Non-linear Impact of Ecological Footprint on Climate Change Adaptation: The PSTR Model

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Zahra Ranjbarian ¹

mahdi khoda parast mashadi

Masoud Homayounifar ¹

Narges salehnia ¹

Mohammad Esmael Samei ²

¹ Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

² Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2026.97864.1354

Abstract

Climate change, driven by anthropogenic pressures on natural systems, poses a critical global challenge requiring nuanced adaptation strategies. This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between ecological footprint and climate change adaptation using data from 104 countries for the period 2005–2023, employing a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model with carbon footprint as the transition variable. Results considering carbon footprint as a transition variable, reveal three distinct economic-regime-dependent responses: (i) low-income countries (Regime I) with minimal emissions but severely constrained adaptive capacity; (ii) transitional economies (Regime II) at risk of environmental lock-in as carbon emissions rise; and (iii) high-income nations (Regime III) with high consumption-driven footprints despite advanced technological capacity. Crucially, adaptation responses vary significantly across regimes — undermining the efficacy of uniform policy prescriptions such as generalized promotion of urbanization or agricultural intensification. The findings underscore that equitable climate action must be regime-specific: low-income nations require targeted technology transfer and institutional support, transitional economies must pursue green development pathways to avoid ecological traps, and high-income countries need systemic decarbonization of energy and consumption systems. This study provides empirical grounding for a differentiated, justice-oriented framework for global climate adaptation.

Keywords

Ecological Footprint

Carbon Footprint

Climate Change

PSTR

Subjects

• natural resources and environment economics and other aspects of agricultural economics

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