مقایسه عملکرد ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص و ضرایب فزاینده خالص در اقتصاد منطقه‌ای (مطالعه موردی: استان مرکزی)

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• علی آزادی نژاد ¹
• سید یحیی ابطحی ²

¹ دانشگاه آیت الله حایری میبد

² دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی یزد

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.v25i15.62825

چکیده

جدول داده- ستانده، روشی مناسب برای شناسایی بخش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد منطقه‌ای است. از جدول داده- ستانده ضرایب فزاینده تقاضا و عرضه استخراج می‌گردد که این ضرایب فزاینده قادر به محاسبه بخش‌های پیشرو طرف تقاضا و طرف عرضه و درنهایت محاسبه بخش‌های کلیدی هستند. ضرایب فزاینده‌ها را می‌توان به دو دسته ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص (سنتی) و ضرایب فزاینده خالص (ابتکار Oosterhaven, Stelder) تقسیم کرد. این مقاله ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص و خالص را برای استان مرکزی محاسبه نموده است. نتایج مقاله نشان می‌دهد در بحث منطقه‌ای (استان) ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص عملکرد مناسب‌تری نسبت به ضرایب فزاینده خالص دارند. ضرایب فزاینده خالص تنها فعالیت‌های اقتصادی را به دو گروه عرضه محور و تقاضا محور تقسیم می‌کند و بدین ترتیب ضرایب فزاینده خالص قادر به ساختن بخش‌های کلیدی استانی در ایران نیست؛ درحالی‌که ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص فعالیت‌های اقتصادی منطقه را در چهار گروه قرار داده و قادر به ساختن بخش‌های کلیدی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• ضرایب فزاینده خالص
• ضرایب فزاینده ناخالص
• بخشهای کلیدی
• اقتصاد منطقه‌ای
• جدول داده- ستانده

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparing Gross Multiplier Coefficients with Net Multiplier Coefficients in terms of Regional Economy (Case study: Markazi Province)

نویسندگان [English]

• Ali Azadinejad ¹
• Sayed Yahya Abtahi ²

¹ Maybod university

² Islamic Azad University of Yazd

چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract
Input-outputtable is a suitable way to identify the key sectors of regional economy. Multiplier coefficients of demand and supply extracted from input-output table may be used to calculate the innovating sectors of demand and supply and consequentially their key sectors. Multiplier coefficients are classified as gross and net (innovated by Oosterhaven&Stelder, 2002).. This study attempts to calculate the gross and net multiplier coefficients for the province of Markazi. The results show that for regional studies the gross multiplier coefficients work better than the net multiplier coefficients. The net multiplier coefficients divide economic activities in two groups of supply or demand; therefore, they cannot be used to create regional key sectors in Iran. However, the gross multiplier coefficients divide the regional economic activities into four groups and can be used to identify the key sectors in Iran.

Methodology
Regional analysis is, in fact, an important branch of economics. One of the most common methods for studying regional economics is the use of regional input-output tables. To identify key sectors, the multiplier coefficients of supply and demand are used. The multiplier coefficients derived from the output-output table are called grossmultiplier coefficients. In this sense, Oosterhaven and Stelder(2002) haverecently introduced a new version called net multiplier coefficients.
In a n-section economy, the relation between sections is expressed in the formula when x is the level of production, A is the technical coefficients Matrix, and f is the final demand. When the equation is solved, the Leontief formula ( ) would be obtained. The gross multiplier coefficient is computed from the sum of the Leontief matrix column. This equation is .where is the gross multiplier coefficient of demand and i is a row vector of one. Oosterhaven and Stelder believe that the application of these coefficients in determining the economic importance of a sector leads to an overestimation of the importance of that part.
Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) introduce the net multiplier coefficient with where is the gross multiplier coefficient of demand,while is a diagonal matrix where its main diameter is filled by the ratio of final demand to output . Dietzenbacher and Miller (2009) haveproved that if net multiplier coefficient of a sector is greater than one, means that this sector very dependent to other sectors.. It is safe to say that the net multiplier has the ability to interpret interdependence among the sections.

Results
After calculating the net and gross multiplier coefficients for Markazi Province, interesting results were obtained from net multiplier coefficients and gross multiplier coefficients. Gross multiplier coefficients classified the sectors into four groups where the first cell reports the key sectors. Key sectors in gross multiplier are:
“Manufacture of paper and paper products”;“Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products”;“Manufacture of basic metals”;“Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment”;“Manufacture of machinery and equipment" and “Electricity“
There is no key section in net multiplier coefficients. The net multiplier coefficients divide economic activities in two groups of supply or demand and as result cannot be used to create regional key sectors in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• input-output table
• regional economy
• gross multiplier coefficients
• net multiplier coefficients

مراجع

[1] Azadinejad A, Assari A, Jahangard E. (2013). " Identifying key sector in khorasan razavi province with a new intersection method and compare with AFLQ method ". Economics and Regional Development, No 5, PP: 168-188, Mashhad, Iran. (in Persian).

[2] Banouei, A. A., Bazzazan, F & Karami, M. (2006). "A Quantitative Study on the Relationship between Space Economy and Input-Output Coefficients in 28 Provinces of the Country", Iranian Journal of Economic Research, No. 29, PP: 143-170. (In Persian)

[3] Banouei, A. A., Jelodari Mamaghani, M, Mohagheghi,M. (2007). " Identification of key sectors based on the traditional and modern approaches of demand and supply side economies". Economic research(Growth and Sustainable Development), No 22, PP: 1-26.Iran, (in Persian).

[4] Dietzenbacher E. and Miller R.E. (2009). RAS-ing the transactions or the coefficients: it makes no difference, Journal of Regional Science, 49, 555−566.

[5] Flegg A. T. and Webber C. D. (1997). On the appropriate use of location quotients in generating regional input−output tables: reply, Regional Studies 31, 795−805.

[6] Flegg A. T. and Webber C. D. (2000). Regional size, regional specialization and the FLQ formula, Regional Studies 34, 563−569.

[7] Ghelbash, M. (2010). “Comparing Net multiplier Coefficients with Gross multiplier Coefficients in Determining Key sectors of Iran: An Input-Output Approach “. MA Dissertation, Allameh tabatabaee university, Faculty of Economics, Tehran. (in Persian)

[8] Ghosh, A. (1958). “Input–output approach in an allocation system”, Economical, 25: 58–64.

[9] Hirschman, A.O. (1958). "The Strategy of Economic Development". Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, USA.

[10] Jahangard E. (1998). “Identifeing key sectors in the economy of Iran in a program of economic development ".Program and Budget Journal. No 31,32. PP: 99-123, 1998. (in Persian)

[11] Jahangard E. (2002). “Identify key sectors in the industrial of Iran ". Economic Research and Policy. No 21. PP:45-70, Tehran. Iran. (in Persian)

[12] McCann P. and Dewhurst J. H. L. (1998). Regional size, industrial location and input−output expenditure coefficients, Regional Studies 32, 435−444.

[13] Mesnard L. (2007). Reply to Oosterhaven's: The Net Multiplier is a New Key Sector Indicator. Annals of Regional Science,vol.41, No 41,PP:249-271.

[14] Miller R. E. and Blair P. D. (2009). Input−Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, 2nd edition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[15] Oosterhaven J. and Hoen A.R. (1998). Preferences, technology, trade and real income changes in the European Union: an intercountry decomposition analysis for 1975−1985, Annals of Regional Science 32, 505−524.

[16] Oosterhaven, J. (2006). A new approach to the selection of key sectors: China, South Korea, the Netherlands, the United States. In: Paper to be presented at the 53rdNorth American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, November 2006, Toronto

[17] Oosterhaven, J., Stelder, D. (2002b). Net multipliers avoid exaggerating impacts: with a bi-regional illustration for the Dutch transportation sector. J Reg Sci 3:533–543

[18] Piraste, H., khoshakhlagh, R. (2003). ”Construction of Regional Input-Output Table by the Use of Grit Methodology”, proceeding of the second input-output tables and its application, economic research center, Allameh tabatabaee university, Tehran, Iran (in Persian).

[19] Pirmoradian, M. (2008). “Measuring the importance of size of Iranian economy sectors based on hypothetical elimination methods " MA Dissertation, Allameh tabatabaee university, Faculty of Economics, Tehran. (in Persian)

[20] Rasmussen, P.N. (1956). "Studies in Intersectional Relations". North-Holland, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

[21] Round J. I. (1978). An interregional input−output approach to the evaluation of non survey methods, Journal of Regional Science 18, 179−194.

[22] Sabagh Kermani, M. (2001). "Regional Economics (Theory and Models)", Tehran, SAMT publication books. (In Persian).

[23] Statistical Center of Iran. (2007,2015). National Accounts and Regional Accounts of Provinces (in Persian)

[24] Statistical Center of Iran. (2013). Guid to Compiling, Calculating and Evaluating Regional Accounts in 2012, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)

[25] Stevens B.H., Treyz G.I. and Lahr M.L. (1989). On the comparative accuracy of rpc estimating techniques, in Miller R.E., Polenske K.R. and Rose A.Z. (Eds) Frontiers of Input−Output Analysis, 245−257. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

[26] Tofigh, P. (1992). “Analysis of Input - Output in Iran and its applications in predicting and planning", Tehran, society and economic, Iran. (in Persian)

[27] Tohmo T. (2007). Regional Economic Structures in Finland: Analyses of Location and Regional Economic Impact, Jyvaskyla Studies in Business and Economics 57. University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland.

[28] Vaisi, E. (2007). “Measuring spatial linkage (internal and external) in the regional development of Kermanshah province”, MA Dissertation, Allameh tabatabaee university, Faculty of Economics, Tehran. (in Persian)