The Threshold Effect of Governance Quality on the Relation Between Financial Inclusion and Human Development in Eurasia

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economic, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran

3 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract
Human development, as one of the most prominent paradigms of the third millennium, plays a pivotal role in the economic and social sustainability of countries, particularly within the Eurasian region. The expansion of financial inclusion not only provides a fundamental basis for sustainable economic growth but also strengthens individuals’ economic empowerment and, at a higher level, improves human development indicators. Nevertheless, the magnitude and direction of the impact of financial inclusion on human development critically depend on the quality of institutions and the effectiveness of government governance. In light of these considerations, this study investigates the threshold role of the good governance index on the relationship between financial inclusion and human development in the Eurasian Union countries. To this end, the Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) methodology is employed. In addition, two composite indices are constructed to measure good governance and financial inclusion. The analysis is based on annual data covering the period 2011–2021, extracted from the latest statistics published by the World Bank. The results indicate that inclusion exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on human development in Eurasian countries. In addition, a threshold value for the governance index is confirmed. Although, at higher levels of good governance—that is, when the governance index exceeds the estimated threshold—this positive effect is significantly strengthened. Furthermore, the urbanization growth rate, as expected, exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on human development.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 01 July 2026

  • Receive Date 04 January 2026
  • Revise Date 01 May 2026
  • Accept Date 14 June 2026