Original Article
Economic Sociology
mostafa Mokhtari; Soroush Fathi; Mehrdad Navabakhsh
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTIONDevelopment has been the most important overall goal of people and societies in this era. Accordingly, development efforts in all societies have been among the main goals of countries. Also, development is a common global concern among many countries, and development should provide ...
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1- INTRODUCTIONDevelopment has been the most important overall goal of people and societies in this era. Accordingly, development efforts in all societies have been among the main goals of countries. Also, development is a common global concern among many countries, and development should provide a high quality of life and health of the population, preserve the environment, and also maintain a level of comfort and well-being suitable for the lives of citizens. The importance of development in developing countries is so much that trying to find the right way and method for its development and policy has become one of the most basic actions of countries and governments. Therefore, the correct policymaking of development programs is a new approach that planners are looking for today. Undoubtedly, in some countries, especially East Asian countries, their economic development has been the product of policy development. Development policies in different countries have been followed based on fundamental differences and generally do not follow a common pattern. consider development policies from individual and health aspects, consider prioritize the effectiveness of policies in focusing on marginal areas, and finally consider prioritize spatial planning. Although development policies in sensitive political areas have been influenced by economic necessities, how regional players and great powers compete. But the main reason for the success of development policies is due to the leading sectors that affect the process of these policies and development. Based on this, this research aims to look to the future and by using future research approaches, using the approach of identification and analysis the policy leading of Iran's development in the national sphere, to identify the policy accelerators of Iran's development by elites and experts. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKSince the beginning of development theories, various approaches have been proposed and there have been different development theories from the past until now. The first period of presenting development theories dates back to the years 1945 to 1970. In this period, development was considered as economic growth and equivalent to it. The basis of development writings is the modernization paradigm, which consider growth as a linear process. Therefore, planning to invest in the sectors that had a relative advantage, in order to increase the growth of the gross national product, was placed at the head of the affairs.The second period, which spans from 1970 to 1980, was formed through observation the ineffectiveness of development theories in the first period. The experience of countries showed that following the economic growth model to access development, although in some cases it led to an increase in GDP and rapid economic growth, but negative consequences such as increase in poverty, improper distribution of income, environmental pollution, growth of marginalization in the big cities of developing countries caused. This caused research to be carried out on development strategies and policies that pay attention to a more balanced distribution of development, so the social dimension of development, which was more focused on the proper and more humane distribution of economic growth achievements, was raised and the basic needs of humans were met in communities, poverty alleviation, equally distribution of income were raised as requirements for development. The third period coincides with the implementation of the economic adjustment program with the policies of the World Bank; Liberalizing trade, changing domestic prices to global prices, improving revenues through expanding tax bases and reforming taxes, reducing the government budget deficit by reducing public expenditures, especially subsidies, were among these reforms needed for development.The fourth period, which covers from 1980 to 1990, according to the experience of Southeast Asian countries, showed that the government can play a role as the main agent of development if appropriate economic policies are implemented. This approach, which is referred to as the post-development approach, is a school of thought that questions the idea of national economic development.Finally, since 1990, the development paradigms have shifted from their traditional foundations to two new approaches such as sustainable development and social development. The concept of sustainable development is based on the undeniable fact that ecological considerations can and should be applied in economic activities. An important development that took place in this school was that the school of sustainable development criticized many of the basic assumptions and concepts of most of the thinkers in this field of the basic principles of sustainable development in the field of the neoclassical economic paradigm. 3- METHODOLOGYThe method of conducting this qualitative research is a prospective study, which was carried out with the strategy of trend analysis and all the national trends governing the state of Iran's development policy by studying internal and external reports, including. The study of existing researches and theoretical literature and in-depth interviews and brainstorming sessions have been conducted and subjected to the criticism of experts and development policy activists in Iran. The statistical population of this research includes all development policy experts and activists in Iran who are experts and experts in development and policy making, 25 of whom have participated in the research process in the form of interviews and participation in brainstorming sessions. Data analysis was based on trend analysis of the type of leading. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSIONIn this research, 25 important and fundamental leading items have been identified in 5 social, technological, economic, environmental and political fields. At the national level, 9 important social leading for the country's development policies have been identified, which include; Canceling cultural patronage, creating a common vision, national dialogue for development, attracting public participation, elimination poverty and inequality, social inclusion, population control policy, urban development policy, and changing the behavior of individual activists. Also, the national technological engines include 5 important engines. Independence of higher education institution, focus on education, expansion of science sovereignty, development of peaceful nuclear science and technology, and acceptance of technology. The economic leading items at the national level are the 3 important leading of monitoring and measuring development, canceling economic support and tourism for the development of Iran. But in the environmental field, four leading items are considerd: land use policies, adaptability and flexibility to climate changes, level of access to clean energy and prevention of industrial pollution. Finally, the political and governance leading items identified at the national level include 4 leading: development of horizontal criticism, thoughtful decision-making, strengthening of civil society and implementation of formulated policies. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONSThese leading are in different social, technical, economic, environmental and political fields, which exist in the order of the degree of influence of the sovereign political leading, environmental drivers, technological leading, economic leading and finally socio-cultural leading, but based on the degree importance in order: economic, technical, social, cultural and environmental issues and finally political drivers are given priority. Since the experience of development in many countries has been different and different actors have shouldered the burden of developing societies. It is suggested that the most important experience should shorten the hand of government interference in development policies and development should be stimulated in the community. It also gives the talented actors a field for development so that they can be supported in the field of action. On this basis, development needs to have a vision and a clear horizon and realize some kind of plan and plan to move from the existing point to the desired point. Keywords: Development, Future Research, National Leading, Iran.
Original Article
Development and planning economics
samira motaghi; ramezan gholami; samane talei; salah ebrahimi
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
The adverse economic, social and political consequences of poverty have prompted governments to put improving the condition of the poor at the top of their priorities. Therefore, proper understanding of poverty and the factors affecting it has importance. But the important issue ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
The adverse economic, social and political consequences of poverty have prompted governments to put improving the condition of the poor at the top of their priorities. Therefore, proper understanding of poverty and the factors affecting it has importance. But the important issue in this regard is the various definitions related to poverty, which are different depending on different approaches, including its regionality, and this issue creates the mentality that whether the phenomenon of poverty (for example, based on this approach) is actually. It is a regional and geographical category, in other words, the factors affecting poverty are different in different developed and developing regions (depending on the geographical situation of that region), or is poverty an international phenomenon and the factors affecting it are the same everywhere?
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
One of the basic issues of recent societies, which is a serious obstacle to development and progress, is poverty, which according to the 2030 report on sustainable development of the United Nations, its elimination is considered one of the 17 primary goals of sustainable development). Poverty is a major concern for policy makers; because its occurrence is directly related to the well-being of the population. In addition in economic aspects, the poverty situation in any society is also important in political and social dimensions, and any economic approach to poverty will inevitably have political and social consequences. Despite extensive studies on poverty, there is still no prevailing consensus on the main factors affecting poverty. Poverty has been looked at from an economic point of view and has attributed only economic approaches to itself in such a way that its main concept is only the lack of individual and household income compared to basic living standards. But this concept, since 1981, with the definition of poverty by the World Bank as the loss of an opportunity and not getting another opportunity as an alternative, including life, social, economic conditions, etc., took on a different definition. In Sen’s initial studies in 1982 and 1985, Sen proposed the concept of poverty in a more complete way, according to which, poverty is not only a lack of income, but also the lack of a fixed set of people's life capabilities, which some how. Deprivation refers and of course deprivation itself is a relative concept whose meaning is different in different places and times. Therefore, with a deeper insight into poverty, this category includes all types of deprivation, including economic, social, political, cultural, etc. The aforementioned deprivations are different, the poverty situation is also different in different societies.
3- METHODOLOGY
In this article, poverty and the factors affecting it have been investigated in different developed and developing regions and according to different geographical conditions. The method used in this research, in order to provide comparative models, is the ARDL panel method and the software used is Eviews 9, and the research data is extracted from the World Bank. The study areas include 30 countries (15 countries in the developing regions of the Middle East and North Africa and 15 countries in the developed regions of Europe and Central Asia). First, this study examines the impact of factors affecting poverty in macro and at the level of developed and developing regions. Then, by analyzing the impact of each region on poverty, it examines the issue of what effect does the geography of the region have on poverty? And is poverty in the regions a function of the geographical situation or not? In other words, are the factors affecting poverty different in different regions (depending on the geographical situation of that region) or is poverty an international phenomenon and the factors affecting it are the same everywhere in the world?
The model used in this research, according to the theoretical foundations and based on the model of Dano-Andonso and Sylvester (2016), is as follows:
POVit: poverty index of region i in time period t (in the current research, the percentage of people with a daily income of less than 1.9 dollars is known as poverty index); FDit: financial development index of region i in time period t (CPIA financial development index is proposed as this index); GDPit: GDP growth rate (in terms of purchasing power parity) of region i in time period t, which indicates the wealth level of the studied region; Xit: control variables of region i in time period t, which include inflation rate (INF), trade ratio (sum of exports + imports) to GDP (TRADE) and UE: unemployment rate; Therefore, the final model will be as follows:
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Based on the results, it is clear that in the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa, the coefficients of all the variables except the financial development variable have a high significance, so that the unemployment rate variable has a coefficient of (0.153) at the level of 5% and the gross production growth rate variables. Domestic with coefficient (-0.285), trade to GDP ratio variable with coefficient (-0.058) and inflation rate with coefficient (0.241) are significant at 1% level. On the other hand, in the developed countries of Europe and Central Asia, the coefficients of all variables except the unemployment rate variable are significant, so that the financial development variable with the coefficient (-0.213), GDP growth rate variable with coefficient (-0.213). The variable of trade to GDP ratio with coefficient (-0.117) and inflation rate with coefficient (0.098) is significant at 10% level. According to the results obtained for the countries of developing and developed regions, it is clear that:
The estimated models are significant and the results related to most of their coefficients are also highly significant. Only the financial development variable in the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa is meaningless, which indicates that the financial development index has no effect on poverty in less developed regions. From another point of view, the reason for the meaninglessness of this index can be seen in the underdevelopment or in a better way, the inefficiency of the financial sector in the Middle East and North Africa regions. The signs of all the coefficients related to the independent variables of inflation rate, international trade, GDP growth, financial development and unemployment are the same in all models, except for the models in which the index is not significant. In other words, the increase in inflation and unemployment in both developed and developing regions (regardless of the geographical situation) increases the level of poverty; Meanwhile, improving financial development, economic growth and international trade reduces poverty. In the context of the error correction relationship, the value of the estimated ECM coefficient is higher for the group of developed countries. In other words, if there is a shock to poverty, it will return to its long-term trend faster in mainly developed countries than in less developed countries. This issue is probably due to more economic stability in countries with a higher level of development than in less developed countries.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The variables of economic growth, international trade, inflation, unemployment and financial development are the most important factors affecting the poverty index in developing and developed countries. However, the indicators of inflation and unemployment increase the level of poverty and the improvement of financial development, economic growth and international trade reduces poverty. Meanwhile, the negative effect of the economic growth coefficient on poverty, in both groups of developing and developed countries, indicates the confirmation of Stiglitz's trickle-down effect theory that economic development reduces poverty, and it is suggested that economic development and increased production growth The country has increased the wealth of the rich and in this process, a part of their wealth increase is gradually transferred to the poor. For example, as the wealth of the rich increases, the demand for production factors, especially the labor force of the poor, increases, and as employment increases and unemployment decreases, poverty decreases (the direct relationship between the unemployment rate and poverty also confirms this importance). The variables of economic growth, unemployment and inflation have had the greatest impact on poverty in different regions. In other words, poverty in different regions is mostly an economic category and other different approaches related to poverty are placed in the next levels of importance. In addition, this category, along with the different influence of governments on the level of poverty in developing and developed countries, is a good confirmation of the theory of political economists in relation to poverty at the international level, who state that the poverty of societies is focused on the mutual relationship between politics and economy and the role of governments and in general, the role of human action and especially the economic and political leaders, is in the poverty of the regions.
Original Article
seyedeh mahboubeh alerasoul; mahmood Hooshmand; Seyed Saeed Malek sadati
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Health tourism is made up of combination of the two high-income branches of tourism and treatment services. The city of Mashhad has many potential and actual potentials in both health tourism sectors, i.e., tourism and health. Nevertheless, there are obstacles and challenges ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Health tourism is made up of combination of the two high-income branches of tourism and treatment services. The city of Mashhad has many potential and actual potentials in both health tourism sectors, i.e., tourism and health. Nevertheless, there are obstacles and challenges in the development of health tourism in the city of Mashhad, which have prevented it from achieving its rightful position in creating employment, added value and currency production. Therefore, the scientific analysis of the challenges and opportunities of this industry and the adoption of realistic strategies in accordance with the existing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are considered a necessary step in the direction of the development of health tourism in Mashhad. Therefore, in this research, through previous studies and in-depth interviews with industry experts, the most important strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of this industry in Mashhad were extracted. In the second step, the data was analyzed by using a questionnaire and SWOT tool, and finally, appropriate strategies were presented.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The World Tourism Organization defines health tourism as follows: "Using services that lead to improving or increasing health and increasing a person's spirit by using mineral waters, weather or medical interventions and in a place outside of the person's place of residence and it takes more than 24 hours".
The health tourism industry encompasses a chain of services and activities that have together horizontal or vertical link, Therefore the whole chain must be analyzed to better understand the industry. Obviously, the weakness of each component of the chain eliminates the Possibility of benefiting from the opportunities of this industry.
Although, so far, empirical studies have dealt with the issue of health tourism from different aspects, this article has analyzed the health tourism industry with a different approach and from the point of view of the supply chain.
METHODOLOGY
The type of this research is applied in terms of nature and analytical - descriptive in terms of methodology. The purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the health tourism industry in Mashhad, as well as to provide strategies for developing health tourism industry in Mashhad with regard to the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
In order to extract strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, the information used in this research has been compiled with the help of a combination of the following methods:
A) Study of the research background, documents and available resources including research projects, undergraduate reports and theses and related articles.
B) To conduct in-depth interviews with experts and authorities of active health tourism units in hospitals and health tourism companies in Mashhad.
The statistical population of this research consist of experts in health tourism industry, active companies in the health tourism industry in Mashhad, hospitals located in Mashhad that have a unit responsible for coordinating health tourism. The method of sampling in this research is non-
random sampling method. In the statistical community, about 9 interviews were conducted. Data analysis was done by using questionnaire and SWOT approach.
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results of the analysis show that among the internal factors, the low cost of tourism and health services is the greatest strength, and weakness in advertising and marketing is the biggest weakness in the health tourism industry in Mashhad. Among the external factors, the presence of Imam Reza's Shrine is the greatest opportunity and the presence of major rivals and major challenges to the Arab and Western countries are among the greatest threats. Based on the results of this research, due to being more the weaknesses of this industry than the strengths and also being more opportunities than threats, the development of the health tourism industry in Mashhad should be pursued through a review strategy.
CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The purpose of this research is to extract the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of health tourism industry in Mashhad and provide solutions for the development and improvement of this industry. The results of the analysis show development of the health tourism industry in Mashhad should be pursued through a review strategy. It means a strategy that reduces internal weaknesses for foreign opportunities. Therefore, according to the results obtained, the following solutions are suggested:
Design and compilation of comprehensive and upstream document and perspective of health tourism.
Determine a specific trustee that have not dependency with any organization.
Organizing and overseeing dealers in a variety of ways. (Organizing and Supervision dealers in different ways)
Creation and expansion of transportation infrastructure.
Creating a brand called Hospital Hotel.
Branding for Iran in the field of treatment.
Standardization and Accreditation of Hospitals and Therapeutic Centers.
Establishing appropriate capacities in hospitals and health centers.
Dispatched doctor abroad.
Training human resources and efficient.
Upgrade improving health tourism capacity.
Private sector presence alongside the public sector.
Creating coordination between different businesses in the health tourism industry.
Provide a complete package of services to health tourists.
Granting facilities to international patients.
Reflecting the costs of tourism and health care and maintaining a low-cost brand.
Investing, planning and supporting this industry.
Extensive advertisement.
Original Article
International Economics
atefe ahmadi; Abdol Karim Hosainpour
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
The expansion of trade among countries in recent years is one of the main reasons for economic growth. In order to achieve export development, it is necessary to use a principled and modern method to identify, determine and prioritize export target markets. In this ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
The expansion of trade among countries in recent years is one of the main reasons for economic growth. In order to achieve export development, it is necessary to use a principled and modern method to identify, determine and prioritize export target markets. In this regard, Bushehr province in the economic field (production, trade and services) with issues such as growth based on a single product and sector economy, weak technical and specialized knowledge in economic sectors, traditional production methods and lack of investment platforms in the sectors private and public aspect. Therefore, in the present research, in order to develop non-oil exports at the regional and national levels, by benefiting from the theories of comparative advantage, the activities with comparative advantage in export in Bushehr province are identified.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Based on different theories in the field of comparative advantage, countries or regions being rich in resources cause countries (regions) to have a potential relative advantage for exporting manufactured goods related to resource abundance. Also, the export of goods should be based on the trade costs and market size of the target countries. Therefore, according to the proposed theories, the export of goods based on the comparative advantage and the concentration of companies in a geographical area, while enjoying the benefits of forming an industrial cluster, causes the organization of industries and the specialization of activities.
3- METHODOLOGY
In this research, the cluster index method is used to investigate the concentration of industrial activities in the province. Due to this issue comparative advantage is one of the key concepts in international trade theory, and also one of the indicators that has been widely used in this field is the Balasa Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. After identification of the concentrated activities through the Balasa index and Balasa symmetry, the concentrated industrial activities with relative export advantage are identified and then based on a series of indicators, the target countries of Bushehr province are prioritized by using the numerical taxonomy method.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
In the recent research, by benefiting from the theories of comparative advantage and using indices such as cluster index, Balassa index and Balassa symmetry index, concentrated industrial activities were identified and then has been determined the activities with comparative advantage in exports in the years 2005 to 2019. In the following, considering the importance of non-oil export development based on five relative import indicators, the number of countries participating in imports, the lack of advantage of the target country in product production, the average tariff and the distance between the target country and Bushehr province using the numerical taxonomy method of the most important markets were identified as the target of the selected product in the last statistical year (2021). According to the results obtained in the recent research, the activity of producing chemicals and chemical products has a relative advantage of export. Also, based on the final prioritization of the countries based on all the introduced indicators, it was determined that the countries of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Qatar are the most important target countries for the chemical products of Bushehr province, respectively, they have the first to fourth priority.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Bushehr province has opportunities and strengths in various fields of oil, gas, petrochemicals, power plants, agriculture and fisheries, mines, nuclear facilities, marine industries, commercial activities and proximity to the Persian Gulf. The results of calculating the cluster index indicate that each city in Bushehr province has a series of concentrated activities. Each of these activities can be susceptible to the formation of industrial clusters with a more detailed investigation. The results obtained from the calculations of revealed and revealed symmetric relative advantage indicators based on the statistics of added value and export of activities also showed that among the concentrated activities susceptible to cluster formation in Bushehr province, the activity of coke production and oil refining products; production of chemicals and chemical products. The production of pharmaceuticals and chemical and herbal medicinal products has a relative advantage in export. In addition, the results of the prioritization of the target countries showed that the countries of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Qatar are the most important target countries for the chemical products of Bushehr province. According to these results, it is suggested:
It is possible to form an industrial cluster in the production of chemical substances and chemical products in Asaluiye city.
Regional imbalances caused by the concentration of population and facilities in a province occur within a region, which are reduced by identifying and developing susceptible areas.
Original Article
Iran's economy
Hamid Khavari; taghi ebrahimi salari
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important part of economic well-being, which is largely affected by the country's economic policies. Policies and programs to deal with inflation and especially the effect of monetary policies on the nominal and real variables of the economy is one of the most important topics in the literature of monetary economics. Price stability is considered as the main goal of monetary policy in almost all countries. In order to achieve low and stable inflation, effective and efficient tools should be used in monetary policy affairs. Of course, the correct understanding of the concept of inflation and the factors affecting is considered essential to achieve price stability. Economists believe that the costs that inflation imposes on society can be much more serious than the costs of slowing down economic growth. Instability resulting from inflation not only damages the credibility of macroeconomic policymakers, especially the central bank, but its continuation can also cause acute cases of political instability in countries. In this regard, demand management policies and especially monetary policies are one of the important tools to achieve these goals. Monetary policies are without a doubt the most direct influencing and determining factor of inflation, and by using and correctly guiding monetary policies, one can achieve stable economic growth while achieving low and stable inflation. Trade-off between inflation and unemployment has always been the concern of economists and basic theories such as the Phillips curve have been proposed in this regard. Economists have generalized the aforementioned trade-off and used economic growth instead of unemployment and put forward a concept called the sacrifice ratio. Sacrifice ratio shows the amount of lost production per 1% reduction in inflation, and along with the Phillips curve, it has always been very important in the direction of government and central bank policies, especially contractionary policies.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Based on this, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation-fighting monetary policies on economic growth and security in Iran. As a result of the study, the costs of a deflationary policy are also measured in terms of lost production during the years (1998-2021). For this purpose, after examination the theoretical foundations of the research in relation to the concept and indicators of economic security, the benefits and harms of inflation on the risks that reduce economic growth and security, and the effects of policies to deal with inflation, a review of the background Studies of the studied subject are carried out.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research examines changes in economic growth and economic security index in Iran. Through modeling the application of a contractionary monetary policy for the period of 1988-2021 by using the Structural Autoregression model (SVAR).
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Our results show that the contractionary impulse on the growth of the country's liquidity has a negative reaction on the growth of GDP per capita in the short run. But in the long run and gradually with the reduction of inflation, its initial effects will be moderated and the country's economic growth will improve. Based on this, the calculated production sacrifice ratio is -3.52. According to the results of the research, the negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, the application of monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years). Over the years, production not only compensates for its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be seen that it has a negative reaction in the short run, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the prices on the economic security index. In the long run, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. The results also show that both in the short run and in the long run, the most important variable affecting the changes in production growth is the impulse resulting from the economic security index, which indicates the great importance of the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs and private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
To achieve the purpose of conducting the study we investigated the effects of disinflation monetary policies on the country's economic growth and security, as well as measuring the costs of a deflationary policy in terms of lost production during the period under review, first, the economic security index based on Ozberg and Sharp's study (2001) calculation and its trend was analyzed. Then, by specifying the theoretical model of the research, the stationary of the variables was checked by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The final variables used in this research are: economic security index, per capita GDP growth, liquidity growth and inflation changes. The results of the Augmeted Dickey-Fuller stationary test showed that all these variables have unit root. Next, the SVAR model was estimated and structural constraints were applied, and after that, impulse response functions and variance decomposition were analyzed. The results showed that the contractionary impulse on the growth of liquidity has a negative reaction on the part of production growth in the short run, but in the long run due to its moderating effects on the country's inflation, the economic growth gradually increased and its fluctuations trended up to 7 periods are completely lost. According to the definition of production sacrifice ratio, it measures the accumulated loss in real production as a result of a permanent decrease in the inflation process. It is observed that with the applied deflationary policy, it takes about 5 periods (years) for inflation to be permanently moved to a lower level. The reduction rate of inflation is about 0.17%. Also, the total production loss due to the application of this policy during the five-year period is equal to -0.6%. Therefore, the calculated sacrifice ratio is equal to -3.52. The negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, applying monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years) and during these years, not only production compensates its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be observed that it has a negative reaction in the short run, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the prices on the economic security index. In the long run, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. To summarize the degree of importance and the degree of influence of each variable, analysis of the variance of the prediction error of the production growth variable was used. The results of this study show that both in the short run and in the long run, the most important variable influencing changes in production growth is the impulse of the economic security index, which is very important for the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs. And private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties. The results of the analysis of the variance of the prediction error of the economic security index variable also show, the most important factors explaining the changes in the country's economic security are different in the short and long run. According to the specified model, in the short run, changes in production growth and inflation cause more than half of the changes in the economic security index. But in the long run, their effects will decrease and the growth momentum of liquidity is able to explain about 10% of the changes in the economic security index. Therefore, the effect of the contractionary impulse of the growth of liquidity through reducing inflation and promoting the growth of GDP in the long run has a positive effect on the country's economic security index. According to the results obtained from the analysis of research results regarding Iran, inflation control policies are recommended despite its adverse effects on production levels in the short-term, taking into account the long-term positive effects on the security index and economic growth. and follow up policy makers.
Original Article
Employment
akram hasannejsad; mahdi moradi; Sima eskandari
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
In today's competitive world, productivity as a philosophy and a vision based on the strategy of improving operations is the most important goal of leading organizations and is a necessity for economic growth and improving the living and welfare of a country. The amount and rate ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
In today's competitive world, productivity as a philosophy and a vision based on the strategy of improving operations is the most important goal of leading organizations and is a necessity for economic growth and improving the living and welfare of a country. The amount and rate of productivity growth in each country has a significant impact on the trend of macroeconomic variables at the global level. Many factors affect productivity, among which, the role of wages and inflation can be very important.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
In the inflationary state, a misunderstanding is created in relation to the levels of relative prices in societies; therefore, in such a situation, an atmosphere of uncertainty dominates the economy of countries and production costs increase due to inflation, and this can affect the wages paid by the employer to the workforce. As a result of the increase in prices and the disproportion of salary increase with inflation, the real income of the labor force decreases and the labor force cannot cover all its expenses. Therefore, in an inflationary state, we will witness things such as a decrease in the health of the workforce, a decrease in the level of education of the workforce, a decrease in the motivation of the workforce, and the creation of a class gap; therefore, labor productivity can gradually decrease.
3- METHODOLOGY
The aim of this study is to determine the effect of wages and inflation on labor productivity by using Markov switching econometric technique in 15 selected developing countries (Iran, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Mauritius, Mongolia, Philippines, Thailand, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Peru and South Africa) during the period 2006 to 2017. In this paper, the indicators of foreign direct investment, human capital, business environment, corruption control, and trade liberalization were considered as control variables in the model.
Markov switching econometric technique was used to estimate the effects of variables. Also, for more detailed investigations, the causal relationship between inflation and wages and labor productivity was investigated by using the Granger method.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results of the estimations indicated the negative effect of inflation on labor productivity in both regimes (boom and recession). This result was consistent with the results of most domestic and foreign studies, but it is somewhat contradictory to Aiheanacho's (2017) study. The impact of wages on labor productivity was positive in both regimes (boom and recession), which indicates the confirmation of efficiency wage theories. In connection with control variables, human capital variables, trade liberalization and business climate had a positive effect on labor productivity in both the first and second regimes. In confirming the positive relationship of the business environment on productivity, it can be acknowledged that the business environment is a political, institutional and behavioral environment that affects the efficiency and risks associated with economic activities and investment. It provides the basis for more production, so production per worker also increases, which means increased labor productivity.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between inflation and labor productivity in the studied countries. Therefore, governments should through reducing interference in the economy and compliance with the monetary rule and management of liquidity growth rate and creating grounds for economic stability, deal with the risk and uncertainty resulting from inflation.
Also, according to the results, there is a positive and significant relationship in both the first and second regimes, between labor wages and labor productivity, so it is necessary to adjust the wage laws based on the real value of labor (productivity) to strengthen the merit system and improve productivity. It is also necessary to adopt policies according to the theory of the value of the final product. So that the increase in wages without the destructive effects of inflation caused by cost pressure, leads to an increase in productivity. For this purpose, the labor law and wage payment mechanism should be amended. The findings of the research show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the business environment and the productivity of the labor force in both boom and recession regimes, so it is suggested that sustainable and coherent planning in order to improve and expansion of the infrastructure of the business space in the investigated communities. Therefore, it seems necessary for governments to think of measures that lead to productive investments in the business space.
The results show that the effect of wages on labor productivity is positive in both regimes (boom and recession). In relation to the control variables, the variables of human capital, trade liberalization and business climate have a positive effect on labor productivity in both regimes (boom and recession). But regarding the variables of foreign direct investment and corruption control, we observe a positive relationship in the first regime (prosperity) and a negative relationship in the second regime (recession). Also, for more detailed studies, the causal relationship between inflation and wages with labor productivity has been investigated by using the Granger method, which indicates a two-way causal relationship between the investigated variables.
Original Article
Employment
leila torki; vala sanizaseh; mohammad reza ghasemi
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Most of the developing villagers are deprived of access to financial resources and the lack of access of entrepreneurs to financial resources in this country, on the one hand, causes people to remain in poverty, and on the other hand, it causes a reduction and limitation in the ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Most of the developing villagers are deprived of access to financial resources and the lack of access of entrepreneurs to financial resources in this country, on the one hand, causes people to remain in poverty, and on the other hand, it causes a reduction and limitation in the formation of income. New businesses are created to increase economic growth. Currently, with consideration the existing challenges in the villages of the country such as unemployment, low productivity rate, excessive immigration, and high level of poverty, it seems that the development and expansion of the payment of financial resources from microcredits. Which can create these areas by increasing the entrepreneurial ability of rural people. At the beginning of the third millennium, microcredit is one of the important resources for poverty alleviation and economic empowerment of villagers. The microcredit system has been one of the solutions proposed in the last few decades to invest and strengthen the financial foundation and savings in rural areas and ultimately rural communities and poverty alleviation through productivity improvement. Microcredits for financing ordinary people can use the services of common official institutions, and its main purpose is to gather capacities and devices for production among poor entrepreneurs and provide sustainable sources of livelihood for rural residents. Microcredits are one of the main topics in economics, after the change in economic theories and perspectives of development as an economic stimulus in developing countries and receiving the problems of inflation and increasing unemployment, and unfair distribution of wealth and income, the key to solving the puzzle is numbered. These useful credits are one of the characteristics of being a group, capability, people and relying on social justice, sustainability, creating security and safety as one of the strategies to strengthen poor local communities in the new paradigm (sustainable rural development).
Based on this, to implement monitoring plans and enumeration locations of rural plans in the high supervision of law enforcement, 4266 plans that were paid in full and in installments until 1400/10/20 were used for enumeration, and research results were carried out. The results obtained from the questionnaires are presented. In the second stage, the introduction of rural law and the research conducted in this field are discussed. In the third stage, based on the results of statistical tests and analysis of the data extracted from the questionnaire, the factors that affected the success of the plan in creating a plan are introduced, as also the cases where the deviation in the implementation of the plan is due to its legal provisions and the causes of it are discussed. In the fourth and final stage of the research, while summarizing the findings of the research, suggestions are presented to correct the flaws in the law and its executive regulations.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The law "Supporting the development and creation of sustainable employment in rural and nomadic areas using the resources of the National Development Fund" was approved by the Islamic Council in August 2016 and on September 19 of the same year by the President for implementation to the Program and Budget Organization. The country was notified. The purpose of this law is to fulfill the general policies of the resistance economy by promoting products and creating sustainable employment in rural and nomadic areas.
According to article 1 of this law, the National Development Fund is allowed to deposit up to 1.5 billion dollars of the fund's resources with the approval of the Board of Trustees in the Agricultural Bank, Omid Entrepreneurial Fund, Post Bank, and Cooperative Development Bank in the form of loans. These resources should be used to provide facilities to non-governmental natural and legal entities to create employment in villages and cities with less than ten thousand people, with priority for villages and cities with less than ten thousand people in border and nomadic areas. According to the law, the granted facilities can have a breathing period of up to one year and a repayment period of 6 years. Also, the operating institutions are required to have the equivalent of the deposit of the fund from their sources for granting facilities. The benefit of the facility is calculated at a rate of 6% in non-border areas and at a rate of 4% in border areas. According to Article 4 of this law, working capital facilities are granted only to production units located in rural industrial areas and cities with a population of fewer than 10,000 people, and according to article 9 of the working capital regulation, it is calculated at a rate of 10%. (Law on supporting the development and creation of sustainable employment in rural and nomadic areas using the resources of the National Development Fund, 2016).
The executive regulations of this project were approved by the Council of Ministers in November 2016. According to this regulation, the target sectors for granting this facility include 6 sectors of agriculture and natural resources, industries and small mines, service activities and information technology, tourism and handicrafts, and handwoven carpet activities and providing working capital for production units located in Rural industrial areas and cities with less than ten thousand people. In Article 4 of the regulation, the share of each sector of the facilities at the country level is determined. Based on this, the share of the agricultural sector is 45%, small industries and mines 10%, service activities and information technology 15%, tourism 10%, handicrafts, and handwoven carpet activities 10%, and the supply of working capital for production units 10%. These shares will be revised based on performance up to 30% by the national working group.
In Article 5 of the regulations, according to the combined index of the rural population, unemployment rate, and per capita income, the share of Isfahan province is 3.04% of the total resources.
According to Article 7 of the regulations, the supervision of the implementation of the sustainable employment development program should be carried out using the capacity of provincial organizations and executive bodies.
According to Article 10 of the regulation, operating institutions are required to review and approve the applicant's plans in terms of technical, financial, and economic justification while guaranteeing the reimbursement of fund resources, and in case of rejecting the request, inform the applicant of the reasons in writing.
Article 15 of the regulation states that the executive bodies must introduce qualified applicants to the operating institutions and monitor the realization of the plan's goals.
The Ministry of Cooperation, Labor and Social Welfare, as the main trustee of the implementation of this project, according to the regulations, should, in addition to the operational supervision of the implementation programs of employment, train applicants in specialized fields and provide a comprehensive system for registration and submission of documents.
3- METHODOLOGY
Considering that the purpose of this realization is to investigate the factors affecting the realization of the goals of the law, the most important of which was the creation of employment, and the deviations from its implementation and the executive regulations. In this stage, by using statistical tests and tables of descriptive statistics with the use of STATA software have been used to analyze the data of the questionnaires and present the results.
4-RESULTS
Among the parameters in the questionnaire, the variables that have been logically and empirically possible to have a relationship with the success of the project have been investigated by using t-test and ANOVA. Based on the results of these tests, the following variables have been related to the success of the project:
City implementation plan
Executive body
Target section
Design type
Company closure
The presence of a support system
5- CONCLUSION & SUGGESTION
According to the time frame of project implementation, two important external factors can be raised as challenges to the success of projects:
1) The spread of corona disease: with the spread of this virus and its detection in the country since March 2018, economic sectors throughout the country were affected by its consequences. The restrictions applied to control this disease have had the greatest effect on the service and tourism sectors, which can be effective in the performance of these sectors as an external effective factor.
2) Inflationary stagnation: with the intensification of cruel sanctions against Iran since the beginning of 2017 and the shock of the exchange rate jump, the country's economy has experienced high inflation rates and low and even negative economic growth in these 4 years. According to the published statistics, the industry and mining sectors have received the most impact from these conditions and have faced more negative growth.
Among the cases that are considered as deviations based on the goals of the plan or the cases listed in the regulations and law, a low percentage of the plans have deviations.
Original Article
International Economics
sarvoddin fathi; masod nonegad; hashem zare; ali haghighat
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
The selected member countries of the Islamic Conference, including Iran, with different cultural, social, economic and environmental structures, have high degrees of instability in economic variables. Economic growth and inflation in the economy of these countries, compared to the economy ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
The selected member countries of the Islamic Conference, including Iran, with different cultural, social, economic and environmental structures, have high degrees of instability in economic variables. Economic growth and inflation in the economy of these countries, compared to the economy of advanced countries, are more exposed to fluctuations. Experimental studies conducted in many of these countries show that there is a strong relationship between the real exchange rate and oil shocks and the performance of indicators such as inflation and economic growth. It has been developed and is being developed to examine the effects of oil shocks on the macroeconomic structure.
In fact, with the occurrence of positive oil shocks in the 1970s and the subsequent occurrence of the global economic recession, the attention of many researchers was directed to the study of the effects of oil shocks on the macroeconomic structure. On the other hand, the fluctuations caused by the real exchange rate due to creating uncertainty among the economic agents affects their future decisions to make investments (domestic and foreign). Since the investment is part of the demand of the entire economy and any disruption in it leads to disruption in production, therefore any change and fluctuation in the real exchange rate will also affect the economic variables.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Effects of independent variables on economic growth in oil exporting countries
Oil price shock: A decrease in the price of oil will reduce the government's oil revenues in oil exporting countries. Since the current expenses are sticky towards the bottom and it is not possible to reduce it easily when the oil revenues decrease, the decrease in oil revenues causes a decrease in infrastructure investments, which in turn decreases the production of the society.
Fluctuation of the real exchange rate: Fluctuation of the real exchange rate is due to the increase in the costs of producers due to the increase in the price of raw materials, intermediate goods and imported capital, which can lead to the weakening of domestic production and the reduction of economic growth.
Effects of independent variables on inflation in oil exporting
Oil price shock: An increase in oil prices will probably decrease the total supply. Because with the increase in the price of energy, companies buy less energy, so that the productivity of labor and capital, followed by potential production, decreases and the level of prices increases.
Volatility of real exchange rate: Increase in exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainty in it causes an increase the risk of international trade and increases the cost of trade, which causes a decrease in trade and a decrease in production and economic growth, and finally causes an increase in the price level.
Effects of independent variables on economic growth in oil importing countries
Oil price shock: An increase in oil prices by transferring income from importing countries to oil exporting countries causes a decrease in total demand and a slowdown in economic activities, resulting in a decrease in economic growth.
Fluctuations in the real exchange rate: With a decrease in the value of the currency, the price of imported goods increases. Now, if these imported goods are intermediate goods, the increase in their price leads to an increase in the production costs of goods that use these goods, which leads to a decrease in total production and economic growth.
Effects of independent variables on inflation in oil importing countries
Oil price shock: An increase in oil price leads to a decrease in disposable income in oil importing countries, and with an increase in production cost, it also reduces investment demand and increases the price level.
Volatility of the real exchange rate: An increase in the real exchange rate causes a decrease in the value of the national currency and an increase in the price of intermediate and capital imported goods, and causes an increase in production costs and, as a result, an increase in inflation.
3- METHODOLOGY
The current research is to investigate the effects of positive and negative oil price shocks, real exchange rate on economic growth and inflation in crude oil exporting and importing countries from two selected groups including twelve exporting countries (including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Ecuador, Angola, Venezuela) and twelve oil importing countries including (Malaysia, Egypt, Mali, Gabon, Tunisia, Togo, Sudan, Guinea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey) will use. A model that can take into account the asymmetric impact of shocks is called GARCH-exponential or EGARCH model, which was presented by Nelson (Nelson, 1991). The reason for inventing this model is that the ARCH model considers the effect of good and bad news equally, and on the other hand, all conditional variance coefficients must be positive. To achieve this goal, by adapting the study economic growth and inflation models are introduced as follows:
[1]
[2]
LVpoil (logarithm of positive oil price shock), LVnoil (logarithm of negative oil price shock), LInf (logarithm of inflation), LRER (logarithm of real exchange rate), LVRER (logarithm of volatility of real exchange rate), LK (logarithm of investment) LE, (logarithm of human capital) and coefficients β, γ, ψ, λ, δ reflecting short-term and long-term relationships between economic growth variables and inflation with It is explanatory variables. The coefficient ε is the error component and the index i represents the country and the index t represents the time.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Our results show that the research hypothesis that the reaction of economic growth and inflation to oil price shocks is asymmetric in both groups of oil exporting and importing countries. Also, the results of the tests and estimation of models show that real exchange rate volatility has a negative and positive effect on the economic growth and inflation of oil exporting countries and a positive effect on the economic growth and inflation of oil importing countries.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Policy recommendations
Oil exporting countries
1- Governments can disconnect their expenses from oil shocks by implementing stabilization mechanisms such as foreign exchange reserves.
Oil importing countries
1- Oil-importing countries, considering a strategic oil reserve, can use that strategic reserve at the time of a sudden increase in the price of oil and avoid the bad impact of the oil price shock on growth indicators.
Keywords: Oil Price Shocks, Real Exchange Rate Volatility, Economic Growth, EGARCH.
Original Article
Regional Economics
mohammad ghadimi; mohammad solimani; seyed sajad mosavian; mostafa yakhchali
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Undoubtly, the development of the border areas, especially the border areas of Sistan, will stabilize the border population, increase the security factor, deterrence, peace and tranquility in the region. Also, since the border areas are extremely important in foreign trade and ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Undoubtly, the development of the border areas, especially the border areas of Sistan, will stabilize the border population, increase the security factor, deterrence, peace and tranquility in the region. Also, since the border areas are extremely important in foreign trade and foreign exchange, the development of these areas will lead to the economic prosperity of the region and the country. Although various dimensions of issues and problems related to border areas have been studied sporadically since the past, but the development of these areas with this title, not only its place in the country's development planning system has not been explained, but also its dimensions and characteristics are less. Therefore, the necessity of conducting scientific studies in this regard is felt more than before and they are identified and studied. In order to achieve comprehensive development, there is a need for national and regional planning, formulation of strategy and identification of development obstacles. In the strategic approach, it is necessary to provide a future perspective and a clear understanding of the future. Therefore, the main issue of this article is how to develop the border areas of Sistan, in other words, how to get the border area of Sistan out of deprivation and poverty. In this article, by examination the capacities and challenges of this province, operational requirements and solutions for the comprehensive development of the border areas will be presented.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Regional development is also a change in the spatial distribution of economic and social phenomena such as population, income, government revenues, production of various goods and services, transportation facilities and other social infrastructures and even political power (management planning, 2006:11). Regional development often includes two conflicting goals of people's well-being and places' well-being. It is always known in advance that creating employment in the places where people live, due to avoiding psychological and economic costs of migration and natural resources, capital equipment and social infrastructure, is a priority to ensure employment in other places.
According to the studies conducted in this field, it can be said that in connection with the development of border regions, various theories such as the theory of the crystalline central place, the growth pole theory, the theory of the center of growth, the theory of the center around, and the theory of the return of the center are used, each of them with they are designed according to certain conditions and principles and are used at certain levels.
As a result, the theoretical framework of the development of border regions is in the whole framework of regional development. Since the border regions are different from the central regions, this theoretical framework is based on the interpretation of the phenomenon of regional imbalance between the border regions and the central regions. Basically, all theories related to regional development revolve around regional imbalance as the center of their discussions.
3- METHODOLOGY
Thematic analysis is a method to recognize, analyze and report patterns in qualitative data. This method is a process for analyzing textual data and transforms scattered and diverse data into rich and detailed data. Thematic analysis is not only a specific qualitative method, but also is a process that can be used in most qualitative methods.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The requirements for the development of Sistan region are:
Solutions related to industry and mining
Creating user industries instead of capital-intensive industries
Investment of government, public, non-government and private sectors in the production sector
Investing in the mining sector of Sistan region
Solutions related to trade facilitation and expansion
Development of border markets
Establishing the economic dependence of Afghanistan for the development of trade relations
Solutions related to agriculture
Negotiating with Afghanistan for extraterritorial cultivation
Completion of the 46,000-hectare plan of His Highness Zeleh Al-Ali
Revival of Hamon International Wetland
Preventing excessive evaporation of surface water
Implementation of deep wells project
Expanding and promoting productive agricultural supply chain
Facilitating contract farming conditions
Solutions related to the field of tourism development
Facilitating medical tourism conditions
Livelihood solutions
Legalizing fuel transportation
Avoiding unmanaged grants
Implementation of the plan of home solar panels with long-term facilities
Implementation of innovative empowerment plansand environment of the region)
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Sistan and Baluchistan province, being located in a special geographical area, has potential in terms of mineral capacities, clean energy, as well as opportunities for foreign exchange and transit of goods, and is at risk from various economic, cultural and social, political, security and infrastructure challenges. Therefore, any development planning for the province and especially the Sistan region should take into account its special conditions. The province's challenges are mainly caused by weakness in regional development planning, weak diplomacy in water and trade, large size of the province, drought, dominant security perspective, weakness in commercial and property laws and diversity of ethnic groups and religions. The result of the province's problems has caused this province to lose its high position in the production of agricultural products, and by not substituting industry for agriculture, it turned to the service sector over many years, and due to the limitations of the service market, a large number of people to immigrate to this province. This, while disrupting the ethnic composition of other parts of the country, has led to the formation of marginalization, increased statistics of social damage and corruption in this province, and has also depopulated the border, which itself is considered a security threat. The development of Sistan region has its own requirements and according to this situation, it is necessary to comprehensively plan regional development and carefully study the economy and capacities of Pakistan and Afghanistan. In completing and developing the province's infrastructure and industry - especially in the Sistan region - provide the necessary ground to preserve the population structure and prevent the migration of people in this region.
Original Article
ahmad hajarian
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
According to ILO data, most of the poor live in rural areas, where the poverty rate is four times higher than in urban areas, and the lack of suitable work is strongly felt in these areas. The villages of Zahedan city have faced many problems such as drought, poor sanitation, ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
According to ILO data, most of the poor live in rural areas, where the poverty rate is four times higher than in urban areas, and the lack of suitable work is strongly felt in these areas. The villages of Zahedan city have faced many problems such as drought, poor sanitation, poor infrastructure, problems caused by the corona epidemic, weakness in the health and sanitation system, and other issues, which caused the corona to impose a double economic burden on the households. Considering that the lack of control of the disease and its spread and new strains can have many consequences for the economy, especially the rural economy, on the rural households of Zahedan city, and it will bear significant negative effects, it is appropriate to address this issue in this research. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question, what are the effects of the corona disease epidemic on the economic structure of rural households?
According to our question, the assumptions of the research are as follows:
It seems that Corona has had a significant impact on rural production, business environment, villagers' debt, the amount of working capital and the amount of migration in the rural areas of Zahedan city.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
While the world is struggling with the corona virus epidemic, the economic effects of this virus are becoming more evident day to day. The initial estimate indicated that if the virus becomes a global pandemic, most of the world's major economies will lose at least 2.4% of their GDP value during 2021. Currently, the leading economists predict that the global economic growth will be 2.4 to 3 percent less than the previous estimates. For a more realistic understanding of these numbers, it should be said that the current global GDP is estimated at 86.6 trillion US dollars. In this case, the 2.4 reduction in economic growth will be something equivalent to 2 trillion dollars. However, these predictions were made before Covid-19 became a global pandemic and before widespread restrictions on social contact were implemented to stop the virus epidemic.
From the point of view of economics, the economic damage caused by the epidemic of Covid-19 is largely due to the decrease in demand, which means that there is no consumer to buy the goods and services available in the global economy. This impact can be clearly seen in affected industries such as airlines and tourism. Countries have imposed travel restrictions to slow the spread of the virus, and many people are unable to use airlines for vacations or business trips. This decrease in consumer demand causes, despite the obvious danger that the world economy is in, there are also reasons based on which we can hope to avoid such pessimistic scenarios. Governments have learned from previous crises that the effects of recession caused by demand can be countered by increasing government spending. As a result, many governments, while increasing the monetary well-being of their citizens, try to facilitate the access of various businesses to the required financial resources so that they do not face problems in keeping their employees during the disease epidemic. In addition, the specific nature of this crisis can have positive effects on sectors such as tourism, food retailing, and health care, and generate some economic growth to compensate for the damage.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of practical purpose and in terms of the nature and method of doing the work, which is carried out by two methods: library study and field survey. In the descriptive study section, the library method has the main application because the theoretical foundations of research and research on the subject of the research can only be done by reviewing the existing and documented studies and researches. The statistical population of the research consists of the rural households of Zahedan city, due to the dispersion of the villages and their large number, 20 villages were randomly selected as sample villages, according to the census of 2015, these villages have a total of 4456 households equal to it had a population of 18.365 people, and 354 people were selected as a sample by using the Cochran formula. In order to collect research data, a researcher-made questionnaire was used, whose face validity was confirmed by professors and experts related to the relevant rural economy.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Our results show that the significance level for all variables is less than 0.01, which indicates that the results can be generalized to the entire statistical population. The obtained beta value shows the greater impact of Corona on economic indicators. The results of the test show that Corona has the greatest impact on the business space variable with a beta coefficient of -0.398 and the least impact on the migration variable with a beta coefficient of 0.147.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
In examination of the status of economic indicators in the studied villages, it showed that all five indicators of rural production, business environment, working capital, villagers' debt and migration were evaluated at an unfavorable level. In examination of the effects of the corona virus epidemic on the economic indicators of rural households in Zahedan city, the results showed that the corona virus epidemic has the greatest impact on the variable of business environment and the least impact on the variable of migration. Also, the corona virus epidemic has an effect on the variable of rural production and working capital.
One of the investigated variables is the increase in villagers' debt. The increase in the debt of the villagers is one of the problems that shows its effects with the closure of industries and businesses. Therefore, the government should prevent the increase in the debt of the villagers by providing suitable solutions. For example, in Lithuania, the government helps people who need help during quarantine and public shutdown through a coordinating center. In this regard, people in rural areas can be supported through programs such as granting interest-free loans and participating in their repayment.
