Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD Student, Department of Economics, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Tehran (barkhordari@ut.ac.ir)
3 Professor, Department of Economics, University of Tehran
Abstract
The economies of countries are affected by various factors, and the contribution of each factor will vary depending on the situation of that country. In the future, it can also experience important changes under the influence of trends, considering the current position of economies and related phenomena. Accordingly, Iran's oil economy will also be affected by macro trends in the future, the identification of which can change the balance in favor of its improvement. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify and analyze the macro trends of Iran's oil economy in the 2030 horizon with a futures research approach. The research method is applied-developmental and integrated in terms of information collection. In the qualitative and exploratory part, through an environmental survey, first the macro trends affecting changes in the oil economy are identified, and then the important drivers of these macro trends are extracted, identified, and then analyzed. The statistical population of the research includes 20 professors, elites, and economic experts, whose selection was made using the snowball method. Using the opinions of the participants in the research and brainstorming sessions, more detailed trends and related drivers are identified. The research findings have shown that in explaining the future of Iran's oil economy, four important macro trends play an influential role in the future of this field. The first macro trend is technological changes, which are introduced and analyzed with 5 drivers: digital convergence and transformation, machine learning and artificial intelligence, the creation of new markets, increasing labor productivity, and an economy with a human face. In the macro trend of political issues, there are also three important drivers: increasing geopolitical and political fluctuations, international sanctions, and convergence in political values. The macro trend of environmental issues is defined and explained with three drivers: decarbonization of the economy, increasing importance of environmental sustainability, and resource limitations, and finally the macro trend of demographic issues is introduced and analyzed with four drivers: population growth, population imbalance, increased urbanization, and increased demographic diversity of the labor market. While all of these drivers are valuable to Iran's oil economy, opportunities and threats have been identified and quantified for each driver.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)
Send comment about this article