Document Type : مقالات پژوهشی
Author
Abstract
Analysis of Employment Changes and Its Future in Mashhad and Isfahan Metropolises
(1375 to 1385 )
Barat-Ali Khakpour
Assistance professor in Geography and Urban Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Mahdi Amel Bafandeh
M.A .student of Geography and Urban Planning, Isfahan University
Abstract
It aims at analyzing the occupational structure of the states and metropolises understudy through a descriptive-analytic approach by comparing each economical section with reference level (entire country occupation) and also each economical section with its counterpart in national scope to determine the relative superiority and competitive power of each section. Finally, a prediction of the future structure of the occupational groups in 1395 would be presented.
This study, with the application of census statistics and shift-share model, investigates the activity situation and determines the main activity groups in Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan states and two metropolises of Mashhad and Isfahan during the period of 1375 to 1385.
The results indicate that from 16 main activity groups in states of Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan and urban areas of Mashhad and Isfahan, 1, 3, 6, 7 groups have a national (coefficient B) and local (coefficient C) positive growth coefficient respectively. These groups, possessing a potential economic growth for the region, are called economic winners. Nevertheless, there are also the economic losers including seven sections in Khorasan Razavi, five sections in Isfahan, two sections in urban area of Mashhad and one section in Isfahan metropolis. These areas have the negative coefficient B (combined part effect) and negative coefficient C (competitive effect) and will soon lose their part in the region occupation.
Keywords: shift-share model, occupational structure, activity groups, reference economy, local economy.
JEL: O11, O21, J21
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