important in terms of increasing the general prosperity of a country.حسینمحمدیفردوسی مشهدFerdowsi University of MashhadIRHoseinmohammadi@um.ac.irمهدیمحمودیدانشگاه فردوسی مشهدFerdowsi University of MashhadIRmehdi.mahmoudi29@gmail.com1-202018-07-2310.22067/erd.v25i15.59060مطالعه اثرات نااطمینانی نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی بر ارزشافزوده زیر بخشهای صنعت در استان آذربایجان شرقیThe Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Value-Added of Sub-Industry in East Azerbaijan ProvinceThe effects of uncertainly real effective exchange rate on value-added of sub-industry in East Azerbaijan Provinceنوسانات نرخ ارز از مهمترین متغیرهای اقتصادی یک کشور بوده که با تأثیر بر برخی از شاخصهای کلان، انگیزۀ فعالان اقتصادی را دچار تغییر کرده و بر تولید بخشهای اقتصادی کشور تأثیر میگذارد. ازاینرو، در مقالۀ حاضر سعی شده، تأثیر شوکهای ارزی بر عملکرد زیر بخشهای صنعت استان آذربایجان شرقی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. لذا ابتدا شوکهای ارزی با کمک الگوی واریانس ناهمسانی اتورگرسیو تعمیم یافته محاسبه شده و به عنوان یک متغیر توضیحی وارد مدل شده است و سپس با استفاده از دادههای تابلویی مبتنی بر الگوهای با ضرایب متغیر و پویا با تکنیک pmge تأثیر آن بر ارزشافزوده 23 زیر بخش صنعت استان آذربایجان شرقی بر اساس کدهای دو رقمی ISIC-REV4، برای دورۀ 1379 نا 1392 مورد تجزیهوتحلیل قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان از تأثیر مثبت و معنیدار متغیرهای سرمایه، نیروی کار و میزان صادرات بر ارزشافزوده زیر بخشهای صنعت در استان آذربایجان شرقی دارد. در میان 23 زیر بخش صنعت استان، نوسانات ارزی، تنها بر 9 زیر بخش از 23 زیر بخش تأثیر معناداری برجای میگذارد. این اثر برای هر 9 زیر بخش، منفی بوده، لذا نوسانات نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی، اثر معکوسی بر ارزشافزودۀ صنعت استان گذاشته و بهویژه تولید 9 زیر بخش مذکور را دچار نوسان میسازد. این نتایج، لزوم توجه بیشتر به نوسانات ارزی و اتخاذ سیاستهای مؤثر، جهت مقابله با تأثیرات سوء این نوسانات را بیشازپیش آشکار میسازد.Exchange rate fluctuation is one of the most important economic variables which its impact on some macro indicators has changed the motivation of economic activists and has also affected the production of economic sectors. Therefore, in this article we have attempted to examine the impact of currency shocks on the performance of sub-industry in the East Azerbaijan Province. To this end, firstly, currency shocks were calculated with the help of the model of the generalized autoregressive heterogeneity variance and were introduced into the model as an explanatory variable. Then using the panel data based on the patterns of the variable and dynamic coefficients and pmge technique were analyzed and its impact on industry value-added of 23 sub-sections of East Azerbaijan Province based on two-digit codes of ISIC-REV4 for the period of 2000-2013 were studied. The results showed a positive and significant effect of variables such as capital, workforce, and export on the value-added of sub-industry in East Azerbaijan Province. Of the 23 industry subsections of the province, currency fluctuation has positive and significant impacts on only four subsections. This effect has been negative for each of 9 subsections, therefore, the fluctuation of real effective exchange rate has adverse impacts on the value-added of Province, and especially on the fluctuation of the production of 9 subsections.
Methodology
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of currency shocks on sub-sections of the industrial sector in East Azarbaijan Province. To do this, the effects of the exchange rate fluctuations affecting the value added of the industry sub-sections were examined through econometric models in order to determine which section is more vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. Based on theoretical foundations, the implicit form of the research model is offered as follows:
(1)
Where kav, erv, er, and x are respectively value added, the real effective exchange rate, the real exchange rate fluctuations and other factors affect the value added. Given the nature of the research and the purpose of the research, the Solo Growth Model (Aghion et al., 2009) used for the value-added function is as follows:
(2)
In this model, i represents the segment and t represents the time:
Logarithm of the real effective exchange rate, Uncertainty real effective exchange rate, logarithm Value added, Logarithm of the amount of available cash, Logarithm of the number of active labor force, logarithm of the value of the export value.
As stated above, the main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of currency exchange on various economic subdivisions of East Azarbaijan Province. Therefore, the study consists of two steps. In the first step, using the generalized conditional differential equation variance model, the exchange rate was calculated. In the second step, by introducing this variable in the model and using dynamic panel and dynamic variable coefficients and the PMGE technique, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on 23 sub-sectors of the East Azarbaijan industry will be analyzed. According to the above-mentioned questions, the two generalized conditional non-conformance autoregressive variance techniques and the data panel were used to investigate the problem.
Results and discussion
In this study, 23 sub-sections of the industry sector in East Azarbaijan Province were selected based on two-digit ISIC-REV4 codes for the years between 2000-2013. The data and statistical information of the research variables were collected by the Central Bank, the World Bank and the Office of Management and Budget Program of East Azarbaijan Province.
In order to estimate the real effective exchange rate uncertainty, different GARCH, EGARCH models were estimated for a real effective exchange rate. Then based on the Jenkins Box and the AKA and Schwartz criteria, the best method to estimate the uncertainty of the real effective exchange rate of EGARCH (1, 1) was selected.
Before performing the panel coagulation test to determine the long-run relationship between the main indexes of the study, a single root test should be performed to prevent the occurrence of a regression problem for the variables. In this study, for determining the reliability of panel variables, the Fisher's root test was used, and the root test of the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit was used for root unit testing of the time series. All of the variables were accumulated from the first order. To examine the long-term relationship between variables, Pedroni's co-integration test was used, and the existence of such a relationship was confirmed.
After the root tests and a long-term relationship, it was necessary to perform appropriate diagnostic tests to determine the type of model. In order to ensure the meaningfulness of the sample subgroups, a meaningful test of the group was used. The F-Limer's optimal value is 0.028,; therefore, the hypothesis of the effect of the panel is accepted
As previously mentioned, the main objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of volatile exchange rate volatility on the value added of the industrial sector in East Azarbaijan Province. For this purpose, an econometric model was used (Fig. 2). Then, using the proposed model, the method was applied to the target using the panel data method based on the variable and steady-state coefficients. In the present study, the data were used for 23 sub-sections excluded from the study under the tobacco sector due to lack of information. In addition, the export variables, labor force and capital in all the sub-sectors had a significant and positive impact on the value added of the industry, and the exchange rate variable in the sub-sectors had different effects; however, the real effective exchange rate fluctuations in the 9 sub-sections of the industry had negatively impacted and reduced the value added of these sub-sections.
Conclusion
The results showed that the capital had a positive effect on the value added of the subsections so that the amount of this effect was within the range of 1.71 to 3.21, the highest and lowest impact on the non-metallic mineral industries, respectively. In fact, this is in line with the studies of Gelaii (2012) In addition, labor had a positive impact on the value added, which varies from sub-section to sub-section, with the highest and lowest impact on machinery and equipment industries and office machinery. Again this is consistent with the studies of Gelaii (2012). The results indicate that exports in all sub-sectors have a positive and significant impact on value added, which is consistent with the studies of Butang (2015). The value-added variable in any of the sub-sections is not significant, which contradicts the studies of Parhizkari et al. (2013). The magnitude of the coefficient for effective exchange rate fluctuations was only in the 9 sub-sections of the 23 sub-sections, which is negative and significant. This is in line with most studies, which is approximately 0.99 for all of these sub-sections. The estimated coefficient for industry sub-sectors was about 0.99, indicating that one percent increase in currency shocks would reduce over 99 percent of the value added of these sub-sectors.رضارنج پوردانشگاه تبریزTabriz UniversityIRreza.ranjpour@gmail.comمحمدرضاسلمانی بیشکدانشگاه تبریزTabriz UniversityIRmrsalmani_2005@yahoo.comزهراکریمی تکانلودانشگاه تبریزTabrizIRwebkarimi1355@yahoo.comنصرتمختارزاده خانقاهیدانشگاه تبریزTabriz UniversityIRnaser.mokhtarzade@gmail.com21-502018-07-2310.22067/erd.v25i15.62825مقایسه عملکرد ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص و ضرایب فزاینده خالص در اقتصاد منطقهای (مطالعه موردی: استان مرکزی)Comparing Gross Multiplier Coefficients with Net Multiplier Coefficients in terms of Regional Economy (Case study: Markazi Province)جدول داده- ستانده، روشی مناسب برای شناسایی بخشهای کلیدی اقتصاد منطقه¬ای است. از جدول داده- ستانده ضرایب فزاینده تقاضا و عرضه استخراج می¬گردد که این ضرایب فزاینده قادر به محاسبه بخشهای پیشرو طرف تقاضا و طرف عرضه و درنهایت محاسبه بخشهای کلیدی هستند. ضرایب فزاینده¬ها را میتوان به دو دسته ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص (سنتی) و ضرایب فزاینده خالص (ابتکار Oosterhaven, Stelder) تقسیم کرد. این مقاله ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص و خالص را برای استان مرکزی محاسبه نموده است. نتایج مقاله نشان می¬دهد در بحث منطقه¬ای (استان) ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص عملکرد مناسبتری نسبت به ضرایب فزاینده خالص دارند. ضرایب فزاینده خالص تنها فعالیتهای اقتصادی را به دو گروه عرضه محور و تقاضا محور تقسیم می¬کند و بدین ترتیب ضرایب فزاینده خالص قادر به ساختن بخشهای کلیدی استانی در ایران نیست؛ درحالیکه ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص فعالیتهای اقتصادی منطقه را در چهار گروه قرار داده و قادر به ساختن بخشهای کلیدی است.Extended Abstract
Input-outputtable is a suitable way to identify the key sectors of regional economy. Multiplier coefficients of demand and supply extracted from input-output table may be used to calculate the innovating sectors of demand and supply and consequentially their key sectors. Multiplier coefficients are classified as gross and net (innovated by Oosterhaven&Stelder, 2002).. This study attempts to calculate the gross and net multiplier coefficients for the province of Markazi. The results show that for regional studies the gross multiplier coefficients work better than the net multiplier coefficients. The net multiplier coefficients divide economic activities in two groups of supply or demand; therefore, they cannot be used to create regional key sectors in Iran. However, the gross multiplier coefficients divide the regional economic activities into four groups and can be used to identify the key sectors in Iran.
Methodology
Regional analysis is, in fact, an important branch of economics. One of the most common methods for studying regional economics is the use of regional input-output tables. To identify key sectors, the multiplier coefficients of supply and demand are used. The multiplier coefficients derived from the output-output table are called grossmultiplier coefficients. In this sense, Oosterhaven and Stelder(2002) haverecently introduced a new version called net multiplier coefficients.
In a n-section economy, the relation between sections is expressed in the formula when x is the level of production, A is the technical coefficients Matrix, and f is the final demand. When the equation is solved, the Leontief formula ( ) would be obtained. The gross multiplier coefficient is computed from the sum of the Leontief matrix column. This equation is .where is the gross multiplier coefficient of demand and i is a row vector of one. Oosterhaven and Stelder believe that the application of these coefficients in determining the economic importance of a sector leads to an overestimation of the importance of that part.
Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) introduce the net multiplier coefficient with where is the gross multiplier coefficient of demand,while is a diagonal matrix where its main diameter is filled by the ratio of final demand to output . Dietzenbacher and Miller (2009) haveproved that if net multiplier coefficient of a sector is greater than one, means that this sector very dependent to other sectors.. It is safe to say that the net multiplier has the ability to interpret interdependence among the sections.
Results
After calculating the net and gross multiplier coefficients for Markazi Province, interesting results were obtained from net multiplier coefficients and gross multiplier coefficients. Gross multiplier coefficients classified the sectors into four groups where the first cell reports the key sectors. Key sectors in gross multiplier are:
“Manufacture of paper and paper products”;“Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products”;“Manufacture of basic metals”;“Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment”;“Manufacture of machinery and equipment" and “Electricity“
There is no key section in net multiplier coefficients. The net multiplier coefficients divide economic activities in two groups of supply or demand and as result cannot be used to create regional key sectors in Iran.علیآزادی نژادMaybod universityدانشگاه آیت الله حایری میبدIRaazadinejad@yahoo.comسید یحییابطحیIslamic Azad University of Yazdدانشگاه آزاد اسلامی یزدabtahi@iauyazd.ac.ir51-662018-07-2310.22067/erd.v25i15.64057تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی بر نرخ باروری در استان های ایرانThe Impact of Economic Variables on Fertility Rate in Iran’s Provincesکاهش نرخ باروی در ایران یکی از مهمترین دغدغه های سیاست¬گذاران اجتماعی در سالهای اخیر بوده است. وقوع این مسئله می تواند دلایل متعددی داشته باشد که یکی از مهمترین آنها، ساختار اقتصادی کشور است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع حاضر، در این پژوهش تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی (با تأکید بر متغیرهای بازار کار، برخورداری از مسکن و چگونگی توزیع درآمد) بر نرخ موالید در استان های ایران در دوره 1392-1384 با استفاده از روش داده های تابلوی بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان از آن دارد که متغیرهای اقتصادی و به¬خصوص شاخص های بازار کار به دلیل اثرات مهمی که بر هزینه فرصت افراد و درآمد انتظاری آنان در آینده دارد، نقش مهمی در تعیین نرخ باروری داشته است. بهگونهای که افزایش درآمدهای انتظاری از شغل برای مردان در قالب کاهش ریسک از دست دادن شغل (کاهش نوسان در نرخ بیکاری، کاهش نرخ اشتغال ناقص مردان، کاهش سهم اشتغال مردان در بخش خصوصی) و یا افزایش درآمد انتظاری آتی (افزایش نرخ اشتغال مردان) سبب بهبود نرخ باروری در استان های ایران شده و از سوی دیگر تأثیر متغیرهای بازار کار برای زنان در قالب کاهش ریسک (کاهش نوسان بیکاری، کاهش سهم اشتغال زنان در بخش خصوصی) سبب افزایش نرخ باروری شده است. همچنین کاهش هزینه فرصت باروری برای زنان (در قالب کاهش نرخ اشتغال و افزایش نرخ اشتغال ناقص زنان) و بهبود توزیع درآمد سبب بهبود باروری در استان های ایران شده است.Introduction
In recent years, reducing the fertility rate has been one of the most important social policy concern in Iran. In this regard, one of the main reasons originates from the country's economic structure. Iran's population increased dramatically during the latter half of the 20th century, reaching about 80 million by 2016. In recent years, however, Iran's birth rate has dropped significantly. Studies project that Iran's rate of population growth will continue to slow until it stabilizes above 100 million by 2050. More than half of Iran's population is under 35 years old.
Islamic Republic of Iran has performed well on social indicators, especially in providing basic services such as health care and education. This country with 70 million people has undergone a substantial fertility decline in recent decades. In 1980, Iran’s total fertility rate was 6.58; however, it declined to 1.9 by 2006 with the most rapid decline during the 1990s. Iran’s fertility decline may have proceeded in the two stages of which the first one began in the late 1960s. The Iranian government introduced a family planning program during the 1960s with explicit health and demographic objectives. Between 1967 and 1977, fertility declined (mainly in urban areas) to an average of 4 children per woman. Although the family planning program continued after the 1979 Islamic revolution, it was suspended after the war broke out with Iraq in 1980 (World Bank, 2010).
Theoretical Framework
Economic recession has a multifaceted influence on fertility decisions. There is a substantial literature presenting the economic models of fertility, starting from a seminal work by Becker in the 1970s. Before Gary Becker, fertility choice was widely considered to be outside the realm of economic analysis. Apart from the intellectual tradition, one reason for this was that the data on fertility did not immediately suggest an economic mechanism. Becker (1960) argue that an economic model treating children as analogous to consumer durable materials such as cars or houses can explain the data. His paper departed from earlier theorizing on fertility by demographers and sociologists in two different and equally important ways. First, his analysis assumes that preferences are given. The assumption of given preferences is what puts the “economics” into Becker’s analysis. By ruling out shifts in tastes, Becker’s theory of fertility choice places the spotlight on changes in income and relative prices for explaining trends in fertility. The second departure from earlier theories is the focus of this essay, namely the concept of a quantity-versus-quality tradeoff in fertility choice. Its effects are often differentiated by gender, age (or a position in the life cycle), ethnic, migrant and social groups, and the number of children. Also the ‘opportunity costs’ of childbearing (time, skills and income for childcare and child-rearing) are differently affected by the recession among various social groups. Typically, fertility has a procyclical relationship with economic growth. The expanding literature on the effects of unemployment on childbearing suggests that experiencing unemployment leads to different childbearing propensity for men and women. For childless men, being unemployed or being out of the labor force negatively affects the propensity to become a father. This finding is also consistently reported in many studies of individual countries. Thus, if the main effect of unemployment is on income loss, the generous unemployment benefits or relatively high parental leave allowance reduce the costs of childbearing for the unemployed couples. This hypothesis is also supported by the findings linking the generous parental leave allowances with higher fertility.
Methodology
This study investigates the effect of economic variables (with emphasis on labor market variables, income distribution and housing service) on the fertility rate in the provinces of Iran during 1392-1384. In this study, panel data method was used.
In statistics and econometrics, panel data are multi-dimensional data involving measurements over time. Panel data contain observations of multiple phenomena obtained over multiple time periods (2005-2013) for the same individuals) i.e. Iran’s provinces).
Results & Discussion
The results show that the labor market indicators change people's opportunity cost. So have an effect on the income expectations, and will have an important role on fertility rate in the Iran’s provinces. An increase in the expected income of men in the form of reducing the risk of job loss (i.e. reducing volatility in the unemployment rate, the rate of male underemployment, and the share of male employment in the private sector) or the expected future revenue (i.e. increasing the male employment rate) has improved the fertility rate in Iranian provinces. On the other hand, the labor market variables for women of reduced risk (reducing volatility in the unemployment rate, the rate of female underemployment, and the share of female employment in the private sector ) has increased fertility rates. This has also reduced the opportunity cost of fertility for women and has promoted the income distribution to improve fertility in the provinces of Iran.
Conclusions & Suggestions
The results of this study indicate that economic variables have a significant effect on fertility rates. Therefore, policymakers can provide ways to increase fertility rates by changing economic variables. This experience has also been used in many countries. For example, reduced risk in the labor market; increased job stability; Job support for childbirth (women’s Maternity leave, Child allowance; Powerful Social Security et al.,), Improved income distribution policies.حسندلیریUniversity of Golestanدانشگاه گلستانIReco.hassan.daliri@gmail.com67-962018-07-2310.22067/erd.v25i15.59948برنامهریزی راهبردی ارتقاء جایگاه بخش سوم اقتصاد (وقف و امور خیریه) در راستای تأمین نیازهای بخش عمومی شهری با استفاده از تحلیل SWOT(مطالعه موردی شهر اصفهان)A Strategic Planning Process for Satisfaction of Urban Public Needs By Promoting the Third Sector (Waqf and Charity) Using the SWOT Analysisشهرداری به عنوان یک نهادِ بخش عمومی، وظیفه تولید و ارائه خدمات عمومی مورد نیاز شهر را بر عهده دارد. این نهاد برای جبران مخارج تولید کالاهای عمومی شهری، متکی به منابعی (درآمد) است که عمدتاٌ به صورت عوارض از شهروندان اخذ میکند، اما این شیوه تأمین مالی شهرداریهای ایران را با مشکلات فراوانی مواجه کرده است. بخش سوم اقتصاد میتواند به عنوان یک منبع پایدار مالی شیوه تأمین مالی شهرداریها را بهبود بخشد که نمود بارز بخش سوم اقتصاد در کشورهای اسلامی و کشور ما، وقف میباشد. هدف از این پژوهش ارائه راهبرد مناسب جهت ارتقاء جایگاه بخش سوم اقتصاد (وقف) در تأمین نیازهای بخش عمومی شهری میباشد که با فهرست نمودن نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصتها و تهدیدهای نهاد وقف شهری و ارزیابی آنها راهبردهای مناسب با استفاده از تحلیل SWOT استخراج گردیده و جهت انتخاب بهترین راهکار گزینه"اعتمادسازی" با وزن نسبی 347/0 با مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) معرفی شده است.Introduction
Municipality as a public sector has the duty of serving people and providing goods and necessary public services for the city (citizens) such as parks, urban cleaning, streets and highways, and so on. The growth of cities along with the increase in living standards will increase the citizens' needs. As a result, the municipality needs financial resources to produce more of these goods and services. The municipalities have been collecting taxes in various ways to finance their duties; however, collecting taxes has caused the economy of the city to face a lot of problems, including the rise in the price of goods and services. With the reduction of state aid since 1986, there has not been a good way to replace the new income sources of municipalities, which has reduced the ability of municipalities to provide services and perform urban projects. In order to reduce the adverse effects of taking the tolls, the economic studies were introduced determination of new sources of financing in the economic third sector for the urban public needs.
Theoretical framework
The study seeks to achieve a relatively comprehensive understanding of the activities of the subsystems of the third sector of the economy and the entrance of the third part of the economy and its symbol waqf to the services of the city and the municipality. In this regard, in order to achieve the objectives of the subject, we need an institutional definition called "urban waqf", and considering that the strategic planning process includes general principles and directions, evaluation of internal and external factors, attention of the main practitioners, identification and determination of Key issues, decision making, and continuous monitoring of the results. Therefore, most organization use a direct approach to determine strategic issues.
This approach involves moving straight from the weaknesses, strengths, situations and threats (SWOT) towards identifying the strategic issues. In other words, SWOT analysis is one of the strategic tools for matching the strengths and weaknesses of the internal factors with the opportunities and threats associated with the environmental factors. The SWOT analysis provides a systematic analysis to identify these factors and formulate a strategy which creates the best match for them. From the perspective of this model, a strengths of strategy and opportunities is maximized, and the weaknesses and threats are minimized. To this end, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are linked in the general framework of SO, WO, ST, and WT, and the strategy option is chosen from among them. By identifying the effective internal and environmental factors on waqf and their analysis by SWOT analysis, a comprehensive strategy can be found which will be used in strengthening the strengths and opportunities, and also will be used widely to meet the needs of the Urban public sector. considering the precision of categorization of factors and the choice of strategies according to the criteria and indicators in the AHP model (hierarchical analysis), the classification and selection of strategies has been taken to implement them in order to implement strategies and also to improve the position of the third part of the economy And its important element, Waqf, for the needs of the urban public sector in our country.
Methodology
The research method is a descriptive-survey method. In this way, the dimensions of the research problem can be investigated. The main tool for collecting information in this method is a questionnaire, which is one kind of survey method and one of the subcategories of the descriptive method. To collect the information about thematic literature and a;so strengths and weaknesses as well as threats and environmental opportunities, library method and Internet resources are used. in addition to the library method, the field method, questionnaires, interviews, establishment of technical committees And creating mental storm e used.
.Results & Discussion
This research, which was conducted for the first time in the field of the active institutions of the third sector in the urban area, provides a comprehensive approach for planning in these institutions in terms of the strategic aspects and the existing capabilities, capacities, and internal and external constraints. Due to the use of a hybrid approach, the relevant authorities in the municipality and the endowment organization have achieved a wide range of important scientific and organizational issues. The presence of a diverse range of executive administrators, experts and managers has made it possible to prioritize extractive strategies in this research based on the concerns of those who are interested in it.
As shown in the figure, the priority of options to improve the third sector in providing urban needs is listed in the following:
raise trust
cultural reform
institutional reform
transparency
ease of process
diversification
protection
According to the results of the prioritization, the trust and cultural reform have the most impact and the protection have the least effect on leading donations to the urban needs.
The two methods of raising trust and culture reform include the strategies that have the greatest effect on improving the status of the third sector in meeting the urban needs of Isfahan.
Conclusion
The main purpose of this research was to identify and prioritize appropriate strategies for improving the position of the third sector of the economy in meeting the needs of the urban public sector. To do this, internal and external factors were evaluated. In the matrix of the strategies and priorities of the executive, the internal and external environment assessment, the internal points of the system (2.31) and the outside environment (27 / 2), which is lower than the average (2.5) due to the general situation in both internal and external environments; therefore the conservative strategies were suggested. Furthermore, the Hierarchical analysis method was used to select the best strategy. As a result, the trust building option with a relative weight of 347/0 was introduced as the best method to improve the position of the third sector in financing urban services.
Based on the research results, one of the reasons for the lack of altruistic participation in providing urban needs is the government's impression of the municipality duties as well as the nonconfidence about the use of public assistance in the predefined path. Therefore, in line with the trust building plan the municipality's nongovernmental status needs to be highlighted and the areas of people's participation in providing their urban needs are to be introduced. It is also crucial to provide the necessary preparation for the feedback in order to raise trust between the citizens and the municipality.مهدیطغیانی دولت آبادیدانشگاه اصفهانUniversity of IsfahanIRmtoghyani@gmail.comآرزوآذریدانشگاه اصفهانUniversity of IsfahanIRarezu_azari@yahoo.com97-1262018-07-2310.22067/erd.v25i15.62836بررسی تأثیر تورم بر نابرابری درآمدی خانوارهای شهری ایران با رهیافت اتکینسونInvestigating the Effect of Inflation on Income Inequality of Urban Households in Iran Using the Atkinson Approachاین مطالعه به بررسی میزان تغییرات نابرابری درآمدی ناشی از تأثیر مستقیم تغییرات قیمت گروه های کالایی (تورم)، در میان دهک های مختلف درآمدی خانوارهای شهری ایران می پردازد. در این پژوهش از روش سیستم مخارج خطی و شاخص اتکینسون بهره گرفته شده است. داده های پژوهش در دوره زمانی 1394-1372 و به صورت سری زمانی جمع آوری شده است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از آن است که افزایش قیمت شدید (تورم های بالا)، نابرابری درآمدی را افزایش می دهد. همچنین در میان عوامل اثرگذار، تورم بیشترین تأثیر را در ایجاد نابرابری درآمدی داشته است (تقریباً 49 درصد).Introduction
This study investigates the changes in inequality caused by the direct impact of price changes of commodity groups among different income deciles of urban households in Iran. The importance of examining income inequality has forced governments to intervene in certain matters through the application of specific policies in terms of reducing economic inequality. The importance emanates from three aspects: 1) High income inequality not only causes the spread of economic instability but also it can hinder productivity growth; 2) In many studies, the reduction in income inequality is expressed in terms of growth and development. 3) The publication of statistics and extracts from poverty and economic inequity is important in centralizing people's attention to these issues.
Theoretical frame work
Indicators of inequality used to measure income inequality in a community do not pay attention to the elements making up this inequality and the relative contribution of each of them in terms of total inequality of income. In order to implement a policy of reducing inequality, the determinants of this inequality must be identified so that a more effective policy can be applied by prioritizing their relative importance in creating inequality. It has been proved that inflation is one of the factors affecting income distribution, and its effect should be measured on its own as one of the factors affecting income inequality. In this research, Atkinson index has been used. The research data were collected during the period of 1372-1392 and time series. If the Atkinson income inequality function, instead of the income of households in each decade, uses the equivalent household income per decade, The amount that the Atkinson formula will show for income inequality represents the effect of the total inequality factors minus the direct effect of prices on income inequality. Therefore, the inequality of equivalent income is defined as the effect of the sum of factors influencing income inequality minus the direct effect of prices. In this research, the demand function estimation has been done using the method of linear expenditure system (LES). Due to the non-observance of the distorted sentences, the normal distribution, and the simultaneous effect of disrupting the variables on each other, the seemingly unrelated equations are used to estimate the parameters of the demand function.
Methodology
1) To derive the demand relation, the Ston-Garri utility function is used. We maximize the utility function by limiting the budget.
2) Estimating the parameters of the demand function: One of the most important applications of SUR is to estimate the parameters of the consumption expenditure system of the household. In this study, there are eight major product categories, therefore, we will have eight equations
3)Extraction of equivalent income from the Ston-Garri function: After estimating the parameters, we obtain the equivalent income.It is the amount of income(expenditures), which is at the same level of the utility of original income (expenditures) (before the price change).This is presented at the level of new prices and is called equivalent revenue.
4( Calculation of Atkinson's inequality
5) The steps of calculating the direct effect of price changes on inequality
Results & Discussion
the direct influence of inflation (price changes) on income inequality is calculated. The average calculated value of this effect during the studied period is 48.8%, and this average represents the share of price changes or the share of inflation in income inequality. Therefore, commodity price changes (inflation) are the most fundamental factor in the variation in income inequality.
Conclusion
To solve the problem of income inequality, it is necessary to understand the constituent elements of the income inequality and the share of each of them in the total income inequality. The results indicate that the great price increase (high inflation) increases inequality. In addition, of the effective factors, increasing the price (inflation) has had the greatest impact on income inequality (almost 49 percent), while the remaining 51 percent relates to the rest of the factors (tax system, employment level, etc.) which are linked to the change in inequality. Regarding the above percentage, it is safe to say that price changes or inflation is one of the main factors accounting for the change in income inequality. Therefore, what policy makers should do to eliminate income inequality is to do their best to avoid inflationary policies.محمد رضاآرمان مهرShahrood University of Technologyدانشگاه صنعتی شاهرودIRarman1212002@gmail.comآسیهفرهمندمنشPayame Noor University of Mashhadدانشگاه پیام نور مشهدIRa.farahmandmanesh@gmail.com127-1522018-07-23