Nasrin Omidi; Hadi Qavami; Mahmood Hoshmand; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
The present paper has two main purposes. The first purpose is to investigate the possibility of using the FLQ method (to calculate the interindustry transactions matrix) at the same time with the use of regional statistical accounts of the country (to calculate the rest of sectors of the regional input-output ...
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The present paper has two main purposes. The first purpose is to investigate the possibility of using the FLQ method (to calculate the interindustry transactions matrix) at the same time with the use of regional statistical accounts of the country (to calculate the rest of sectors of the regional input-output tables). The second goal is to calculate input-output table of North Khorasan province based on it, because this province, with a very low degree of development, is in the group with the first priority of the country planning. For this purpose, the national input-output table (2016) of the Central Bank of Iran has been separated by imports and the regional accounts of the same year of the Statistics Center of Iran have been used as the basis for calculations. For this purpose, the computational method used in the article of Banuoei et al. (2017) was examined. The present paper presents a new proposed method for calculating the regional data-output table using the FLQ method, so that it is fully consistent with the regional accounts of the country and the column balance of the table is maintained. In this method, not only the regional value added vector is statistically included in the table, but also the statistical vector of intermediate consumption of the region is used. The results of the paper also show that the method for calculating the intermediate import vector is introduced in that paper; first, it has neglected to interpret the trading coefficient, second, leads to the elimination of the spatial dimensions of the region in the region intermediate consumption vector. This claim was investigated for North Khorasan province. Findings indicate that the regional intermediate consumption vector of the province in this method can be obtained directly by using the matrix of national national input-output coefficients without the intervention of the FLQ matrix, which shows the ineffectiveness of the spatial economic dimensions of the region in the calculations.The first scenario is defined according to the interpretation of the coefficients and the relationship between them. This scenario solves both the problem of elimination of the spatial dimensions and the inattention to the interpretation of the coefficients. The second scenario is defined as the difference between the input-output coefficients of the region and the domestic input-output coefficients of the region. This scenario solves only the first problem. By comparing the errors of intermediate consumption of North Khorasan province resulting from them, the first scenario is suggested due to less statistical errors.
azadeh ramezani; Mahmood Houshmand; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
Expended Abstract:
Introduction
Nowadays, the tourism industry has been on the agenda as an essential economic entity to provide material resources for countries. The tourism boom in each region depends on national and regional conditions and features, including government policies, social, cultural, ...
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Expended Abstract:
Introduction
Nowadays, the tourism industry has been on the agenda as an essential economic entity to provide material resources for countries. The tourism boom in each region depends on national and regional conditions and features, including government policies, social, cultural, and political factors in each region, natural and historical attractions, quantity and quality of services provided to tourists. As a result, due to the emergence of various facilities needed by the tourists, a situation to increase employment, economic income and thus improve the whole region's situation can be provided. As one of the largest and most diverse employment and income-generating industry, the tourism industry has been paid attention by many countries as an achievable goal in the sustainable development process. In this regard, Mashhad city has various and proper historical, cultural, and natural attractions for attracting tourists. These attractions, however, have the potential to attract tourists; but the prosperity of the tourism industry also depends on the quantity and quality of the tourism industry infrastructure and the facilities and services provided.
Theoretical Framework
The tourism industry has played an important role in encouraging investment in infrastructures, generating revenue for the government, and direct and indirect employment generation worldwide. Today, attracting foreign tourists has become an increasing competition among institutions involved in the tourism industry. Because this industry not only plays a role in promoting the national economy and foreign exchange earnings but is a clean and pollution-free industry and at the same time creates new tourism occupations for countries with tourist attractions such as Iran and can become the most important source of foreign exchange earnings; provided that proper and comprehensive planning coupled with foresight is set and implemented for it. The industry also has the potential to be replaced by the single-product economy, i.e., oil revenues.
Domingues et al. (2014) discussed the competitiveness of tourists’ destinations and compared Spain and Australia. The results show that in Australia, the quality of services, commercial brands, and appropriate infrastructure is very important for attracting tourists, and the climate and local tourist structures are the most important issues in attracting tourists in Spain. Tyrväinen et al. (2014) surveyed tourist destinations in northern Lapland, Finland, regarding environmental preferences and tourist accommodation. In a survey of 1,054 domestic and foreign tourists, respondents emphasized the relationship between accommodation and nature, green infrastructures, easy access to their accommodation site, and the environment's quality in choosing their destination. Therefore, one of the few natural attractions with pleasant and eye-catching views is Haft Howz Natural Park, located in the southeast of Mashhad in the Khalaj Mountains' heart. Its name has been chosen due to the existence of natural ponds created over the years in the heart of this region's rocks.
Methodology
The present paper aims to prioritize economic strategies to improve the Haft Howz region's tourist attraction, including 28 factors, which consist of 4 main criteria including infrastructure, investment, socio-economic, and marketing. Fifteen experts and Managers of the Haft Howz region were interviewed, then a questionnaire based on the AHP method was provided, and finally, the questionnaires were analyzed in Expert Choice software.
Conclusions and Suggestions
As mentioned before, the tourism industry, especially for developing communities, is both an opportunity and a threat. Also, it is a powerful incentive for socioeconomic progress. The studies show that regarding the fundamental problems, including problems related to infrastructures, problems related to investment and management, socioeconomic and marketing problems, Iran's ecotourism program's goals will not be achieved. Since the metropolis of Mashhad, as the largest shrine in the country, annually receives 10 to 15 million pilgrims, an effective step can be taken for the economic development of Mashhad city by applying appropriate policies in the field of the tourism industry. Identifying and prioritizing economic solutions of tourist attraction in Haft Howz Region of Mashhad, which has undeniable importance in helping respective authorities and planners promote this region, have been discussed.
The AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) results to identify indexes weights indicate that as per the region’s experts and managers, indexes of infrastructure, investment, socioeconomic, and marketing are important and have priority in ranking indexes, respectively. The results of the ranking of all economic sub-criteria for upgrading the tourist attraction of Haft Howz region of Mashhad showed that the sub-criteria of securing and improving the entrances and upgrading public transportation from inside the city to the region, providing adequate and proper public health facilities and upgrading infrastructure equipment (parking, water supply, gas supply, proper lighting and the like) are placed in the first to third priorities respectively. The upgrade, completion, and reconstruction of historical monuments of the region are the last priority. Therefore, researchers are suggested to conduct a study to analyze the operational suggestions for removing regional barriers to improve the region.
Seyyed Abdollah razavi; mostafa salami far
Abstract
Introduction The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil andtherefore in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for using the windfall profits affected major oil producers more than ...
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Introduction The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil andtherefore in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for using the windfall profits affected major oil producers more than any other group because the index of crude oil pricing was always in change. This volatility not only affected their sale market in the spot market but also the obtained revenue from sales of their long-term contracts that were also established a base on the same index. Therefore, manufacturers' revenue faces with instability. Also given the vital role of volatility in financial markets, there has been considerable attention to the analysis of volatility forecasts in recent years. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of financial markets on the behavior of Iran's light crude oil price in the market of East regions, northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. Due to high share of oil revenues in GDP in Iran, as well as high dependence of government budget to oil revenues, any volatility in world prices of oil creates severe disorders in development plans and annual plans of the country, which in turn is led to structural bottleneck in the long term. Methodology Scuch (1974) for the first time pointed to the importance of macroeconomic and financial factors role in the price of agricultural products. But in all subsequent papers, the exchange rate was known as the only mechanism of transmitting monetary policy to the price of agricultural products Chambers and Just (1981, 1982). Monetary policy, even in a closed economy, also affects the price of products such as agricultural products and other basic commodities. The theory indicates that there exists a relationship between the interest rate and the real spot price of oil over the long-term trend. In the framework of this theory, when interest rate increases, the extraction of natural resources increases. The increase in oil supply intensifies the reduction of oil price. This process continues until the beneficiaries (exporters) believe that oil price closes to the final cost of withdrawal. In this situation, there is the expectation of increasing the real oil price so exports reduce and the real price of oil increases to reach the long-term adjusted level. The current model is the model of investigating the effect of monetary policy on basic commodities such as oil. The model shows the negative impact of real interest rate and the positive impact of the expected growth rate of the money supply. Stevens (1995) argues that there have been developments in the oil market from 1980 onwards and by forming and expanding the oil bourses, the oil market has changed to the competitive market and the mechanism of forming the crude oil price has changed that have increased the prices. Moreover, the increase in non-OPEC production has intensified the price volatility and mechanism of forming prices has basically changed after 1980 in such a way that the previous models of forming crude oil prices cannot justify the changes in this period. Therefore, it is necessary to form novel models to include new conditions. Frankel (2010) states that one of the important factors in explaining the behavior of crude oil price in short term can be attributed to changing in the interest rate so that in short term changing interest rate causes deviation in the direction of crude oil price from the balanced way. The process is created by changes in the interest rate that is mainly due to the monetary policy of open market in the Federal Reserve, for example, reducing of interest rate encourages the increase of bonds purchase, which in turn its price increases due to the increase of demand for bonds. Because the bond price has an inverse relationship with the interest rate of bonds, causing the leading of cash flow to the futures market, and its price increases. In the meantime, the decision on the purchase of spot or future of crude oil, in particular, will be taken into consideration to purchasers. Thus, if the obtained cost of maintaining crude oil is more than the profit in the futures market, deal with to purchase future contracts. The reverse can also happen. So it can be said that first, the interest rate is caused volatility in the bond market by changing in the monetary market and then, it has affected future markets, stock, and oil. Therefore, in short-term, changes in the interest rate cause the price deviance from the long-term direction. This means that long-term behavior is determined by fundamental factors, but in short-term, it may be the case that the price is lower or higher than the long-term direction that is due to changes of rate interest. Results The results of the test showed that the difference between the actual price of Iranian crude oil in the northwest market of Europe with its predicted price based on the first and second models has a more favorable situation than the difference in the third and fourth models. The RMSE index for the first and second models is 1.04 and 1.03, respectively. Since in this method, the index indicates a prediction error, therefore, a model with less error than the other, has higher predictive accuracy. So, it can be said that the second model has better predictive power than other models. Therefore, it is suggested that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) determines its light oil price formula in the northwestern market based on the second model, which will determine the country's crude oil price in this market due to differences in the quality differences of Saudi Arabia's crude oil with Iran, price differences of Brent crude oil with ICE1, usual crude oil price changes and contangoand backwardation Brent structure.
Akram Dartoomi; Mostafa Salimifar; SAEED MALEKOSADATI
Abstract
Introduction
One of the most important challenges in the Iranian labor market is the phenomenon of education-job mismatch, which is reflected as the inequality between the educated labor force and the workforce needed in the labor market. This is despite the fact that in recent decades, according ...
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Introduction
One of the most important challenges in the Iranian labor market is the phenomenon of education-job mismatch, which is reflected as the inequality between the educated labor force and the workforce needed in the labor market. This is despite the fact that in recent decades, according to the country's macro policies, too many resources have been allocated to human resources training, especially at higher education level. The presence of such conditions for the employment of higher education graduates and the lack of due attention to the need for acquiring job skills in the labor market have resulted in a higher unemployment rate for the higher education graduates than for other groups. The most important outcome of this phenomenon is the education-job mismatch.
Education-job mismatch appears in two forms in society: vertical mismatch and horizontal mismatch. Vertical mismatch means the level of education or skill of higher education graduates is more or less than the needs of the society. For example, the country needs workers with bachelor's degree, but the workforce may have higher or lower levels of education. Horizontal mismatch means the field of education or skills of workforce does not correspond to the labor market needs. For example, the country needs agriculture-related graduates, while job seekers are educated in other fields. Among the two types of mismatch mentioned, this paper chose to examine the vertical mismatch between education and occupation. It also intended to measure the scope of the mismatch in some cities of the country and to identify some of the most important factors affecting it.
Method
The present paper pursues two main goals. The first one is to measure the mismatch of education and job and the second is to identify the factors affecting it. For this purpose, the paper takes two general steps. In the first step, the research variables are calculated using the data obtained from the Ian’s Population and Housing census. In the second step, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable, education-job mismatch, is analyzed using an econometric model. It should be noted that econometric models are estimated annually for individual cities of the country.
This paper uses one of the three methods of measuring mismatch: job Analysis, realized matches and self-assessment. Each of these methods has inherent limitations and difficulties, and none has absolute superiority over the other methods. The choice of method depends on the nature and characteristics of the available data. Considering all available data, this paper uses job analysis method. This method makes a relationship between job needs and education levels using ISCO and ISCED classifications.
Thus, having calculated the mismatch by job analysis method, the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable is estimated using the spatial econometric model. The research variables are: Education-Job Mismatch (EJM), Relative Supply of Educated Labor Force (RSEL), Relative Demand of Educated Labor Force (RDEL), Regional Specialization Index (RS), Standardized Unemployment Rate (SU), and share of older (50–70 years old) (X1), female (X2), and rural (X3) workers.
Discussion and Results
The results of this study suggest that due to the different reasons such as economic, social, and political conditions on the one hand and labor market conditions and labor force characteristics on the other hand, the country has faced job-occupation mismatch in different cities in 1996, 2006, and 2011. This phenomenon occurred due to the lack of educated labor force in the labor market and the shortage of supply and excess demand for labor in 1996. However, in 2006, this shortage declined, as the willingness to higher education increased. Finally, in 2011, educated labor force increased significantly and the education-job mismatch resulted in the excess supply and the shortage of demand. In other words, this phenomenon emerged as undereducation in 1996 and overeducation in 2006 and 2011.
Also, the results of spatial econometric model demonstrated that RSEL had significant negative effects on EJM in 1996 and 2006 and insignificant positive effects in 2011. However, RDEL had a positive and insignificant effect on EJM in 1996 and 2006 and significant negative effects in 2011. Other independent variables had positive effects on the education-job mismatch.
Conclusion
In the present paper, using the data obtained from Iranian Population and Housing Census in the years 1996, 2006, and 2011, the education-job mismatch was calculated in the cities of the country and the affecting factors were identified. The results of the research indicate that if the society faces with a shortage of educated workforce, the relative supply of educated labor will reduce the mismatch and the relative demand of educated labor will increases it. Also, when the country faces a surplus of educated workforce, the relative supply of educated labor increases the mismatch and the relative demand of educated labor reduces it. This is while the number of higher education graduates is increasing rapidly leading to the greater education-job mismatch. To resolve the problem and to reduce the mismatch, it is important to improve communication between universities and educational centers with the labor market, and to remove the barriers to job creation, investment in technology and skill sectors, and workforce mobility between different jobs, occupations and geographical areas.
seyed mahdi pazham; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Economic growth and development has always been being a major goal of policy makers. They have always been seeking factors to increase growth's speed. There are some different theories that each one, account of some kinds of factors related to the growth. In the earlier ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Economic growth and development has always been being a major goal of policy makers. They have always been seeking factors to increase growth's speed. There are some different theories that each one, account of some kinds of factors related to the growth. In the earlier of growth literature theories, the focus was on two factors: physical capital and labor. But these theories couldn't exactly explain the persist gap between different countries ‘per capita income. This cause to more pay attentions to some other factors that are seemingly insensible in the first glance. The advent of knowledge- oriented economics is the outcome of this new vision on growth field. In modern economics, knowledge is the main factor in production function. There are some indicators to measure the knowledge applied in a country's products. Economic complexity index is one of them. This article wants to examine the effect of this variable on economic growth. For this, the article examine growth model by using panel econometrics technique during 1996-2012 for 42 Chosen Countries (The top 42 countries producing science).
The structure of this paper, in theoretical basis, is to examine the ideas of economists in the world and background research, furthermore, Economic Complexity Index and check out selected countries in this indicator, research and study models will be introduced. Final section will be devoted to analyzing the results and conclusions estimates.
Theoretical Frame Work
As seen in all of these theories, knowledge has always been considered the engine of economic growth in two ways on the production and consequently affects economic growth: as a new production or to increase the overall productivity of production factors.
Since 2006, a group of authors began to explore the extensive economic growth based on the idea of "the products" and "complexity economics" were. The group's research led to the extraction of economic complexity Index (Hidalgo and other, 2007). Based on this thinking, the most important determinant of the level of development of each country, based on its knowledge of the country. Knowledge means of a stream of experiences, values, and attitudes expert information system is a framework to evaluate and take advantage of the experience and new information gives (APEC.2002).
Methodology
In this study, data from the first 42 countries in the production of knowledge is analyzed. Period of study 2012-1996 Ast years. Statistics variables above except the index of economic complexity, for all the countries in the study were collected from the site of the World Bank. In order to avoid bias said, be on the side of the complexities of economic and other factors affecting economic growth are properly specified model.
According to the theoretical literature on the factors affecting economic growth, the most important variables affecting economic growth in the countries studied, per capita physical capital formation (CF), government size (GE), human capital (LE), the volume of trade (TRAD), in addition to the economic complexity index (ECI) growth models have been added.
Econometric research process consists of three steps:
1. Cross-sectional data unit root test
2. The accumulation of data on cross-examination, if not stationary variables
In the case of co-integration vector accumulation estimate coefficients of the variables
Results and Discussion
As mentioned, according to the estimated model, the relationship between economic growth and negative economic complexity index, and this is unexpected. To investigate the cause of the issue, again a model for cross cutting (Cross-Section) estimated that the estimated model, the relationship between these two variables is positive and significant for the years after 2006. For a certain period and between different countries is presented. The results show using panel data technique is not appropriate, however cross-section estimation of model shows positive effect of Economic complexity index on economic growth.
Conclusions & Suggestions
In advanced economies contemporary knowledge in the development and growth of the country's annual production (GDP), played a key role stems. Economic Complexity Index, an indicator for measuring the amount of product used in a country. In this study, the relationship between these indicators and economic growth top 42 countries in the production of a 17-year period (2012-1996) and related techniques using panel data consists of panel unit root, panel Hm Anbashtgy , Has been studied. The results of research panel data; on the contrary the index suggests a negative relationship with economic growth of the countries that represent the inappropriate use of panel data in this research model. But the results of cross-sectional data model represents a significant and positive relationship between these variables on economic growth.
Economy reaching a middle-income country in the world, due to the unlimited supply of natural production factors (eg oil and abundant labor force) and rely on a certain level of production and industries heavily on its user.
hasan rezaee; mostafa salimifar
Abstract
Development of financial markets as an important factor in the economic growth process always has been of interest to economists. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth. This study uses provincial annual data over the period 2000-2011 ...
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Development of financial markets as an important factor in the economic growth process always has been of interest to economists. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth. This study uses provincial annual data over the period 2000-2011 by using panel data technique. The panel co integration techniques have been used to test and estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and the financial development indicators.
The results show that long-run positive relationship exists between the variables of insurance, banking and stock with economic growth. There is no Short- run causality from stock market to banking sector, But there is bidirectional causality between other variables in the short run and long run. In the long-run, volatility of GDP mainly described by the Impulse of GDP (59.7%), stock (29.74%) and little amount (0.5%) by bank ing development.
Roohollah Babaki; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
Abstract
Production is a process by which a productive activity will require some conditions (before and after the start of the production). One of the most important pre-required factors for start up a production unit is suitable Business Environment. One of the most important factors that must be ...
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Abstract
Production is a process by which a productive activity will require some conditions (before and after the start of the production). One of the most important pre-required factors for start up a production unit is suitable Business Environment. One of the most important factors that must be provided after the start of production -During the production process and the time to market and export- is economic freedom.
Hence, this paper explores the impact of Business Environment and economic freedom on economic growth in 30 selected countries during 2004-2013. Panel data estimation results indicate that Business Environment and economic freedom have positive and significant relationship with economic growth.
Our findings show that the impact of economic freedom on economic growth is greater than the Business Environment.
Keywords: Business Environment, Economic Freedom, Economic Growth, Panel Data
JEL Classification: C23, K20, O41, O50
