تحلیل تجربی نقش بخش معدن در توسعه اقتصاد منطقه‌ای یزد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مجید انصاری ¹
• محسن رفیعیان ²

¹ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه یزد

² استادیار، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه یزد

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2022.74355.1091

چکیده

چکیده
معدن یکی از بخش­های اساسی در توسعه اقتصادی استان یزد محسوب می­شود. ازآنجاکه بخش معدن دارای ظرفیت بالایی جهت توسعه اقتصادی مناطق و کشورهاست و برخلاف تصورها استفاده از این بخش برای توسعه اقتصادی دارای تعارضات فراوانی ازجمله «نفرین منابع» است. به همین جهت برای داشتن رابطه مثبت بین معدن و توسعه اقتصادی منطقه­ای توجه به عملکرد تولید ضروری است، که این بیانگر روابط فنی حاکم بر میزان تولید یک کشور از مقدار معین کار، سرمایه، مواد، انرژی و سایر منابع است؛ بنابراین، ارتباط بین بخش­های مختلف اقتصادی یکی از منابع قابل‌توجه توسعه اقتصادی در جهان توسعه نیافته یا کمتر توسعه یافته است. از همین رو این پژوهش در پی یافتن روابط بین بخش معدن با سایر بخش­های اقتصادی استان یزد است. بر این اساس با استفاده از داده­های سری زمانی از 1380 تا 1398 ارتباط بین بخش­های معدن، صنعت، کشاورزی و خدمات را در استان یزد بررسی و از آزمون علیت گرنجر و تکنیک خود رگرسیون برداری (VAR) بر اساس تابع واکنش آنی (IRF) و تجزیه واریانس (VD) برای مشاهده ارتباط بین متغیرها استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش علاوه بر ارتباط علی بین بخش معدن با بخش­های صنعت و کشاورزی در استان یزد گویای این نکته است که در کوتاه‌مدت نرخ رشد بخش معدن اثرات مثبت و در بلندمدت نسبت به سایر بخش­های اقتصادی استان یزد تفاوتی نداشته است؛ از همین رو برنامه­ریزی یک‌سویه بخش معدن بدون در نظر گرفتن ملاحظات زیست­محیطی و بدون توجه به ارتباط آن با سایر بخش­های اقتصادی نمی­تواند توسعه را برای استان یزد در پی داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• بخش معدن
• یزد
• اقتصاد منطقه‌ای
• اقتصادسنجی
• نفرین منابع

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Mining Sector in the Development of Yazd Regional Economy

نویسندگان [English]

• Majid Ansari ¹
• Mohsen Rafiean ²

¹ MSc. Student of Regional Planning, Art and Architecture, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Art and Architecture, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran

چکیده [English]

 
1- INTRODUCTION
Mining activities have flourished globally since the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore, it has a major share in the economies of many countries, especially underdeveloped countries and their regions. The mining sector has its effects on the entire economy of a country or region in terms of employment, value added, foreign investment, taxes and the production of new materials for use in the production of products. Contrary to popular belief, mineral-rich economies have advantages over less prosperous countries, but for a variety of reasons, the abundance of resources does not necessarily lead to economic prosperity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze empirically between the mining sector of Yazd province with the industry, agriculture and services of this province using the time series technique and by examination whether there is evidence of positive or negative overflow from the mine to other sectors, to be able to help the previous literature as well. This study uses the vector autoregression model and Granger causality to experimentally investigate the relationship between the mining sector and other economic sectors in Yazd province.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Although Yazd province has economic benefits as a result of existing mining activities, this does not mean a significant reduction in poverty or sustainable growth. This suggests that people living in the communities around the mines may not benefit from the mining activities. For this reason, in these regions, there is a concern that the extracted natural resources will be a wasteful asset and will create a degraded and damaged environment after the completion of the extraction projects. Thus, since the 1980s, numerous studies have challenged the view that natural resources are a blessing to less developed countries. The resource curse hypothesis suggests that economic growth in many mineral and natural resource countries is low or negative over long periods of time.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
The method used in the research is analytical-descriptive. In the other hand, in order to apply the theory proposed in the theoretical foundations of the research with the existing reality of Yazd province, as a case study, causal relationships between variables were examined by Granger causality test and also using econometric methods.
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The findings of this study according to the Granger causality test show that there is a dynamic interaction between the mining, industry and agriculture sectors in the economy of Yazd province. Thus, the findings of the Granger causality test show that changes in the mining sector cause or introduce changes in both industry and agriculture. From these findings, it can be concluded that the mining sector of Yazd province in recent years has been able to cause changes in the growth rate of industry and agriculture in this province. Findings of the impulse response function show that the agricultural, service and industrial sectors in Yazd province react positively to shocks from the mining sector in changes in growth rates but in the long run and according to the findings of the impulse response function, these effects lose their effect over time.  
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
According to the findings of this research in the long run, due to what the curse of resources has been expressed, the mining sector in Yazd province can not be the cause for the economic development of this province. For economic development in Yazd province, it is necessary that all economic sectors in the province, especially the economic sector of mining as a subject of research can cause positive shocks in other sectors in the long run, but what the findings of this study indicate in the long run for the mining sector of Yazd province, the opposite has been shown. In the other hand, according to the experimental results of the present study, the findings of analysis of variance showed that the studied sectors in the economy of Yazd province in the long run explain a significant share of each sector and are involved in each other's growth rate, so it can be said that in regional development, development cannot be achieved by relying on one sector. In addition, it is necessary to create a mechanism that allows the exploitation and addition of value to mineral resources, because this sector can be used as an incentive for economic growth and development.  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Mining sector
• Yazd
• economic development
• Econometrics. Resource Curse

مراجع

 

References

Abuya, W. O. (2016). Mining conflicts and corporate social responsibility: titanium mining in Kwale, Kenya. The Extractive Industries and Society, 3(2), 485-493.

Arias, M., Atienza, M., & Cademartori, J. (2014). Large mining enterprises and regional development in Chile: between the enclave and cluster. Journal of Economic Geography, 14(1), 73-95.

Aroca, P. (2001). Impacts and development in local economies based on mining: the case of the Chilean II region. Resources Policy, 27(2), 119-134.

Atil, A., Nawaz, K., Lahiani, A., & Roubaud, D. (2020). Are natural resources a blessing or a curse for financial development in Pakistan? The importance of oil prices, economic growth and economic globalization. Resources Policy, 67, 101683.

Atkinson, G., & Hamilton, K. (2003). Savings, growth and the resource curse hypothesis. World development, 31(11), 1793-1807.

Auty, R. (2002). Sustaining development in mineral economies: the resource curse thesis. Routledge.

Avinash, C. S., Patil, B. L., & Dupdal, R. (2018). Inter-Relationship of Major Sectors of Indian Economy: Co-Integration and Granger Causality Analysis. Economic Affairs, 63(1), 83-87.

Badeeb, R. A., Lean, H. H., & Clark, J. (2017). The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey. Resources Policy, 51, 123-134.

Behboudi, D., Barghi Oskoee, M., Mohammadi khaneghahi, R. (2019). The Effects of Mining Sector and Mining Industries Development on Government Revenue and Income of Households in Iran. Economical Modeling, 13(45), 115-136. (in persian)

Behbudi, D., Barghi Oskooee, M., Mohammadi, R. (2018). The Effects of an Increase in the Investment and the Total Factor Productivity of the Mining Sector on the Value Added and Export of Different Economic Sectors in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 4(4), 199-227. (in persian)

Beylot, A., & Villeneuve, J. (2015). Assessing the national economic importance of metals: An Input–Output approach to the case of copper in France. Resources Policy, 44, 161-165.

Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming sector and de-industrialisation in a small open economy. The economic journal, 92(368), 825-848.

Davis, G. A., & Tilton, J. E. (2005, August). The resource curses. In Natural resources forum (Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 233-242). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing, Ltd.

De Luca, F., Fensore, S., & Meschieri, E. (2018, June). Effective Land-Use and Public Regional Planning in the Mining Industry: The Case of Abruzzo. In International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence (pp. 154-161). Springer, Cham.

Deaton, B. J., & Niman, E. (2012). An empirical examination of the relationship between mining employment and poverty in the Appalachian region. Applied Economics, 44(3), 303-312.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.

Dorian, J. P., & Humphreys, H. B. (1994, February). Economic impacts of mining: a changing role in the transitional economies. In Natural Resources Forum (Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 17-29). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Dorin, I., Diaconescu, C., & Topor, D. I. (2014). The role of mining in national economies. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 4(3), 155-160.

Dwumfour, R. A., & Ntow-Gyamfi, M. (2018). Natural resources, financial development and institutional quality in Africa: is there a resource curse?. Resources Policy, 59, 411-426.

Fleming, D. A., Measham, T. G., & Paredes, D. (2015). Understanding the resource curse (or blessing) across national and regional scales: Theory, empirical challenges and an application. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 59(4), 624-639.

Goodman, J. (2008). The minerals boom and Australia's resource curse. Journal of Australian Political Economy, The, (61), 201-219.

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relationships by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods', Econom^ trica. July.

Gylfason, T. (2001). Natural resources, education, and economic development. European economic review, 45(4-6), 847-859.

Haikola, S., & Anshelm, J. (2020). Evolutionary governance in mining: Boom and bust in peripheral communities in Sweden. Land use policy, 93, 104056.

https://www.iribnews.ir/00AGaV Access: 2021.

https://www.iribnews.ir/00Brc9 Access: 2021.

https://www.yjc.ir/00VsoX Access: 2021.

Javanshirgiv, M., & Ariyafar, A. (2013). Investigating the role of mines and related industries in the economies of countries and the need to increase productivity in coal mines. 4th Conference of Iranian Society Economic Geology،Birjand. (in persian)

Kim, K. H., Kim, J. H., & Yoo, S. H. (2020). An Input-Output Analysis of the Economic Role and Effects of the Mining Industry in South Korea. Minerals, 10(7), 624.

Kumar, S., & Shahbaz, M. (2012). Coal consumption and economic growth revisited: structural breaks, cointegration and causality tests for Pakistan. Energy exploration & exploitation, 30(3), 499-521.

Lagos, G., & Blanco, E. (2010). Mining and development in the region of Antofagasta. Resources Policy, 35(4), 265-275.

Lechner, A. M., McIntyre, N., Witt, K., Raymond, C. M., Arnold, S., Scott, M., & Rifkin, W. (2017). Challenges of integrated modelling in mining regions to address social, environmental and economic impacts. Environmental modelling & software, 93, 268-281.

Lei, Y., Cui, N., & Pan, D. (2013). Economic and social effects analysis of mineral development in China and policy implications. Resources Policy, 38(4), 448-457.

Liew, V. K. S. (2004). Which lag length selection criteria should we employ? Economics bulletin, 3(33), 1-9.

Mabey, P. T., Li, W., Sundufu, A. J., & Lashari, A. H. (2020). Environmental impacts: Local perspectives of selected mining edge communities in Sierra Leone. Sustainability, 12(14), 5525.

Manzano, O., & Gutiérrez, J. D. (2019). The subnational resource curse: theory and evidence. The Extractive Industries and Society, 6(2), 261-266.

Mirabolghasemi Bahabadi, S., Beik Mohammadi, H., Ramesht, M. (2019). Evaluation of Social Impact Assessment of Mining-industrial Development in Central Iran (Case Study: Chadermollo Complex Impact on Behbaod County). Social Capital Management, 6(2), 255-280. (in persian)

Nazir, M., Murdifin, I., Putra, A. H. P. K., Hamzah, N., & Murfat, M. Z. (2020). Analysis of economic development based on environment resources in the mining sector. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 7(6), 133-143.

Neumayer, E. (2004). Does the “resource curse” hold for growth in genuine income as well? World development, 32(10), 1627-1640.

Olalekan, O., Afees, O., & Ayodele, S. (2016). An Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Mining Sector to Economic Development in Nigeria. Khazar Journal of Humanities & Social Sciences, 19(1).

Pal, S., & Mandal, I. (2021). Impacts of stone mining and crushing on environmental health in Dwarka river basin. Geocarto International, 36(4), 392-420.

Pegg, S. (2006). Mining and poverty reduction: Transforming rhetoric into reality. Journal of cleaner production, 14(3-4), 376-387.

Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.

Pourmirzaei, R. (2017). Mining Industry and Mineral Resources Challenges in Sustainable Development of Iran. Journal of mineral resources engineering, 2(3), 81-92. (in persian)

Rahmani, M. (2007). The Role of Gold Mines in Socio-Economic Life of Nearby Satellite Villages. Village and development, 10(1), 63-83. (in persian)

Ross, M., Kaiser, K., & Mazaheri, N. (2011). The “resource curse” in MENA? Political transitions, resource wealth, economic shocks, and conflict risk.

Sabiroglu, I. M., & Bashirli, S. (2012). Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan. Resources Policy, 37(1), 73-80.

Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European economic review, 45(4-6), 827-838.

Sahoo, A. K., Sahu, N. C., Sahoo, D., & Pradhan, B. B. (2014). Mineral export and economic growth in India: evidence from VAR model analysis. Mineral Economics, 27(1), 51-58.

Sapnken, F. E., Tamba, J. G., Ndjakomo, S. E., & Koffi, F. D. (2020). Oil products consumption and economic growth in Cameroon households: An assessment using ARDL cointegration and granger causality analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(6), 510.

Shakouri, B., & Yazdi, S. (2012). Granger causality relationship between mining exports and GDP growth in Iran. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 6(12), 429-435.

Siami-Namini, S. (2017). Granger causality between gross domestic product and economic sectors in developing countries: a panel co-integration approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(5), 53-58.

Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1-48.

Söderholm, P., & Svahn, N. (2015). Mining, regional development and benefit-sharing in developed countries. Resources Policy, 45, 78-91.

Statistical center of Iran, (2020a). Abstract Results of the Survey of Mines in Operation in Iran - 2019. Statistical center of Iran, Tehran.

Statistical center of Iran, (2020b). Regional Accounts of Iran. Statistical center of Iran, Tehran.

Su, F., Wei, G., & Tao, R. (2016). China and natural resource curse in developing countries: empirical evidence from a cross‐country study. China & World Economy, 24(1), 18-40.

Tonello, M. S., Korchagin, J., & Bortoluzzi, E. C. (2021). Environmental agate mining impacts and potential use of agate residue in rangeland. Journal of Cleaner Production, 280, 124263.

Weber, J. G. (2014). A decade of natural gas development: The makings of a resource curse? Resource and Energy Economics, 37, 168-183.

Xing, M., Awuah-Offei, K., Long, S., & Usman, S. (2017). The effect of local supply chain on regional economic impacts of mining. The Extractive Industries and Society, 4(3), 622-629.