مقالات پژوهشی
Habib Ansari Samani; masoume Rouzbahani
Abstract
Introduction The main keys that influence crime rates are examined from two economic and sociological points of view. Preventing crime is one of the requirements of any healthy society. Economic inequalities and unfair distribution can be the main reasons of crimes. The complexity of the relationship ...
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Introduction The main keys that influence crime rates are examined from two economic and sociological points of view. Preventing crime is one of the requirements of any healthy society. Economic inequalities and unfair distribution can be the main reasons of crimes. The complexity of the relationship between justice and fairness on the one hand and the indicators of the distribution of economic benefits from the other hand admit the essentiality of the examining relationship between income inequality and crime rates. Recent researches have shown that income inequalities and economic discrimination are among the top priority factors that affect social crimes. This research studies the effect of various economic justice indicators on crime rates in the provinces of Iran. Theoretical frame work Studies show that the economic situation has significant effects on individual activities, including crime. In addition, the feeling of being deprived of success and exacerbating this feeling in relation to successful people (the existence of inequality) can be a source of criminal behavior (Stolzenberg et al., 2006). People who are frustrated by their failures in their community become more annoying when confronted with successful people around them. According to this theory, poor people in a situation of high inequality are more likely to commit criminal acts (Enamorado, et al., 2016). The sense of deprivation can be due to various factors such as belonging to an ethnic minority, Ethnic heterogeneity, or income inequality. Runciman& Runciman, (1966) argues in the theory of relative deprivation that income inequality has created a sense of expropriation in one person and increases injustice, thereby increasing the amount of crime committed by increasing inequality of income (Rufrancos et al., 2013). Economic and social inequalities increase the crime rate by weakening social integration and increasing the social class gap (Wilkinson & Pickett, 2010). Methodology Choe (2008) shows that the amount of crime in the past period has a great effect on the crimes of the current period. Therefore, to test the hypotheses, the GMM Arellano and Bond (1991) method is used to estimate the model. The following models are estimated for 28 provinces of Iran during the period 2000-2015. (1) (2) (3) (4) Where is the number of crimes divided by province population, represents the Gini coefficient, is discrimination indicator from a capacity viewpoint, is discrimination indicator from a need viewpoint and is the average of and . Economic discrimination index is the province's current and capital government budget divided by the capacity share (population, value-added, and area), and share of needs (unemployment rate, illiteracy rate, and life expectancy) of each province[1]. expresses the unemployment rate, is per capita GDP, is government size (division of provincial government expenditures on provincial GDP) and is the urbanization rate (urban population divided by the total population). Results and Discussion The results of the estimation of regression models are presented in Table 1. Table 1: Regression coefficients by two stage stepwise generalized moments Model/Variable 1 2 3 4 Gini coefficient 10.838*** 0.000 Capacity Discriminative Index 8.343*** 0.000 Need Discrimination Index 8.035*** 0.000 Total index of discrimination 9.702*** 0.000 Unemployment rate 0.727*** 0.581*** 0.746*** 0.552*** 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.005 GDP per capita 150.871*** 118.595*** 160.182*** 117.769*** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Government Size -0.83 -0.115*** -0.099*** -0.113*** 0.064 0.000 0.000 0.000 Urbanization rate 1.153*** 1.443*** 1.324*** 1.433*** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 CRIME (t-1) 0.562*** 0.506*** 0.523*** 0.508*** 0.000 0.000 000/0 0.000 Sargan chi-2 24.408 26.929 25.391 27.310 *** is 99% significance level and the values inside The results indicated in Table 1 show that the effect of all indicators of economic inequality on crime is positive and significant. The effect of the unemployment rate and GDP per capita on crime is positive and significant in all four estimated models. The effect of government size on the crime rate is negative and significant in models 2-4. That means government spending has been increasing welfare and reducing inequality. The impact of urbanization rates on crime in all models is positive and significant. Results show that the impact of migrations to cities and the marginalization of households increase crime. The causality test also shows that all indicators of economic inequality are the statistical cause of crime, but there is no inverse relationship. Conclusions and Suggestions The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between crime and economic inequalities. Also, causality shows that in addition to statistical relationship, causality relationship also exists. Hence, reducing income inequality and economic discrimination is needed to reduce crime. Economic discrimination of government spending can also increase the rate of crime in the provinces. Therefore, governments should realize that the discriminatory spending of governments, in needs and talents viewpoint, can in addition to slow down economic progress, lead to social harms. The results show that government size had a negative impact on the crime rate. The relationship between unemployment and crime also indicates the importance of reducing unemployment in reducing crime rates. It seems that the positive relationship between economic growth and the crime rate was due to an increase in crime benefits because of rising incomes, and because the wealthy regions are due to the opportunities available for theft (which constitute a large amount of total crime) will attract more criminals (Khan et al., 2015). Finally, increasing the urbanization rate increases the crime rate. Immigration and marginalization of cities seem to have a damaging effect on the health of the community. [1]. See Ezzati (2013) for further study on this index.
مقالات پژوهشی
Mohhamad reza lotfalipour; emad kazemzadeh
Abstract
Introduction One of the major and urgent challenges in the global dimension is energy supply for sustainable development, air pollution, and climate change due to the emission of pollutant gases from fossil fuels (e.g, coal, oil, and gas) for use in production. Various goods and services are produced ...
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Introduction One of the major and urgent challenges in the global dimension is energy supply for sustainable development, air pollution, and climate change due to the emission of pollutant gases from fossil fuels (e.g, coal, oil, and gas) for use in production. Various goods and services are produced and eventually lead to global warming (Adams, 2006). Studies of greenhouse gas production indicate that in the course of economic development, the emission of gases such as methane and nitrous oxide have played far less of a greenhouse effect over the past 60 years. It also has a longer life span than the other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This makes climate change and pollution caused by increased carbon emissions more important than other greenhouse gases (IEA, 2009). Theoretical framework In the Kuznets curve, there is an inverse relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth, meaning that per capita income increases at early growth, then decreases as per capita income reaches a threshold (Jafari Samimi & Mohamadi Khayare., 2012). Many studies have used the Cobb-Douglas production function to analyze the relationship between pollution spread and economic growth (Amri, 2016; Zhixin & Xin, 2011; Saidi & Hammami, 2015). Economic activity generates income and wealth, but neglecting environmental considerations and the excessive use of natural resources and the release of pollutions during economic growth have a negative impact on the environment. Accordingly, it can be argued that the causal link between income level and environmental quality is not necessarily one-way from income to environmental quality and can have a two-way effect (Pigou, 1920). Methodology In this study, we introduce the 3GR model and its components, which illustrate the trilateral relationships between carbon emissions, GDP, and pollution intensity, and explain their dual correlation in terms of growth rate. (1) where and is equivalent to the value of carbon emissions from GDP and the pollution intensity, respectively. is annually GDP. is pollution intensity annually. In addition, is an unknown function that points to the interactive effect on carbon emissions. In order to directly compare the effect of carbon dioxide emissions, their absolute contribution to the pollution emission is calculated by equations 2, 3 and 4. (2) (3) (4) Results and Discussion Based on Equations 2 to 4, the absolute contribution of GDP, pollution intensity and their interactive effect on carbon emissions is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Absolute share (in percent) of pollutant emission components (PE) countries Developed countries Developing countries Less developed countries Portugal Denmark Germany Indonesia Turkey Iran Ethiopia Uganda Angola 48.1 46.59 45.75 57.42 56.98 57.38 61.93 78.61 62.58 51.91 52.99 54.15 37.95 41.47 35.66 23.55 16.06 29.66 0.07 0.42 0.08 4.63 2.55 6.96 14.51 5.32 7.75 Source: Research Results Since the effect of ED for all developing and less developed countries is over 50%, so is the major factor in the changes in carbon emissions (PE). But in developed countries, the main cause of changes in carbon emissions is the pollution intensity (PI) because it is the most prevalent factor. The interactive effects of GDP and the pollution intensity for these countries range from 1 to 7 percent. Whereas Turkey's interactive share is the lowest among the least developed countries and is closer to the developed countries, but the interactive effect for Iran is close to 7%, which is similar to the least developed countries. Conclusion and Suggestions The results show that based on the 3GR model there is a direct relationship between carbon emission rate and economic growth rate or carbon emission rate and pollution intensity growth rate, while the relationship between pollution intensity growth rate and economic growth rate in selected countries when their equivalent value is constant, is inverse. The value equivalent to the rate of economic growth in developed countries is lower than in other countries. However, for the pollution intensity growth rate this relationship is inverse. The results also show that economic growth factors and pollution intensity in developed countries are approximately equal, but the share of economic growth rate in greenhouse gas emissions in developing and less developed countries is higher than pollution intensity. Also, the interactive effect between economic growth and pollution intensity introduced in the model as an unknown factor (which may be political, cultural, or social) is more common in less developed and developing countries.
مقالات پژوهشی
Mohsen Mehrara; Maryam Farshchi
Abstract
Introduction Providing health is one of the most important economic necessities to ensure a healthy and efficient employee. Improving households’ health leads to human development and increases labor productivity. Education as one of the important development factors causes increased job ...
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Introduction Providing health is one of the most important economic necessities to ensure a healthy and efficient employee. Improving households’ health leads to human development and increases labor productivity. Education as one of the important development factors causes increased job skills, productivity, and economic growth. Both health and education affect economic development, so in this study, the relationship between these two is examined. In recent decades various theoretical and practical studies have been done and a wide range of variables, including household education, have been introduced as factors that affecting household health. Theoretical framework Grossman (1972) study on health demand extends the function of household production for health and assumes that households combine inputs of medical care and time to produce health. Education as an environmental variable increases the efficiency in health production. In this context, the contribution of education to enhanced efficiency in health production has several implications for health care spending. For example, more highly educated individuals and families can economize on their use of medical care, and correspondingly, their spending to produce or restore a given level of health. However, since increased education enhances the returns to healthy days, individuals and families have an incentive to increase their investments in health and potentially, their spending on medical care. Finally, in deciding between inputs of time and medical care in health production, more highly educated households with higher opportunity costs of time and who are likely to have health insurance may seek to economize on inputs of time in health production and as a result, increase their use of medical care and incur additional health care spending. Methodology The association between households’ education and family health care spending in urban families is examined by using data from 2014 to 2017 Iranian survey of household income and expenses. For this purpose, the quantile regression estimation and Melly (2006) decomposition method have been used. In addition, to measure inequality, health care costs, and total household expenditures in different quantiles are compared. Health costs are also analyzed separately by couples' education level. Results and Discussion The results show, by holding family income and insurance status constant, the effect of higher education on health spending in most quantiles is positive. In particular, this effect is much stronger for spouses with higher education as well as for higher-health care expenditure quantiles. For example, in the high quantile of health care expenditure, Ph.D. education increases 97 percent of households’ health spending than illiterate households. This effect in the lower quantiles of health care expenditure is 0.22. The results of the Melly decomposition method show that the effect of education on health costs (from the channel of variables such as income and insurance) known as the characteristic effect was strong and in the low quantiles of the health care expenditure are even higher than high quantiles. The results of the Gini index and comparing different quantiles show that inequality of health costs (out of pocket) is more than the inequality of total costs. For example, the total cost of 0.75 quantile is about 1.7 times the 0.50 quantile, while this ratio is 4.5 times the health care costs. The effect of insurance on the low quantiles of health costs has strong and significant. Therefore, the moral hazard for this group of households (who are probability looking for prescription drugs expenses) is confirmed. But there was no evidence of moral hazard for high quantities of health care costs (possibly corresponding to hospital and emergency costs). In addition, the reducing effect of household employment and sport activities in most health costs quantiles are obvious. Studies have shown that health plan has been successful in lower quintiles of health care costs but it has had little effect on reducing the cost of health in high quintiles and paying out of pocket. Conclusion and Suggestions The development of managed care along with increased cost-effective care, especially in high health-care quantiles, is beneficial for these groups in reducing out-of-pocket costs. Techniques that benefit from the interaction of education and health can be planned and implemented according to the direct effect of education on the health of households as well as its indirect effect through the insurance and income channel so that the mentioned strategies lead to the promotion of community health. Furthermore, the results indicate that increased education leads to increased health expenditures and improved household health. As a result, by providing more opportunities to continue education, especially for undergraduate study groups, which are mostly in the low-income group, we will see the optimal allocation of resources for community health and human development.
مقالات پژوهشی
Mahboubeh Namdar; Aliakbar Anabestani; Mohammad Rahim Rahnama; Saied Reza Akbarian Rounizi
Abstract
Introduction Investigating the category of international immigration and sending capital to the hometown and finally, the new role of immigrants under the title of contributors to the development of the new issue is sometimes considered to be investigated and evaluated in many countries. In Iran, ...
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Introduction Investigating the category of international immigration and sending capital to the hometown and finally, the new role of immigrants under the title of contributors to the development of the new issue is sometimes considered to be investigated and evaluated in many countries. In Iran, with the pre- and post-revolution developments, including the disruption of the rural livelihood system in the wake of the land reform of the 40s, it was a kind of international emigration in parts of the country, most of which migrants were non-skilled workers who sought to unemployment and weaknesses of employment structure within the country. They have been sent to neighboring countries to obtain new employment and income. In this way, a wave of overseas emigration was formed in parts of the country, especially in southern provinces, including parts of Fars, Hormozgan, Boushehr, and Sistan provinces. The main destination of the immigrants is the southern rim of the Persian Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman. The relatively high volume of capital and cash funds entered into these areas has great consequences and feedback on these regions of the country and has positive and negative dimensions and effects that will be in all social, economic, institutional and community aspects, therefore, the main issue in the study of the impacts and consequences of economic and managerial-institutional results from the entry of capital of international immigrants working in the field of human settlements. Methodology The present study is developmental in the terms of purpose and descriptive and analytical in the terms of method. Documentary and field methods have been used to collect information. In this regard, questionnaires were arranged in four indicators (the indicators of employment status, the amount of the family's empowerment and assets, income and distribution, living expenses, investment amount, managerial awareness and institutional approach) based on the Likert scale and distributed randomly among citizens. The statistical population of the study consisted of 18141 households from 20 villages and towns of the region, which of these households, 314 families have been selected as the sample population based on the Cochran formula. Also, the reliability of the questionnaire was estimated with Cronbach's alpha 648.0. The analysis of the questionnaire was carried out using descriptive and analytical statistical methods including the tests of T, Pearson, multivariate regression and Gray analysis. The variables investigated in this study included immigrants' assets as independent variables and sustainable economic development-management as a dependent variable. Discussion and Findings According to the findings, 84.2% of the respondents are men and 15.8% are women, out of which 78.7% are employed, 10.5% are unemployed, 2.2% have other jobs. A comparison of current and former jobs of respondents reveals that nearly 50 percent of those currently earning a living by migrating to the Gulf countries have done so in the past (10 years or more). And 19.3 percent of those formerly immigrants are now engaged in shop and commodity trading in their place of residence, with 54.8 percent of the respondents themselves being immigrants and 44.1 percent of respondents having at least one or more of their family members are among the Gulf refugees. The results obtained from the assessment of respondents perspective using T-test in relation to the effects of immigrant capital of immigrants on economic and managerial-institutional dimensions development shows that Emigrants' remittances have been effective in upgrading and improving the majority of the studied indicators with averages of more than 3 at a significant level less than 0.05 This is indicative of the positive effect of the immigrant capitals of immigrants on promoting economic and managerial development indicators in the studied area. Conclusion Based on the results of this study, the regional pattern of Larestan Gulf travelers (southern Fars region) shows that in Iran as well as other developing and immigrant countries, international immigrants are a factor of development. These immigrants have identified many of the shortcomings and problems of their hometown and are assigned to solve it, and in various areas, including economic and institutional areas of development, have significant impacts on the areas of immigration and their birthplace. In this regard, the results of the present study indicate that there is a significant relationship between all components and independent variables of the mentioned capitals and the dependent variable of economic and managerial development, and the majority of the aforementioned indicators have a higher mean number than theoretical (3). These results have also been proven in the regression test. The regression results also show that the independent research variable is able to explain 66.0% of the dependent variable changes. The research results indicate that the immigrants' remittance has a strong positive relationship with the economic and institutional-managerial sustainable development by a coefficient of 0.818; and the index of the career and income opportunities has the most effects on the improvement of the economic and institutional- managerial sustainable development indicators by the impact factor of 0.393. According to the results of spatial analysis, villages or cities of Kermunsej, Evaz, Kurdeh, and Zarvan had influenced the most from remittances respectively.
مقالات پژوهشی
vahid arshadi; hossein amiri; maasumeh barani
Abstract
Introduction Considering the harmful and destabilizing effects of crises and shocks on the business environment, in this study, using panel models and using the annual data of the Scandinavian and MENA countries for the period 2016-2010, the effect of economic resistance indices along with other ...
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Introduction Considering the harmful and destabilizing effects of crises and shocks on the business environment, in this study, using panel models and using the annual data of the Scandinavian and MENA countries for the period 2016-2010, the effect of economic resistance indices along with other macroeconomic variables on the business environment index is examined. By implementing strategies to maximize their country's resistance to shocks, they strive to provide the path and pattern of sustainable economic growth and development with the least strain. Theoretical Foundations In the 1990s, the importance of "business environment" as a link between micro and macroeconomics space was raised in economic literature. The Index of Improvement or Ease of Business environment, due to the nature of its formation, has a new and unique approach that has been put on the World Bank's agenda since 2003 under the title of ease of doing business index. De Soto (2000) has been involved in designing the concept of the business environment and policymaking to remove barriers in the way of the private sector as the main strategy of economic development above all economists. The business environment is an influencing factor on the performance of firms that managers or owners of firms strive to improve. Review of literature Economic resistance including economic growth and improvement of the business environment is a topic that has been studied in recent years, on both national and international levels. This section discusses some of these studies. In a paper using a computable general equilibrium model, Rose (2004), studied the economic resistance of water in Portland, Oregon against simulated earthquakes with a default of 6.1 Richter and water cut-off for 3 to 9 weeks before and after the study period. The existence of a price mechanism under critical circumstances can increase economic resilience. Briguglio et al. (2008) in a study using a systematic model and a composite index analyzed economic resilience and economic vulnerability of 86 countries to the financial crisis in the period of 2001-2003. Based on the two components of intrinsic vulnerability and level of resilience, countries are divided into four categories: 1- worst (high intrinsic vulnerability and low resilience) 2- best (low intrinsic vulnerability and high resilience). 3- self-made (high intrinsic vulnerability and high resilience) and 4- spoiled boy (low intrinsic vulnerability and low resilience). Pakistan and Bangladesh have low vulnerability and resilience. Costa Rica, Estonia, Malaysia, and China are self-made. Developed countries such as Australia, Canada, France, Japan, and Germany have a low intrinsic vulnerability and high resilience (best). Methodology and results This study examines the impact of economic resistance on the business environment for the two groups of MENA and Scandinavia over the period 2010-2016 using a panel data model with the software Eviews8. To this end, we first introduce the panel data model. Panel data is a dataset that observes observations by a number of cross-sectional variables (i) over a given time period (t). In this study, after performing the Unit Root Test and other tests, the model of self-explanation with wide interval (ARDL) and estimation of short-term and long-term coefficients using the integrated group method (PMG) has been used. Conclusion and suggestions The present study examines the impact of economic resistance on the business environment based on Briguglio et al. (2008)'s model of economic resilience using a panel data model for Scandinavian and Mina countries during 2016–2010. The results of this study showed that both groups of Scandinavian and MENA economic resilience index have a positive and significant effect on the business environment index. In Scandinavia and MENA, GFCF and Inflation Rate (IF) have a positive and significant effect on the business index. Foreign Investment (FDI) and Per capita Production (IG) have a positive and significant effect on MENA. But for the Scandinavian countries, it has no significant effect on the business index (DB). According to the results of research in the countries under study, it is necessary to consider the following to improve the business environment, especially for productive economic sectors (industrial and agricultural): Improving the resilience of the national economy by improving the efficiency of the government's financial system and monetary system; Applying the component of economic resistance, extroversion approach by increasing the diversity of export goods and trade parties of the target countries; Reducing government deficit by less harmful methods The focus of creating productive employment in economic programs; Taxation of large incomes of unproductive sectors; Lack of reliance on exogenous variables to provide national resources such as oil revenues; Proper use of domestic financial capital by improving the business environment;
مقالات پژوهشی
zahir alimoradi; Ali Jahangiri; Alireza Alavitabar
Abstract
Introduction The formation of various ministries and the establishment of organizations and institutions in the national and provincial levels have made the Islamic Republic of Iran a giant service provider regime (Alimoradi et al., 2017). Performing such activities through the de-concentrated ...
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Introduction The formation of various ministries and the establishment of organizations and institutions in the national and provincial levels have made the Islamic Republic of Iran a giant service provider regime (Alimoradi et al., 2017). Performing such activities through the de-concentrated organizing pattern of provinces will threaten the country with declining productivity, undermining local sovereignty, promoting ethnic nationalism, and formation of religious militant motives (Omidi, 2013). Policymakers have been seeking to establish a decentralized model for organizing Iran's government in recent decades, but have always failed to implement decentralization policies (Alimoradi et al., 2018). The main purpose of the present research is to identify preventing factors of local self-governing of Iran provinces. Theoretical Frame work There is little research on the factors that preventing local self-government. Maykova and Simonova (2015) identified factors such as lack of maturity of local government, the inclusive patriarchal attitude of the authorities, people's preference for strong central government, poor citizen participation, belief in citizen are ineffectiveness on the local self-government activities, low trust in the local self-government, and lack of citizen awareness of the opportunities for participation in local self-government. Also moving toward local self-government is influenced by the leaders' political will to change the situation, expert knowledge on defining goals, determining the path to achieve goals, public support, and citizens' desire to change and prepare people to implement local self-government (Kobasa, 2012). Some research has also emphasized the impact of ICT on local government by reducing bureaucracy and strengthening democracy (Kumar et al., 2013). Methodology Due to the unbalanced development of the provinces, high ethnic diversity, mosaicity of the country, the existence of security threats due to the geopolitical situation of Iran, and the lack of adequate and appropriate theoretical foundations, in this research, content analysis has been used to formulating local self-government capacity model in Iran (Creswell, 2012:423). In this regard, 16 experts have been interviewed. During the process of coding and analyzing interviews data, 560 items, 430 indications, 105 conceptual codes, 17 categories were identified. By analyzing the results of the interviews through an interpretative method, 7 preventing factors included; “Elite poverty”, "Political contradiction", "Citizens' inability", “Ethnicity provocation”, “Unbalanced development”, “International threats”, “Internal threat” were identified. In order to quantitatively test the model, the researcher designed a questionnaire with 98 questions and collected data at the provincial level. Due to the few members of the statistical population (31 provinces), quantitative data analysis was performed using partial least squares (PLS-SME) using PLS software. The dimensions of the extracted model from the grounded theory method are elite excellence, political convergence, citizenship excellence, legal identity, democracy, government duties, decision-making powers, public organizations, external threats, lack of development, ethnic gravitation, internal security threats, public vitality, income sustainability, communalism strength, economic agility, law respect, efficiency in providing services and strength domestic governance. The researcher, through a quantitative test, increases the credibility and validity of the local self-government capacity model and confirms the findings of the research. Results and Discussion The value of the goodness of fit (GOF) is 0.78, which indicates a strong overall fit of the model. In the following, 18 hypotheses of research, which were created based on the findings of the interpretative method, were tested. The results of the study of the significance of the paths between the variables of the local self-government model in the provinces level of Iran could not reject 3 hypotheses. 6 other hypotheses have been rejected because of the fundamental differences between members of the small statistical community. The results of the structural equation calculations show that the categories of "desire to retain power by the authorities", "intellectual and practical failure of leaders", "citizen-mindedness", "individualism and non-citizen participation", "citizen irresponsibility", "lack of technical infrastructure" and "facilities limitation" prevent the self-governing of Iran provinces It should be noted that the present study had some limitations such as ignoring the impact of local self-government preventing factors on legal identity. Since the legal identity of all provinces is the same, this element was removed from the structural equation model because it had no variance. Another limitation of the study was the elimination of the category of partisanship. The weakness of partisanship at the provincial level eliminated this category from the structural equation model. Conclusions and Suggestions Unbalanced development of provinces and sanctions are disrupting the government duties. Identifying business capacities in the province and creating the necessary conditions for the presence of the private sector are among the strategies to enhance the capacity of the provinces to attract more tasks from the center. The desire to retain power by the authorities, the intellectual and practical disruption of leaders, and the presence of an overwhelming ethnic majority affect decision-making powers. Attracting the support of all national and provincial authorities to recognize the province's independence is one of the strategies to strengthen decision-making powers at the provincial level. Sanctions and the lack of technical infrastructure in some provinces, affect the pioneering of public organizations in technology. Reengineering, pathology, and continuous improvement of processes, eliminating parallel public sector executive activities and assisting the central government to distribute facilities fairly across provinces are among the measures taken to develop public organizations. Desires to retain power by authorities, individualism, non-participation and irresponsibility of citizens, ethnic excitement, Western divisive policies and threats to domestic security are among the factors that threaten democracy of provinces self-governing. Therefore, this strategy are suggested to reduce the problems of democracy: strengthen common religious values and emphasize Iranian and Islamic identity, develop participatory decision-making capacity, respect the rights of others in government, civil society and the private sector, and support local religious and political leaders. Political conflict, ethnic excitement, and domestic and international security threats are factors that preventing of formation of legal identity of self-governing provinces with the aforementioned characteristics. It is suggested increase understanding among stakeholders by holding conferences and discussions among scholars, policymakers and officials about local self-government and increasing interactions between central and local government.
مقالات پژوهشی
Emad Kazemzadeh; nooshin karimi alavijeh; taghi ebrahimi salari
Abstract
Introduction Good governance is an index designed by the World Bank to classify governments in terms of their attention to people and their social and economic status. One of the most important factors in implementing good governance in many countries has been environmental decision making, in today's ...
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Introduction Good governance is an index designed by the World Bank to classify governments in terms of their attention to people and their social and economic status. One of the most important factors in implementing good governance in many countries has been environmental decision making, in today's world, the environment is one of the most important issues facing people. Various factors affecting the environment include economic variables (industrialization, trade and technological inequality), political variables (democracy and despotism), social variables (urbanization and literacy rate) and government (size and quality of government). In this study, the effect of good governance on CO2 emissions in G8 countries is investigated. Theoretical framework Governance has a broad meaning that is directly related to domains such as the economic environment or, in other words, economic security, politics, society and rights. The World Bank has introduced governance indicators to reflect the institutional quality of countries. These indicators include voice and accountability, political stability, control of corruption, regulatory burden, government effectiveness and rule of law. Various aspects of governance, both direct and indirect, affect carbon dioxide emissions. Methodology Quantile regressions id based on a symmetric and asymmetric loss function and calculated similarly to the estimation of parameters in the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The general definition of quantile regression is that if the linear regression model is assumed to be the following: = + , 0 (1) ) = (2) Equation (2), the condition quantile function τ distribution of y shows to the condition of random variables x, where the following condition holds. ) = To estimate the coefficients of the model, minimize the value of the absolute value of the errors is used with proper weighing: Equation (3) obtains answers by linear programming. In this study, a panel quantile regression method with fixed effects is used. Consider the following fixed-effect panel quantile regression model: Where is the conditional 100 quantile of , is the fixed-effects parameters correlated with , which exhibits the unobservable effects of each specific country and is the slope coefficient at the 100 quantile. The unique feature of this method is that a penalty term in minimizing to address the computing problem introduces a sum of parameters; Estimates of the parameters are as follows: min(α,β) (5) In relation (5), i indicates the number of countries (N), T time period, K, the level of quantiles, x the matrix of explanatory variables and the quantile loss function. In addition, shows the relative weight for kth quantile. In this paper, = 1/K is considered. λ is the adjustment parameter that reduces the individual effects of to zero to improve the performance of β. Results & Discussion The model presented in this study is as follows: The description of variables is as follows: Table (1) - Introduction of variables Variable Definition CO2 Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons) ENC Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) GDP Economic growth (GDP per capita constant at 2010 prices) TRADE Trade openness GOVERN Governance Index URB Urbanization (urban population/total population) INDUS Industrialization The proposed model is estimated at various quantiles (0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95) and the results are presented in Table (2). Also, for comparative analysis, the results of estimating the OLS method are reported in the last column of Table (2). Table (2) – Panel quantile regression results Variable Quantiles ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Ols fixed ENC .0190*** .0193*** .0191*** .01919*** .0189*** .0191*** .0188*** .01905*** .01923*** .0191*** .0192*** 0.022*** GDP -.0136 -.0128 -.037** -.076* -.062* -.062* -.040** -.0294* -0.004 -.010 -0.009** -0.012** TRADE .0296*** .0236*** .019*** .008 .002 .002 -.009 -.011** -.020*** -.019*** -.0183*** 0.084*** GOVERN -1.008*** -.992*** -1.550*** -2.175*** -1.208** -1.013* -.763*** -.556** -.151 -.1256 -.0738 -2.276*** URBAN 0.030*** 0.0292*** 0.029*** 0.030*** 0.018*** 0.018*** 0.016*** 0.014** 0.011*** 0.012*** 0.012*** 0.101*** INDUS .253*** .270*** .277*** .271*** .082* .041 .044** .0343** .0403*** .035*** .032*** 0.156*** Constant -14.391*** -14.402*** -15.438*** -15.614*** -4.730** -2.625 -1.409 -.3849 .884 1.547*** 1.730*** 3.512*** Pseudo R2 0.736 0.728 0.718 0.705 0.720 0.756 0.795 0.832 0.854 0.867 0.874 0.90 Notes ;***significance at the 1% level, **significance at the 5% level, *significance at the 10% level. The estimation results in Table (2) show that energy consumption at all quantile levels from 5% to 95% has a positive and significant effect. As shown in Figure (1), the effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions in all countries has a constant trend. GDP has a negative effect on CO2 emissions at all quantile levels, the results of the OLS estimates also confirm the negative relationship between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. The results of different quantile levels show a strong and positive effect on the relationship between governance and CO2 expansion. Trade openness in the quantile of 5% to 20% has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but for the quantile levels above 70%, the increase in trade has a negative impact on CO2 emissions. The relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions is positive and significant at all quantile levels. The relationship between industrialization and carbon dioxide expansion is also positive and significant at all quantile levels. Chart (1)-Estimation results of panel quantile regression Conclusions & Suggestions This study investigates the effect of governance on carbon dioxide emissions in the G8 countries over the period 1996 to 2016 using the panel quantile regression method. The results show that the effect of the good governance index, which shows the quality of a country's public institutions and the ability of the government to perform its duties, has a negative and significant effect on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that represent environmental status in all quantiles. However, this effect is stronger in the lower quantiles and reduces the movement to the higher quantiles.
مقالات پژوهشی
Mohammad Reza Eskandari Ata; nader mehregan; Alireza Pourfaraj; Saeed Karimi Petanlar
Abstract
Introduction Regional unbalanced growth and the factors affecting it are one of the most important economic issues in developing countries. One of the characteristics of developing countries is the presence of significant regional inequalities. The existence of this phenomenon is one of the main impediments ...
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Introduction Regional unbalanced growth and the factors affecting it are one of the most important economic issues in developing countries. One of the characteristics of developing countries is the presence of significant regional inequalities. The existence of this phenomenon is one of the main impediments to balanced development in these countries. One of its specific consequences is the creation of inequalities and the consolidation and expansion of deprivation. Inequality alongside widespread poverty can provide grounds for public discontent and thus be one of the concerns of socio-economic policymakers. Considering the importance of balanced regional development in the country and the environmental-spatial potentials and political characteristics of the provinces, this study considers the effects of environmental and political factors on the distribution of inequality in provinces of Iran, considering the neighborhood effects. Theoretical framework Environmental differences play a decisive role in the distribution of regional inequality. At the early stage of economic development, environmental conditions are one of the most determining factors. For example, favorable environmental conditions are often the basis for rapid growth in developing countries. Although the effects of environmental conditions on regional development at higher levels are less pronounced, the specific functions of these factors are still unknown in many countries. In economic literature, several environmental factors influence and are influenced by the distribution of regional inequality. Variables such as cities with coastal boundaries, commercial areas, tourism, water resources, railways, border areas and urban development are among the areas considered in regional studies. Modern governments, unwittingly or unwillingly, engage in various economic policies such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, and commercial policy. Applying these policies shift interests and the pattern of income distribution and create winners and losers across different segments and groups of society, thereby changing regional inequalities. Methodology Spatial inequality refers to situations in which different spatial or geographical units of some variables are at different levels. In the present study, after investigating the regional inequality with regard to the effects of spillover in the provinces, an assessment of the environmental and political factors on it during 2006 to 2015 has been examined. The explanatory variables were compiled according to the purpose of the study, based on environmental and political factors that cause regional imbalances and also according to the statistical constraints of the country. According to the theoretical foundations, identifying variables in previous studies as well as statistical feasibility in the country, from three models has been used to investigate the impact of environmental and political factors on regional inequality. The variables used include urban index, dummy variable for business areas, tourist and religious centers, the logarithm of GDP, ratio of government expenditure to GDP, Ratio of education cost to the government expenditure and the members of parliament. Results and discussion The evaluation of Population-Weighted Coefficient of Variation (PW-CV) indices show that Iranian provinces during the research period have been very inadequate. The results of estimating Spatial Autoregressive with Autoregressive Error (SARAR) regression models indicate a strong spatial dependence among the provinces. So that the inequality index of each province with an approximate coefficient of 45% is affected by the economic inequality in neighborhood provinces. In the analysis of environmental factors affecting regional inequality; urban development, water resources and tourism have a negative relationship with provinces' inequality and as each of these factors increases, the inequality index of the provinces will decrease. But religious and commercial provinces have a positive impact on economic inequality; as a result, inequalities are higher in these provinces. Results of the estimation of the impact of political variables on regional inequality show that the provinces with a more gross domestic product, have a higher inequality index. Moreover, the larger the size of the government in the provinces, the more economic inequality. Also, increasing the share of education costs from provincial budgets increase regional inequality and in the provinces where the number of members of parliament is higher, there are more economic inequalities. Conclusions and suggestions According to the results of the present study, the importance of the distribution of inequality in different provinces and the effects of neighborhoods with regard to environmental and political factors are overemphasized. Governments and trusted entities in different areas can be more successful in delivering social justice and reducing regional inequalities by designing and implementing management policies tailored to each province's environmental and political potentials. Managing water resources, paying attention to tourism, controlling suburbs in big and religious cities, and implementing income redistribution policies are some of the policies that can be implemented in environmental and operational areas. Reducing government tenure and administrative bureaucracy are also some of the factors that will be effective in reducing regional inequalities.
مقالات پژوهشی
AbdolReza Kashian; mahdi soltanifar; AbdolMohammad Kashian
Abstract
Introduction Identifying regional investment priorities is one of the best ways to exploit the potential of regions, which allows for the correct management of resources. The wide and diverse range of industries and the constraints on providing the resources needed for investment have made investing ...
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Introduction Identifying regional investment priorities is one of the best ways to exploit the potential of regions, which allows for the correct management of resources. The wide and diverse range of industries and the constraints on providing the resources needed for investment have made investing prioritization a necessity. The main issue of this paper is to examine the investment priorities in the auto parts manufacturing industry in Semnan province with criteria derived from the resistance economy. Semnan province due to its convenient geographical location (proximity to the location of automotive companies) and high production value has become the fifth hub of the country's auto parts industry and has a good capacity for future investments. Theoretical framework Spatial planning, land use planning and distribution of economic activities and resources need to take into account the cultural, political, and economic conditions of the country. After the Islamic Revolution, Iran has always been subject to sanctions and political, economic and social pressures, and the government's strategy to deal with such pressures has been the policies and strategies of the resistance economy. It is natural that the issue of land management specially determining investment priorities, should follow such policies. Semnan Auto Parts Group has 105 companies that are active in the field of production of auto accessories, parts and assemblies, and the transportation industry. The employment level of these units is over 6000 people who have more than 95% of the employment share of the cluster. Despite the great importance of auto parts industries in Semnan province, the development and expansion of these industries are facing important problems, the most important part of which is the lack of clear investment priorities in Semnan province. Setting these priorities plays an important role in improving efficiency and productivity, reducing costs, and completing the cluster chains of this area of the province's industry. The resistance economy has components that need to be considered in determining investment priorities in Semnan province. These components are: being knowledge-based, being based on the private sector, being justice-oriented, endogenous, extroverted, and making the country resilient to threats. Prioritization of investment in the auto parts industry in Semnan province should be done in a way that increases the role of knowledge-based industries, an important part of this investment should be done by the private sector, priority should be given to industries that take the country out of corruption, rent and monopoly And make the best use of domestic resources, at the same time make good use of foreign capacities and markets, and finally make the country resilient to shocks and sanctions. Methodology The method used to achieve the goal of this research is the Voting Analytic Hierarchy Process (VAHP) that allows the simultaneous use of multiple criteria and can therefore include a set of components of the resistance economics. This method needs 6 Steps: 1) Selecting the prioritization criterion. 2) Configuring the hierarchy of criteria. 3) Determining the priority and ranking of criteria. 4) Calculating weights (Noguchi ranking). 5) Determining the production methods and mechanisms of each. 6) Set priorities by using exports opinion. Results and discussion Data analysis from expert opinions using the above method shows the production of 1) electronic and electrical parts, 2) casting and machining, 3) heat treatment, 4) cold and hot forging and 5) mechanical and electromechanical parts, respectively, are the 5 main investment priorities in the auto parts industry in Semnan province. In determining these priorities, the criterion of knowledge-based economy and endogeneity has the highest weight. Conclusions and suggestions This article identified investment priorities in the auto parts industry in Semnan province based on the components of a resistance economy. Furthermore, this research can be used for future research in three aspects. The first aspect is related to the research method that used VAHP. This research method, using the Noguchi scoring approach, has simplified the possibility of measuring priorities in different sectors, and for this reason, researchers are suggested to use this method and its benefits. The second aspect of this research is the subject of the automotive industry in Iran. This study examined the investment priorities in the auto parts industry and determined which of these products could be prioritized. The achievements of this research can be used as a presupposition of many other pieces of research and can examine issues such as prioritizing the purchase of raw materials, creating industrial clusters related to the automotive industry in the province and also the advantages of establishing an automotive industry in the province. The third aspect of this research is the link between prioritization and components of resistance economics that can be used as a basis for other research.
مقالات پژوهشی
Seyyed Abdollah Razavi; Motahhareh Hooshmand
Abstract
Introduction The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has enacted restrictive laws to reduce environmental pollution from burning sulfur in ship fuel. With a planned effective date of January 1, 2020, the IMO’s new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels that ocean-going ...
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Introduction The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has enacted restrictive laws to reduce environmental pollution from burning sulfur in ship fuel. With a planned effective date of January 1, 2020, the IMO’s new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels that ocean-going vessels use to 0.5% by weight. The IMO adopted the plan for this policy change in 2016 reaffirmed an implementation date of 2020. High-sulfur fuel oil is an important component of ships' fuel consumption, and demand for it is 3 million barrels per day. Therefore, it can be understood that the demand and price for this fuel oil will decrease (EIA, 2019). The Mediterranean regional market is one of several international physical global oil markets. Benchmark crude, which has a high sulfur content, is Urals crude oil in this market, and benchmark crude, which has a lower sulfur content and higher quality than other crude oils, is Brent in this market. Brent and Urals are used as a benchmark for the pricing of other crude oil in the Mediterranean market. Products made from sour crude oil have a lot of sulfur and products made from sweet crude oil have low sulfur content. Therefore, the demand for sour crude oil is declining also it is not economically viable to desulfurize the product compared to the production of low-sulfur products (Argus, 2019). In the present study, two questions are answered: What effects does IMO law have on the fluctuations in the price of crude oil in the region? Also, what is the effects of low-sulfur and high-sulfur oil products on oil prices? Theoretical Frame work One of the important issues in the field of refining growth is the ability to adapt their production operations to the current state of crack spreads and the ability to respond to demands that are sometimes seasonal and companies can change the production process and a widely used issue in the oil and product refining industry. It is up to them to sell their oil quickly to grow their incomes. Refineries are always exposed to rising crude oil prices and falling commodity prices, which, according to various strategies, increase their profits and reduce the risk of these fluctuations (Edward, 2009). Results and Discussion Since 1988 Brent has been known as the benchmark, and still used for pricing (Salvatore, 2012). One of the most widely used issues in the oil refining and petroleum products industry is crack spread, which points to the difference in the price of a barrel of refinery production and a barrel of crude oil in the study area. Therefore, the higher the difference between the prices of the two, the higher the Netback means net return, and its application is the pricing of crude oil based on a single shipment of products. To calculate the netbook value, we must first calculate the "gross product value" and then deduct the shipping cost to the refinery, the refining cost, and other related costs to refine it (Kameli, 2009). IMO is the only organization dedicated entirely to maritime affairs and a regulatory body in the field of ship fuel and sulfur pollution in marine fuels, enforces its laws to reduce these pollutions, and under the new law. Most of this fuel is high-sulfur fuel oil. According to the results, with the increase in the price difference between two products of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil due to increased demand for low-sulfur fuel oil, the price of Brent crude oil will grow, but it has the opposite effect on Urals crude oil. It reduces its price. The virtual variable in the model, which shows the effect of the decision to apply the law from mid-2016 to 2020. Brent crude oil will be directly affected by the law, and its price will rise, and its price will be reduced by the difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil products. The price of crude oil in the Urals index is falling through the direct impact of the law, and with rising commodity prices, the price of crude oil in the Urals index is rising. The crude index of the Brent index is a measure of the price of crude oil in the Mediterranean. Therefore, with the increase in its price, the price of Urals oil will also increase. The turmoil, shocks and shocks caused by the sulfur restriction law first boosted Brent crude oil prices and, given the escalation of Brent crude oil market turmoil, the turbulent crude oil market is exacerbating the downturn in the Mediterranean market. Conclusion This could encourage maritime transport companies to use alternative fuels, but this will increase the ship's fuel costs. The cost of investing in new technologies for refining fuel oil and desulfurization is very high and is beyond the reach of many high-sulfur fuel oil producing countries. The ships have never used a scrubber for two reasons. First, the installation of scrubber equipment is expensive, and if the demand for it increases, the manufacturing companies may not be able to provide it, and the demand will increase sharply, which will increase the price of scrubbers again. Scrubbers have never been extensively tested and may not fully disinfect sulfur and if refineries decide to produce low-sulfur fuel, there is no need to use scrubbers. Researchers have suggested that low-tech countries such as Iran, whose production is dominated by distillation towers such as furnace oil, could consider combining sour crude oil with water. Water increases fuel efficiency in combustion operations. This has been done by Sheila Company (Arshi, 2018).
