مقالات پژوهشی
zahra afshari
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The fertility transition in Iran has pass through different stages from 1972-2015.The total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 7.7 in 1966 to around 6 in 1976.Then it rose to 7 in 1980.TFR decline to 5.5 in 1988.In 1996,thetotal fertility rate reach to 2.8,more ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
The fertility transition in Iran has pass through different stages from 1972-2015.The total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 7.7 in 1966 to around 6 in 1976.Then it rose to 7 in 1980.TFR decline to 5.5 in 1988.In 1996,thetotal fertility rate reach to 2.8,more than 50% decline. TFR has declined further and reached 2.17 in 2000, and 1.9 in 2012 i.e. below replacement rate (Abbasi-Shavazi, et.al, 2006). Moreover the figures reveal that in 2012, in 26 out of 30 provinces of Iran TFR was below replacement rate. Fertility reduction in Iran is unique in speed of decline. The socio- economic planners believe that the decreasing pattern of total fertility rate in Iran may have adverse effect on socio- economic development of Iran, exploring the determinants of sharp decline in total fertility rate is crucial.
Theoretical frame work
Most analyses of childbearing decisions have their root in the economic model pioneered by Becker (1960) and Leibenstein (1957), where demand for children is a function of their costs and of individuals’ preferences, for a given income. Underlying this model is the notion that children are a special type of capital good, i.e. a long-lived asset that produces a flow of services that enter the utility function of parents.
There are many socio- economic candidates for explaining this trend, including socio-economic development. Furthermore,Several key strategies contributed to rapid fertility decline ,including the role of women,the public education campaigns, population family planning , economic instability.
Methodology
This article provides a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic instability on TFR in Iranian provinces through a panel data econometric model for the 2006-2012 periods. For this purpose two key determinant of business cycles, i.e. the rates of unemployment and GDP per capita growth were used. The model is elaborated with the Eviews 7 software package. First, the Limer test accept the panel data versus pooled data. Second, Hausman test reject random effect versus the fixed effect.
Results & Discussion
The results reveal that total fertility rate was moved positively with the rate of growth of per capita income, and negatively with unemployment rate. Therefore ttotal fertility rate revealed a procyclical behavior in the provinces of Iran. These results confirm the Pennsylvanian school of thoughts. Becker (1981) argue that the rise in income induces the fertility decline, because the positive income effect that is generated by increase in income is dominated by rising opportunity cost of children. In Iran economic instability that mirrored on two digit unemployment rate during the period under consideration, postpone the marriage and child bearing time to an appropriate economic situation, can be consider as a major explanatory factor for the high speed of total fertility rate in Iran. This is consistent with the results by other authors in other countries (Sobotka T, et.al,2011, Adsera and Menendez, 2011) Moreover, the model shows a positive relationship between female labor force participation and fertility in Iranian provinces during the period under consideration.Various authors(Nourouzi, Ladan, 2008, Mehregan, Nader ,et al, 2010) find a negative correlation between labor force participation of women and total fertiliy rate in Iran , but our findings based on provincial data reveals that this correlation turened to a positive value . This result is consistent with The evidences from OECD countries (Ahn and Mira,2002,,Bettio and Villa, 1998, Engelhardt and Prskawetz, 2004). These authors show that the countries that have lowest level of total fertility rate are those with relatively low levels of female labor force participation rates.
Our findings show a significant negative relationship between GDP per capita and fertility in Iranian provinces, Economic development through increasing the women higher education, increased the female labor force participation rate. Increasing the share of women with higher education, postpone the marriage age of woman and restructure the decision making within the family, decrease total fertility rate. We may conclude that economic development through increasing the share of women with higher education, and the average age of women in first marriage tend to decreased total fertility rate, which confirm the Leibenstein modernization school.
Conclusions & Suggestions
In Iran, from one hand, hand, the signs of movement toward a developed countries (i.e. GDP per capita growth, Educational progress especially among women, labor force participation of women) is apparent. These progresses caused TFR to decline. On the other hand the planners believe that the current trend of fertility is a burden to sustainable development in Iran. Therefore, the policies should be directed toward an optimal total fertility rate. The results indicates that unemployment is not only has a negative impact on the current family income, but also is a treat for future employment of the family. The unemployment persistence, increase the age of marriage, postpone child bearing, and the number of children. Therefore, unemployment not only affect the timing of fertility, but also decrease TFR. Therefore, with respect to the important role of economic instability on total fertility rate, implementing policies that stabilized the economy is required .Moreover, with respect to irreversible nature of development, in order to diminish the adverse effect of this process on total fertility rate, labor regulations should move toward a family supportive regulations. , otherwise the current fertility trend will be unavoidable.
مقالات پژوهشی
seyed mahdi pazham; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Economic growth and development has always been being a major goal of policy makers. They have always been seeking factors to increase growth's speed. There are some different theories that each one, account of some kinds of factors related to the growth. In the earlier ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Economic growth and development has always been being a major goal of policy makers. They have always been seeking factors to increase growth's speed. There are some different theories that each one, account of some kinds of factors related to the growth. In the earlier of growth literature theories, the focus was on two factors: physical capital and labor. But these theories couldn't exactly explain the persist gap between different countries ‘per capita income. This cause to more pay attentions to some other factors that are seemingly insensible in the first glance. The advent of knowledge- oriented economics is the outcome of this new vision on growth field. In modern economics, knowledge is the main factor in production function. There are some indicators to measure the knowledge applied in a country's products. Economic complexity index is one of them. This article wants to examine the effect of this variable on economic growth. For this, the article examine growth model by using panel econometrics technique during 1996-2012 for 42 Chosen Countries (The top 42 countries producing science).
The structure of this paper, in theoretical basis, is to examine the ideas of economists in the world and background research, furthermore, Economic Complexity Index and check out selected countries in this indicator, research and study models will be introduced. Final section will be devoted to analyzing the results and conclusions estimates.
Theoretical Frame Work
As seen in all of these theories, knowledge has always been considered the engine of economic growth in two ways on the production and consequently affects economic growth: as a new production or to increase the overall productivity of production factors.
Since 2006, a group of authors began to explore the extensive economic growth based on the idea of "the products" and "complexity economics" were. The group's research led to the extraction of economic complexity Index (Hidalgo and other, 2007). Based on this thinking, the most important determinant of the level of development of each country, based on its knowledge of the country. Knowledge means of a stream of experiences, values, and attitudes expert information system is a framework to evaluate and take advantage of the experience and new information gives (APEC.2002).
Methodology
In this study, data from the first 42 countries in the production of knowledge is analyzed. Period of study 2012-1996 Ast years. Statistics variables above except the index of economic complexity, for all the countries in the study were collected from the site of the World Bank. In order to avoid bias said, be on the side of the complexities of economic and other factors affecting economic growth are properly specified model.
According to the theoretical literature on the factors affecting economic growth, the most important variables affecting economic growth in the countries studied, per capita physical capital formation (CF), government size (GE), human capital (LE), the volume of trade (TRAD), in addition to the economic complexity index (ECI) growth models have been added.
Econometric research process consists of three steps:
1. Cross-sectional data unit root test
2. The accumulation of data on cross-examination, if not stationary variables
In the case of co-integration vector accumulation estimate coefficients of the variables
Results and Discussion
As mentioned, according to the estimated model, the relationship between economic growth and negative economic complexity index, and this is unexpected. To investigate the cause of the issue, again a model for cross cutting (Cross-Section) estimated that the estimated model, the relationship between these two variables is positive and significant for the years after 2006. For a certain period and between different countries is presented. The results show using panel data technique is not appropriate, however cross-section estimation of model shows positive effect of Economic complexity index on economic growth.
Conclusions & Suggestions
In advanced economies contemporary knowledge in the development and growth of the country's annual production (GDP), played a key role stems. Economic Complexity Index, an indicator for measuring the amount of product used in a country. In this study, the relationship between these indicators and economic growth top 42 countries in the production of a 17-year period (2012-1996) and related techniques using panel data consists of panel unit root, panel Hm Anbashtgy , Has been studied. The results of research panel data; on the contrary the index suggests a negative relationship with economic growth of the countries that represent the inappropriate use of panel data in this research model. But the results of cross-sectional data model represents a significant and positive relationship between these variables on economic growth.
Economy reaching a middle-income country in the world, due to the unlimited supply of natural production factors (eg oil and abundant labor force) and rely on a certain level of production and industries heavily on its user.
مقالات پژوهشی
Ali Firoozzare; naser shahnoushi
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
A lot of activities in environmental economics scope have concentrated on this question that why some developing countries suffer from environmental degradation, whereas other countries can maintain or enhance the environmental quality. With the collapse of communism ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
A lot of activities in environmental economics scope have concentrated on this question that why some developing countries suffer from environmental degradation, whereas other countries can maintain or enhance the environmental quality. With the collapse of communism and economic evolution of China, most people live, work and bargain in free market economies. Hence, future quality of environment depends on the relationship between pollution and the growth of the free market. The principle cooperation of economists in investigation of this issue is related to Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. In short, this hypothesis is based on the principle that economic development strengthens the environment and also weakens it. Economic development especially in poorer countries mostly results in decreasing environmental quality, but continuity of this trend can solve a lot of environmental related problem in countries with moderate and wealthier economy. On this base, the aim of this research is investigation of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in selected countries of four income groups of the world.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) assumes that there is not a monotone and constant relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and environmental quality. If environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is true, per capita income trends will underestimate general changes in welfare in rich countries and overestimate them in poorer countries. A number of World Bank economists have argued that environmental Kuznets curve shifted to left and down during the time. If their conclusion is correct, then developing countries will be able to take advantage of this issue in two ways. First, probably they will reach their turning point earlier than other countries (which have reached their income turning point in the past). Second, before reaching the turning point, they suffer less environmental damage.
METHODOLOGY
In order to investigate environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, present research has applied multilevel modeling which relaxes a lot of previous research deficits. Multilevel modeling helps more precise data analysis through maintaining categorized and hierarchical structure of data and in fact by using original data structure in analysis process relaxes the heteroscedasticity - which is resulted in due to integration of hierarchical structure of data- as much as possible. In this regard, present research by using time series data of 1991- 2009 for 33 selected countries in four income groups (high, higher than average, lower than average and low income) has investigated the relationship between CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP). Original data of real GDP (year 2000 dollar), population (in order to account per capita) and CO2 emission have been gathered from world development indices of World Bank.
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Results of this research indicate the necessity of applying multilevel modelling in evaluation of this hypothesis. Based on this model results EKC hypothesis would not be rejected and also high income countries have passed per capita GDP level of Kuznets Curve turning point and therefore they are in the descending part of this curve. Whereas, low and lower middle income countries are far away from per capita GDP of maximum pollution and until they do not use market and non-market forces, remain in the trap of pollution increase as a result of GDP increase. Based on these findings, higher than average income countries are able to reach this level, hardly.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Taking into consideration of the real world and current situation of low and lower than average countries (from the aspects of technology, infrastructures and different political and economic structures, etc.) reaching to descending part of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is approximately impossible. In order to fulfill the part of descending pollution, it is necessary to make major changes in market and non-market forces of these countries. Price and technology are two of the market forces of this atmosphere. Prices are the most fundamental factor affecting on form and situation of EKC. Higher energy prices delay the economic development, but one of the advantages of higher energy prices is incentive to reduce consumption. Other forces affecting EKC atmosphere are non-market forces like government role. Government measurements like green (clean) technology help to explain both the form and situation of Kuznets curve. In addition, better information about environmental hazards can shift the curve through the need for rules and regulations in lower level of per capita income.
مقالات پژوهشی
mohammad nabi shahiki tash; emad kazemzadeh
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Hospitals are the most important and complex social units which are intended to protect the lives of people and to treat and improve them. With the passage of time and progress in science, hospitals have been equipped with more advanced technology and facilities. More ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Hospitals are the most important and complex social units which are intended to protect the lives of people and to treat and improve them. With the passage of time and progress in science, hospitals have been equipped with more advanced technology and facilities. More active beds in hospitals are indications of specialized manpower, equipment and facilities for the patients, diagnosis of diseases and other services in this regard. In this study, we investigated the distribution of hospitals and active beds in Provinces of Iran.
Theoretical Framework
The spatial concentration of active beds of the hospitals of each Iranian province in 2013 was computed using absolute concentration indices, i.e., concentration ratio of K top provinces, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI), Hall Taydmn Index (HTI), Comprehensive Index of Regional Concentration, Hanna Kai Index and Entropy.
Methodology
To calculate the concentration ratio of K provinces, the sum of share of K largest provinces should be calculated. For Herfindahl Hirschman Index, the share of the sum of the square of province size is considered the share of that province. According to this relationship, provinces with greater shares are given more weight. The Comprehensive Index of Regional Concentration was introduced by Hurat (1970) to overcome the inefficiencies of previous indices. Using this index, it is possible to simultaneously calculate the relative distribution of the share of each province and its absolute size. In Hanna Kai Index, two parameters, i.e., sensitivity and the specific value of market share are used to illustrate the view of the researcher as to the changes in the concentration caused by the entrance and exit of provinces and the share of facilities among the Provinces of Iran. The value of Entropy Index has an inverse relation with the degree of spatial concentration. If the whole share is for one province, the value of the index approaches zero. When the shares of all the provinces are equal, the value of the index will be maximized.
Results & Discussion
Calculating the concentration index of k top provinces, we figured out that spatial concentration of active hospital beds are low regarding that the share of 4 top provinces is about 40 percent of Iran. The value of Herfindahl equals 834.852 this index can be used to conclude that the spatial concentration of the number of active beds in Provinces of Iran are low. The value of Comprehensive Index of Regional Concentration is 0.2892. Because this value is near zero, there is a low concentration in the number of active beds in Provinces of Iran. The value of Hanna Kai Index is 9.916 when =2.5. The value of Entropy Index is 4.289. This index has an inverse relation with the degree of spatial concentration. It can be stated that the concentration of active beds in Provinces of Iran is low according to Entropy Index.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The ratio of spatial concentration of four top provinces, Comprehensive Index of Regional Concentration and Entropy Index are 44 %, 834, 0.062, 0.29 and 4.289 respectively. In addition, Hanna Kai Index for α=0.6, α=1.5 and α=2.5 is 23.86, 15.12 and 9.91 respectively. Regarding the obtained results from these indices, it can be stated that there is a low concentration in the distribution of the number of active beds in Provinces of Iran and that active beds are distributed in the provinces in a relatively appropriate manner. Taking population into consideration, regional inequality is low in Provinces of Iran regarding the distribution of active hospital beds.
مقالات پژوهشی
atefe ahmadi; Khadije Nasrollahi; Nematollah Akbari
Abstract
While one of the society basic needs in present conditions is in economic structures changes in order to create new job opportunities, it requires the identification of investment opportunities. Identifying the comparative advantage of economic activities in different areas, provide the possibility of ...
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While one of the society basic needs in present conditions is in economic structures changes in order to create new job opportunities, it requires the identification of investment opportunities. Identifying the comparative advantage of economic activities in different areas, provide the possibility of optimum resource allocation by local and foreign investors. According to the comparative advantage theory if the country produce a product cheaper relative to other goods, that country has comparative advantage in the production of such goods and so entering into the international trade can benefit the country from the issuance of the goods where comparative advantage has been revealed. For a long time in economic analysis, particularly in the area of international economic analysis the regional dimension of activities has been ignored. But during the 1970s, a new field of science known as economic geography was formed. The main focus of this major is on identifying the dynamic of activity location with respect to the factors determining the geographical location and strongly was influenced by neoclassical economic theory. In this regard, the geographic location and climatic conditions of Bushehr province, creates some potential capacities in the development of the service sector in some context.
With regard to the importance of the service and trade sector globalization through foreign direct investment, in this study, using the indices of location quotient in the process of identifying the local economy possibilities, the local economy is compared with a reference palace and the needed indices are calculated. That is, each index is calculated as the ratio of the same index value for Bushehr province and Iran as a whole. Then, using a combination of factor analysis and numerical taxonomy to determine priorities in the services sector and business investment in the province in the years 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011 were used. In this study, with the activities homogeneity assumption, priorities based on selected indicators show the competitiveness of the activity. Thus in the experimental section to determine the competitive and prioritized activities the used indicators such as profitability (output input ratio, value creation, location coefficient based on value added and production per capita), the employment index (production employment share of workers index in each activities), performance indicators (inputs productivity, labor productivity and labor intensive using) are calculated using the quotient coefficient method, then by entering these indices into factor analysis environment, the score matrix was calculated, and using numerical taxonomy the distance matrix is composed . Then, with the homogeneity range calculation in each year in each stage, the activities which are heterogeneous with regard to other activities are omitted and prioritization of homogenous activities have been carried out.
With regard to this matter that identifying exiting opportunities can gradually expand the development in the economic and social well-being of the regions and areas with comparative advantages, the results indicate that the province's water transport services sector in 2005, this indicates the existence of internal competitive advantage of these activities in the province in this year. That is many goods and raw materials export and import happen more quickly and at lower cost because of the province open access to the Persian Gulf Sea. In 2007 road transport services, according to the reason for the entry and exit of the requirement goods from customs and special economic zones in the province of Bushehr, the transfer of goods to other parts of the country has relative advantage to other activities with utmost efficiency. In 2009 air transport according to the same reasons and in 2011 the service sector has the greatest comparative advantage in private residential houses. The reasons for the existence of such a phenomenon can be job opportunities created by the atomic power plant, South Pars, the oil company, the Bureau of the province's ports which intense immigration to the province and increased demand for non-residential and residential constructions and departments of transportation services and the lake and deficiency of suitable soils for the construction of commercial and residential units in this province. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the job opportunities existence provide an upgrade competitive advantage of the insurance activity during 2005 and 2007, 2009 but in 2011 has been preset. The situation there due to macroeconomic conditions and high unemployment maintained in this province, which has caused many of entrepreneur lost their business and as a result the use of unemployed insurance services causes the reduced revenue for this services. This indicates that the province has the potential for such activities and strengthening and focusing on those activities is very important.
So we can say that the allocation of resources and investment in these activities and strengthen them is a priority in this province. According to the results of this study suggestions to the economic planners and policy makers are: 1. removing the barriers to the resources allocation and development of the activities that the province has advantage in them, 2. Given the importance of macroeconomic indicators in regional economic performance, authorities are recommended to pursue their actions in the path of economic stability, 3. Modified and revised statistical survey systems particularly regional statistical survey system to cover all aspects of the statistics and information required by researchers.
مقالات پژوهشی
mohammad alizadeh; Abolghasem Golkhandan
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to analysis the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on energy consumption in the MENA region selected countries during the period 1995-2011. For this purpose, used the model presented by Sadorsky (2012) and three indicators that measured ICT: the ...
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The main objective of this paper is to analysis the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on energy consumption in the MENA region selected countries during the period 1995-2011. For this purpose, used the model presented by Sadorsky (2012) and three indicators that measured ICT: the number of Internet users, the number of mobile lines and the number of telephone lines. Also, estimated and analyzed the short run and long run elasticities between the variables of the model using a system generalized method of moments (GMM-SYS). The results show that the development of ICT with each three measured indices, increased energy consumption per capita in MENA region selected countries in the short run and long run. So that a one percent increases in this indicator, average of energy consumption increases in the short run and long run respectively 0.007 and 0.089 percent.
مقالات پژوهشی
Mohammad Salimifar; Mahmoud Hoshmand; Mehdi Behname; Nava Ramezanian
Abstract
Introduction:
It was often believed that countries with natural resource abundance would undergo the process of development with a more accelerated pace in comparison to other countries. The experimental results, however, demonstrate a higher rate of success for countries which lack the said resources. ...
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Introduction:
It was often believed that countries with natural resource abundance would undergo the process of development with a more accelerated pace in comparison to other countries. The experimental results, however, demonstrate a higher rate of success for countries which lack the said resources. The paradoxical effects of the possession, or a lack there of, natural resources on different countries has led scientists to study the correlation between the abundance of natural resources and various aspects of development. To that end, the effects of possessing abundant oil resources on human development were studied for a selection of 20 oil-exporting countries between 2002 and 2012.
Theoretical Framework:
In the economic literature on the resource curse hypothesis (RCH), there are three general views:
One. On one hand, it would appear that the abundance of natural resources should act as a driving force and procure an accelerated pace of development and growth for the possessing countries. The reason for such an expectation is the access these countries have to resources that can bankroll their goals.
Two. On the other hand, most countries with notable natural resources, especially Oil dependent ones, have not fared well in way of achieving development in recent years, whereas a considerable number of countries that have achieved growth and development possess few natural resources.
Three. Passing judgments on the role of natural resources would have been rather easy if all the collected data was consistent with one of the above-mentioned observations. The problem escalates in severity because some countries with significant natural wealth also rank very high in terms of sustainable economic growth and human development.
Since 65 countries in the world have resource-based economies; the question of why having natural resources has led some countries to growth and human development, and others quite the other way is of utmost importance.
Methodology:
Based on the theoretical bases and previous studies, the quantitative model used in this research is specified as follows:
HDIit= αit + β OGSit + γ HPCit + θ GDRit + δ VAIit +ɛit
t= 2002, 2003… 2012
In this model, the dependent variable is the Human Development Index (HDI), and the OGS (main variable) shows a country's dependency upon oil resources. HPC, GDR, and VAI are the control variables in this model and they represent the growth rates of per capita health expenses, gross domestic product growth and the degree of Voice and Accountability, respectively.
The dataset for this study consists of the oil-exporting countries whose share of revenues from oil exports makes at least 50% of their total export revenues, which include a total of 20 countries from Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and North and South America (unbalanced data).
The research methodology for this study is analytic-descriptive, and the econometrics approach is as follows:
According to Levin-Lin-Chu test, all variables are stationary. To select the most appropriate designed estimation model, four tests were used, namely Chow, Hausman, Breusch-Pagan and F-ANNOVA, which their results indicated that the model should be estimated using panel data approach with fixed effects. Also, autocorrelation among error components, collinearity and heteroscedasticity are henceforth examined. Consequently, the HPC variable must be taken out of the model. But, In order to prevent from specification bias, important dummy variable of financial crisis should be added. Moreover, the model must be estimated using AR (1) with Estimated Generalized Least Square (EGLS) method.
The final model is defined as follows:
HDIit= αit + β OGSit + γ DUit + θ GDRit + δ VAIit + λ AR (1) +ɛit
t= 2002, 2003… 2012
Results & Discussion:
According to estimations, there is a significant and positive relationship between the OGS and HDI in the studied countries between 2002 and 2012. This result is consistent with works of Gylfason (2001), Lederman and Maloney (2008) and Pineda and Rodriguez (2010). In addition, it is predicted that GDP leads to a higher level of HDI in the country.
The rate of the GDR reflects the fact that a 1% increase in the rate of economic growth increases the human development index by 0.001 units. Managing resources export revenues in different levels of human development leads to gross domestic product (GDP) having a more significant effect on HDI. Thus, the resource curse hypothesis proposed by Sachs and Warner (1995 and 1997) and Gylfason (1999) cannot be confirmed.
Also, the dummy variable has had a negative impact on the level of HDI for these countries, a result that is also consistent with the theoretical bases of the study. However, the voice and accountability variable, has no significant effect on the human development of oil dependent countries in this model.
Conclusions & Suggestions:
The RCH cannot be approved. Because, first, despite the fact that most of selected countries with abundant natural resources have set a trend in terms of not being successful in achieving development, some of these countries, such as Botswana, Indonesia, Chile, Norway, Australia, Canada and Malaysia have not followed the trend.
Second, it is unclear whether the resource curse and its different aspects are related to a variety of natural resources or just one type.
Third, some studies have reported observations that disprove the resource curse hypothesis, although the same indicators were used in order to present the abundance of natural resources in the studied subjects.
Moreover, when each components of HDI was analysed, the outcomes showed that the effect of oil resources revenues on Human Development Index can be positive (especially on non-income components such as education and life expectancy).
Consequently, development of health education, such as educating the female members regarding their roles in the upbringing of children, and the prevention of contagious diseases in order to improve the human development index is needed. Also, allocating a greater portion of the resources’ revenues to investment in human and physical resources in order to accelerate economic growth is highly recommended.
مقالات پژوهشی
Amene Zare; Masoud Homayounifar; Mohammad Javad Razmi
Abstract
Introduction
Environmental fans believe that sustainable development depends on future needs to balance the objectives of social, economic and environmental development. Although these goals are contradictory in the short term, but will strengthen each other in the long term. Sustainable economic growth ...
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Introduction
Environmental fans believe that sustainable development depends on future needs to balance the objectives of social, economic and environmental development. Although these goals are contradictory in the short term, but will strengthen each other in the long term. Sustainable economic growth depends on a specific amount of resources, such as pollution absorption and resource regeneration. The responsible use of environmental resources makes the development of long-term stability is achieved. Sustainability is an extensive and complex, and not a deliberate action on the basis of an agent. The most important factors include: economic, environmental, social, physical and institutional. Sustainable development indicators means by which the measure the degree of development, as well as measure the success or failure of development programs. So is inevitable enjoying economic indicators, environmental, social, physical and institutional planning process and its implementation. National undesirable planning has revealed the extreme differences in geographical areas of infrastructure development in the country. The process of development is not the same in a province, such as the development of the province. Therefore it is necessary levels of stability in the period analyzed. Can provide solutions and policies upgrade sustainability by assessing the current situation. Therefore it is necessary levels of stability in the period analyzed. Can provide solutions and policies upgrade sustainability by assessing the current situation. The aim of this study is to prioritize the upgrade sustainable townships of Khorasan Razavi.
Theoretical frame work
World Commission on Environment and Development has identified the precise objectives and the broad for sustainable development. These include: continuous increase growth, change the quality of growth, essential needs for jobs, food, energy, water, and health, in a much stable population control, conservation of resources, technological change, considering both the environment and economics in decision-making; the transformation of international relations, partnership development. These postulates of sustainable development as well as the theoretical framework of the paper forms. The purpose of this paper is to determine indicators of sustainable development based on the sustainable development literature to prioritize the development of the townships of Khorasan Razavi province. The research hypothesis is: between the townships of Khorasan Razavi province, there are differences and inequalities in terms of sustainable development.
Methodology
To test the hypothesis, a number of variables were selected as indicators of economic, environmental, social, physical and institutional. Then, using software SPSS, and R factor analysis, was built index. Was obtained by Morris Inequality index, and standardized scores, status and rank townships. This type of applied research, and the research method is descriptive analysis. Location research, Khorasan Razavi province. Data for 27 townships in the province have been extracted from the 2011 population census statistics.
Results
Varimax rotation has been reduced by 60 index to 5 factors. A total of five factors covered 76.6% of the variance. Contribution (social - bio) 34.2 percent, share of (bio - socio-economic) 20.3 percent, share of (economic - institutional) 9.9 percent, contribution (social - bio) 7.8%, and contribution (bio-physical) 4.3 percent. Rank development of each township is determined based on the lowest rating standard. Townships with less points are the priority planning. Township development priority factor scores were calculated by using a regression model using the software SPSS. The five-factor model dependent and independent variables is Morris Inequality index. Beta coefficient regression model determines the priority factors. Social - biological factor first priority and environmental - social - economic factor priority is fifth.
Conclusion
Morris Inequality index showed except Mashhad and Gonabad, all of the townships had low development. But according to a standardized score, the townships of Khushab, Zaveh, and takhtjolgeh is semi -unstable. And the townships of Mashhad, Gonabab and Bajestan a metastable (developed); and other townships of development are low. By comparing the standardized score townships, hypothesis is confirmed and the most important factor for sustainable development, social - bio factor in the province.
are differences and inequalities among selection criteria of sustainable development at 27 city in Khorasan Razavi province. In all methods examined in this study, the cities of Khushab, Zaveh and takhtjolgeh were semi-stable, Bajestan, Gonabad and Mashhad were in medium level of development and the other cities had the low degree of development. The priority of predictor variables of sustainable development are as follows: social factors - biological, economic - social, economic, institutional, bio-physical, biological and socio - economic.
مقالات پژوهشی
gholamreza zamanian; javad harati; Hojat Tagizadeh
Abstract
Introduction
In 1980s many countries to finance their spending,used internal resources, especially bank credits. Government spending financing by non-bank was used in low level, because capital markets had not formed or were not strong in most countries and also financial assets were not available. ...
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Introduction
In 1980s many countries to finance their spending,used internal resources, especially bank credits. Government spending financing by non-bank was used in low level, because capital markets had not formed or were not strong in most countries and also financial assets were not available. After World War II and the effectiveness of US aid to Europe, several articles were written about the impact foreign aid. Some theories believe that foreign aid such as loans, block grants can provide economic growth, but increased lending to developing countries in the 1970s and followed debt crisis in 1982 quesioned the impact of external debt on economic growth.
According to International Debt Statistics published by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2015, total external debt of developing countries is about 5506 billion dollars, which Iran's share is 7647 million dollars . According to the report, China is the largest debtor among developing countries so that the external debt of this country is about 874 billion dollars. China's external debt in 2013 has increased more than 6 times than 2000.
One of the main challenges which most developing countries facing, is ways of financing the budget deficit and its impact on economic growth in these countries. Choosing financing instruments, especially liabilities are important for rapid economic development and being aware of the impact of these policies on macroeconomic variables is very important. How to finance the budget deficit is the key to financial sector reform. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of external debt, budget deficits and exports on economic growth in developing countries. For this purpose,panel data for the period 2003-2013 and GMM estimation method have been used.
Theoretical frame work
In general, there are three views to the use of external resources. The first view is theories that consider external sources important for growth and economic development. This view suggests that developing countries are known poor economies in terms of low savings and capital and low investment. In fact, developing countries because of low saving rate can not finance expenditures related to depreciation and replacement of capital goods. As a result, for such countries, external resources are critical to reach ideal economic growth. The second view includes theories that foreign aid is not essential for growth and development. Bauer and Yamey (1989) believe: "For developing countries, foreign aid is not necessary or sufficient for liberation from poverty, but it is possible to grow and develop without foreign aid if necessary conditions are provided and economic and social projects are done. Also if these conditions are not provide, economic development is not possible, even with the presence of foreign aid and foreign resources will be wasted ".The third view includes those views which know foreign unsufficient condition for economic growth, but believe that proper management of external debt, provides the possibility economic growth and development. The management includes allocated loans to the production of export goods and prevents the losses of received aid and so on (Gharabaghi, 1993).
Theoretical models about growth and foreign aid includes two gap patterns, Griffin theory, model three gaps and overhang hypothesis. Before the two-gap model, growth patterns often proposed based on the savings gap, But Chenery & Bruno (1962) showed savings gap is not the only limiting factor. Griffin (1970) by statistical analysis revealed that only 25 percent of the external debt is allocated to growth activities. In the other words , 75% foreign loans taken for consumption expenditures. One of the main criticisms about the two gap pattern was that received foreign loans apart from the savings and exchange gap may be due fiscal gap and budget deficit reduction. So third limitation was introduced for the growth, was the limitation of public financing gap. Bacha (1990) suggests that the economy could fill three gaps savings, foreign exchange and Budget deficit by external sources and enter the growth path. One of the main channels which external debt impact on economic growth through it, is Debt overhang (Krugman, 1988; Sachs, 1989). Large debt burden is an obstacle to investment, because investors expect return on investment reduce due to foreign creditors.
Methodology
In this study, the model Jayaraman & Liu (2009) is used:
That, RGDP represents real production as a numerical index, ED real external debt (GDP%), EXP real exports of goods and services (GDP%), BD real budget deficit (GDP%) and ε random error term. consumer price index (CPI) is used for real nominal variables. In this study the generalized method of moment's (GMM) is used to estimate the model. GMM estimator is developed by Arellano & Bond (1991) and Arellano & Bover (1995). Gmm estimation method used the two sets of cross-sectional data and time series data. The method can solve the endogeneity problems between explanatory variables. In this method, dependent variable is added to the equation with a lag as an explanatory variable (Abrishami et al., 2006). To solve the correlation between the lagged dependent variable and the error term, lag variables are used as instruments in GMM. Also consistent estimators of GMM, depends on the validity of the instruments used. To test this, the use of statistics proposed by Arellano & Bond (1991) and Arellano & Bover (1995), which is called Sargan test and validate the instruments used to measure (Yavari, et al.2010).
Results & Discussion
Based on the results, the total external debt and budget deficits have negative impact on economic growth so that one percent increase in the total external debt reduced economic growth by 0.7%. Also increase one percent in the budget deficit reduced economic growth 0.035%. While exports have a positive impact on economic growth so that one percent increases in exports increase economic growth 0.21%.
In the second model, short-term external debt has positive effects, but long-term external debt has a negative impact on economic growth. So that a one percent increase in short-term external debt, increases economic growth 0.032% and with an increase in long-term external debt, reduces economic growth of 0.12%. Budget deficit has a negative impact on economic growth, while exports had a positive effect, as a one percent increase in budget deficit, reduced economic growth 0.005% and a one percent increase in exports increased 0.24%.
Also estimated results for the two groups of countries: countries with upper-middle per capita income and lower-middle and lower-income countries , have been reflected. According to estimates, total external debt in both countries has a negative impact. While short-term external debt has positive impact on economic growth, but long-term external debt has negative impact on economic growth. Budget deficit and exports in countries with low and lower-middle income have positive impact on economic growth, while the upper-middle income countries have negative effects.
Conclusions & Suggestions
The results show that, long-term external debt and budget deficit have significant negative effects on economic growth in developing countries. However, exports and short-term external debt have positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. While the external debt is divided into 2 groups: short-term and long-term external debt, the results show that short-term external debt have positive impact on economic growth but long -term external debt have negative impact on economic growth. However, the budget deficit is a negative impact on economic growth but exports have positive impact n economic growth. According to the results, measures to reduce long-term external debt should be taken in developing countries and prevent the adoption of long-term debt or long-term debt become short-term debt. Also, due to the positive impact of exports on economic
مقالات پژوهشی
fatemeh khani; Mahmood Hoshmand
Abstract
Economic performance over time, is largely dependent on environmental policy, institutional and legal countries. Also nowadays development Industrial exports is known as the one of the best goals of economic development. The issue for many developing countries are often exporter of raw materials is important. ...
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Economic performance over time, is largely dependent on environmental policy, institutional and legal countries. Also nowadays development Industrial exports is known as the one of the best goals of economic development. The issue for many developing countries are often exporter of raw materials is important. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing industrial exports are necessary.
Hence, this study using panel data to investigate the impact of institutional quality on the export of industrial products for 14 samples from selected developing countries, between the years 2002 and 2012. In the paper than the average six indicators of good governance in the period under review as institutional index is used. In addition to the institutional index of two variables, GDP and real exchange rate countries were used as control variables.
The results confirm this hypothesis that improvements in institutional quality has a positive effect on the supply of industrial products export to countries in the study. And this study shows that to increase export supply in the countries In addition to removing financial barriers such as exchange rate should try special attention made to improving institutional quality.
