نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
2 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 دانشکده مهندسی برق و مهندسی پزشکی دانشگاه صنعتی سجاد و معاون برنامه ریزی و تحقیقات شرکت برق منطقه‌ای خراسان
چکیده
در این پژوهش با بررسی ویژگی های اقلیمی منطقه خراسان و مجاورت این منطقه با استان های کشور (سمنان، سیستان، یزد و مازندران) و کشورهای خارجی (ترکمنستان و افغانستان)، در کنار بررسی شرایط فنی-اقتصادی تولید برق هیبرید فسیلی-تجدیدپذیر، تأثیر اجرای سیاست های افق چشم انداز 1410 انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر برق منطقه ای خراسان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج شبیه سازی سیستم تولید نشان می دهد اجرای این سیاست ها، حجم بهینه صادراتی بین منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای 62/18 تراوات ساعتی را به دنبال خواهد داشت که 32/2 تراوات ساعت از این بهینه صادراتی به دلیل اجرای سیاست-های افق چشم انداز ایجاد خواهد شد. این افزایش 14 درصدی بهینه صادراتی بین منطقه ای و فرامنطقه-ای، ایجاد 5000 شغل در منطقه خراسان و افزایش قیمت تمام شده 32 درصدی را نیز به همراه دارد، ولی تأثیر چندانی بر کاهش انتشار آلاینده زیست محیطی نخواهد داشت. علت عدم کاهش قابل توجه حجم آلاینده، محدود بودن توان تجدیدپذیر ورودی به سیستم تولید و علت افزایش قابل توجه قیمت نیز هزینه سرمایه گذاری بالای تولید برق خورشیدی و بادی است که حمایت مالی جدی از پروژه های فنی-مهندسی بادی و خورشیدی و تسهیم هزینه تولید با مشترکان را می طلبد. از سوی دیگر، افزایش ظرفیت-های تولید به حداکثر پتانسیل، به‌منظور مقابله با ماهیت نوسانی تولید تجدیدپذیر، راه کاری اساسی برای توسعه حقیقی تولید برق تجدیدپذیر به شمار می رود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Effects of the 2030 Renewable Energyies Outlook Implementation for Renewable Energies in Hybrid System of Khorasan’s Regional Electric Company
نویسندگان [English]
- mahdi ghaemiasl 1
- mostafa salimifar 2
- mostafa rajabi mashhadi 3
- Mohammad Hossien Mahdavi Adeli 2
1 Assistant Professor in Economics and Islamic Banking Department, Economics Faculty, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Management & Economic Sciences Faculty, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Electrical Engineering Faculty, Sadjad university of technology
چکیده [English]
Renewable energy is derived from the natural processes that are replenished constantly. In its various forms, it derives directly from the sun, or from the deep heat generated from the earth. It isdefined as the electricity and heat being generated from solar, wind, ocean, hydropower, biomass, geothermal resources, biofuels, and the obtained hydrogen from the renewable resources. The renewable energy resources exist over the wide geographical areas in contrast to other energy sources, which are concentrated in a limited number of countries. The rapid deployment of the renewable energy and energy efficiency result in the significant energy security, climate change mitigation, and the economic benefits. The results of a recent review of the literature concluded that as the greenhouse gas (GG) emitters begin to be held liable for the damages emerging from GHG emissions in which lead to the climate change, the liability mitigation value would increase to provide powerful the incentives for the deployment of renewable energy technologies. At the national level, at least 30 nations around the world have already renewable energy contributing to more than 20% of energy supply. The national renewable energy markets are projected to continue to grow strongly in the coming decade and beyond while some 120 countries have various policy targets for the longer-term shares of the renewable energy including the 20 percent of the targeted electricity generated from the European Union by 2020. Some countries have much higher long-term policy targets of up to 100 percent renewables. Outside Europe, a diverse group of 20 or more other countries have targeted the renewable energy shares in the 2020-2030 rangimg from 10 to 50 percent.
This study is an investigation of the climatic characteristics of the regions of Khorasan and the neighboring areas within the interior regions (Semnan, Sistan, Yazd, and Mazandaran) as well as the foreign regions (Turkmenistan and Afghanistan). Besides, it is probingthe technical-economic conditions of the renewable-fossil hybrid power generation along with the impact of the implementation of 2030 renewable energy outlook policies of Khorasan regional electricity hybrid production system as well.
Methodology
Analytic programming was inspired by the numerical methods in Hilbert functional spaces and by GP. The principles of AP are somewhere between these two philosophies: The idea of the evolutionary creation of symbolic solutions arise from GP, whereas the general ideas of the functional spaces and the construction of the resulting function by means of a search process (usually done by the numerical methods such as Ritz or Galerkin method) are adopted from Hilbert spaces. Like GP or GE, AP is based on a set of functions, operators and so-called terminals, which are usually constants or independent variables. All these ‘mathematical’ objects create a set from which AP tries to synthesize an appropriate solution. The main principle of AP is based on Discrete Set Handling (DSH), proposed by Zelinka (2001). DSH can be seen as a universal interface between EA and the problem to be solved symbolically. That is, why AP can be carried out using almost any evolutionary algorithm. The set of the mathematical objects are functions, operators and so-called terminals (usually constants or independent variables). All these objects are mixed together consisting of functions with different number of arguments. Because of the variability of the content of this set, the article purposes of General Functional Set (GFS) is required. The structure of GFS is nested, for instance, it is created by the subsets of functions according to the number of their arguments. The content of GFS is dependent only on a user. Various functions and terminals can be mixed together. The subset structure presence in GFS is vitally important in AP. It is used to avoid the synthesis of the pathological programs, for instance, programs containing functions without arguments, etc. Performance of AP is, of course, improved if functions of GFS are expertly chosen based on the experiencies with the solved problem. The important part of the AP is the sequence of mathematical operations which are used for the program synthesis. These operations are used to categorize the individuals of the society into a suitable program. Mathematically saying, it is mapping the individual domain onto the program domain. This mapping consists of two main parts. The first part is called Discrete Set Handling (DSH) and the second one is the security procedures which do not allow for the pathological programs synthesis.
Results and discussion
Simulation results show that the implementation of 2030 renewable energyies outlook policies will lead to 18.62 TWh optimal inter-regional and trans-regional exports which 2.32 TWh of this optimal export will be generated because of implementation of 2030 renewable energy outlook policies. This 14 percent increase in the inter-regional and trans-regional exports creates 5,000 jobs in Khorasan and increases the associated cost by 32 percent, but there would be little impact on the environmental emissions’ reduction. The related reason for this insignificant reduction in the environmental emissions is the low limited renewable power generation in the production system. Besides, thereason for the significant increase in the price is the high capital cost of the solar and wind production which needs strong financial support from the technical-engineering wind and the solar projects as they share the cost of production with the customers. The maximum potential production capacity in order to cope with the fluctuating nature of the renewable generation, is thebasic attempt for the development of the renewable electricity generation.
Conclusion
Most of the world's leading countries in the field of renewable energy have used Feed-in Tariff to create an affordable price for the renewable power generation systems. It achieves this by offering long-term contracts to renewable energy producers, typically, based on the cost of generation of each technology. In addition, feed-in tariffs often include tariff degression which is amechanism according to which the price (or tariff) ratchets down over time. This is done in order to track and encourage the technological cost reductions. Also, developing the required financial incentives and promoting the standards for connecting the renewable sources to the grid is called for. In addition, the rules regarding the sharing of costs with the common network can also provide the necessary legal and technical infrastructure to make the hybrid production system.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Simulation of regional power system
- hybrid fossil-renewable production
- power system Outlook
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