Original Article
Regional Economics
amirreza soori; fatemeh panahi
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the impact of macroeconomic changes on the value of currency in developed, developing and less developed countries. The data used are quarterly panel data for the period 1996 to 2022, which are presented using the Sticky Price Monetary Model (SPMM) ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate and compare the impact of macroeconomic changes on the value of currency in developed, developing and less developed countries. The data used are quarterly panel data for the period 1996 to 2022, which are presented using the Sticky Price Monetary Model (SPMM) method. The results of this study showed that there is a negative relationship between the exchange rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) in all the investigated groups. This means that increases typically lead to lower GDP, which can lead to higher prices and lower purchasing power. On the other hand, the results show that the relationship between the exchange rate and inflation (IN) and liquidity (M2) is positive in all groups, which indicates that it increases the exchange rate and increases prices and liquidity in the economy. This is especially the case in less developed countries, which may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, the research results showed that in the short term, the relationship between the exchange rate and the rate in the developed and developing evaluation is negative, which means that the increase in the interest rate is usually localized to strengthen. On the contrary, in the least developed, in the short term, there is a positive relationship between the assessment of the desire and the amount of attention given to specific economic reasons and existing shortages. These results indicate the importance of paying attention to the structural differences between countries and the need for policies based on the economic conditions of each country. In this study, the Granger causality test was used for the long-term study between the exchange rate and economic changes and the interest rate. The results of the research indicate a long-term convergence between exchange rates and economic growth and interest rates. Greater economic growth increases income and stability in the production and service sector and ultimately lowers the exchange rate. On the other hand, the ratio between currency evaluation and evaluation is also negative in the long run for all the groups under investigation. Because the increase in interest in the long term may cause a decrease in capital or the attraction of foreign capital, which ultimately helps to strengthen the national currency. These results have multifaceted economic policies and show that the management of exploitation and economic growth evaluation can achieve stability.
Original Article
Development and planning economics
Seyyed mohammad Seyyed hosseini; Arash Dourandish; Seyyed Mahdi Mostafavi
Abstract
One of the current challenges of the world is climate change and environmental pollution, which is one of the major consequences of fossil fuel consumption all over the world. To tackle this challenge, the use of renewable energies such as solar energy, especially in urban areas that have a significant ...
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One of the current challenges of the world is climate change and environmental pollution, which is one of the major consequences of fossil fuel consumption all over the world. To tackle this challenge, the use of renewable energies such as solar energy, especially in urban areas that have a significant portion of energy consumption, can be a remarkable solution. Considering the challenges of electricity supply in Iran's mega cities and emphasizing the existence of unused spaces such as rooftops of the buildings in urban aria, in this article, a solar photovoltaic power plant is simulated on a hypothetical building using PVsyst software in Mashhad city. By using criteria such as net present value, internal rate of return and payback period based on fuzzy approach, financial feasibility of the system will be calculated. The results of this study showed that a 5.5 kW photovoltaic system with grid connection type on a rooftops with area of 70 square meters without shading in Mashhad city with annual production of 9070 kWh per year has a fuzzy net present value between 1/371 to 1/776 billion Rials, the internal rate of return between 29 and 32 percent and payback period between 3.5 to 3.5 years. Therefore, the project is financially acceptable. Considering the high cost for the construction of this system, the suggestion is that the policy-makers should provide suitable credit facilities for the applicants and reduce the cost of the production of required equipment, by supporting the manufacturers and knowledge-based companies in this field.
Original Article
Growth and development economics
Mehdi Rahimiebakhshmand; Syma Eskandari; Mahdi Moradi; Seyed Yousef Hajiasghari
Abstract
Past literature has confirmed the negative effects of economic uncertainty on production, investment, and employment. However, very limited studies consider the impact of economic uncertainty and banking concentration on the informal sectors. This study examines the effects of economic uncertainty on ...
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Past literature has confirmed the negative effects of economic uncertainty on production, investment, and employment. However, very limited studies consider the impact of economic uncertainty and banking concentration on the informal sectors. This study examines the effects of economic uncertainty on the shadow economy with the moderating role of banking concentration as an indicator of the financial sector. For this purpose, data were collected from a sample of 20 MENA member countries during the period 1991 to 2020. The GMM method has been used to estimate the research models. The results show that economic uncertainty has a positive effect on the size of the shadow economy and this effect is statistically confirmed at the 95% confidence level. The results also show that banking concentration has a significant effect on the relationship between economic uncertainty and the shadow economy. So that high banking concentration intensifies the positive effect of economic uncertainty on the size of the shadow economy.
Original Article
Water economy
Amir Narimani; Mahindokht kazemi
Abstract
Today, water shortage has become a major problem. Having clean water for human needs is one of the basic factors and is known as the factor of civilization. In this research, some of the important factors affecting the water consumption of the household customers of Mashhad city have been investigated ...
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Today, water shortage has become a major problem. Having clean water for human needs is one of the basic factors and is known as the factor of civilization. In this research, some of the important factors affecting the water consumption of the household customers of Mashhad city have been investigated and a descriptive-survey method has been used to collect data. The statistical population in this research is all household water subscribers in Mashhad. 384 subscribers were determined as a statistical sample, which were selected by cluster random sampling and using Cochran's formula. The tool for collecting information in this research is a researcher-made questionnaire that includes the dimensions of income, education, consumerism, lack of awareness of the water situation, lack of attention to resources for future generations, water price and water consumption.Data analysis has been done using quantitative methods with the help of EXCEL and SPSS software and at the level of inferential statistics using PLS software. The results indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between the amount of income, education, consumerism, lack of awareness of the water situation, lack of attention to resources for future generations, price and water consumption of subscribers.
Original Article
Employment
Hossein Hajibabaei; Mehdi Ajalli; Majid Fosolee
Abstract
AbstractThe expansion and revitalization of small and medium enterprises in industrial provinces is an inevitable necessity to reduce unemployment and use the potential capacities of industrial centers. Hamedan province, like other industrial provinces, is no exception in this regard and this factor ...
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AbstractThe expansion and revitalization of small and medium enterprises in industrial provinces is an inevitable necessity to reduce unemployment and use the potential capacities of industrial centers. Hamedan province, like other industrial provinces, is no exception in this regard and this factor can be effective in the economic growth of the province. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate and prioritize the impact of facilities granted by state-owned banks on job creation of small and medium enterprises in Hamadan province during the period (2016-2021). The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The statistical population of the study includes 68 experts and managers of state-owned banks and related executive bodies involved in the research subject. Due to the limited size of the population, the census method (all members of the community) is used as a sample. For this purpose, by reviewing the literature, background and interviews with experts of state-owned banks and related executive bodies, a conceptual model consisting of the structures of "facilities granted by state-owned banks" and "employment of small and medium enterprises" was proposed. In order to test the proposed model and hypotheses and answer the research questions, the path analysis approach and the hierarchical analysis process are used. The final result of the evaluation with this process showed that the first factor (facilities related to working capital in the industry and mining sector) with the highest weight (0.43) ranked first, the second factor (facilities related to fixed capital in the industry and mining sector) It is ranked second with weight (0.36). Also, the fourth factor (facilities related to working capital in the agricultural sector) with a weight of (0.21) is ranked last in terms of importance. Finally, scientific and practical suggestions related to the output of the research hypotheses test are presented; Issues and inadequacies in the financing of small and medium enterprises in Hamadan province will be reviewed and solutions and improvement and development proposals for financing small and medium enterprises through the banking system will be presented.
Original Article
Macroeconomics
Ahmad Seraji; majid dashtban; azim nazari
Abstract
The harmful effects of high unemployment rate have made the growth of production and employment one of the important goals of developing economies. Currently, Iran's economy is facing the problem of high unemployment rate and its economic and social consequences. Oil price shocks and foreign direct investment ...
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The harmful effects of high unemployment rate have made the growth of production and employment one of the important goals of developing economies. Currently, Iran's economy is facing the problem of high unemployment rate and its economic and social consequences. Oil price shocks and foreign direct investment are among the factors that can affect the unemployment rate in Iran. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks and foreign direct investment on the unemployment rate in Iran. For this, we used time series data in the period of 1976-2021 and the NARDL method. The results of the estimation showed that increases and decreases in both variables of oil price and foreign direct investment have a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate. Therefore, reducing dependence on oil exports, due to extreme oil price fluctuations, and providing a platform to attract more foreign direct investment can lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate in Iran.
Original Article
economic development
Derakhsan Abdonaser; Alireza Abroud; Farshid Ahmadi Farsani
Abstract
امروزه توسعه مالی به طور گسترده به عنوان یک کاتالیزور کلیدی برای رشد و پیشرفت اقتصادی شناخته شده است. با این حال، تأثیر توسعه مالی بر پایداری محیطزیست نامشخص است. علاوه ...
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امروزه توسعه مالی به طور گسترده به عنوان یک کاتالیزور کلیدی برای رشد و پیشرفت اقتصادی شناخته شده است. با این حال، تأثیر توسعه مالی بر پایداری محیطزیست نامشخص است. علاوه بر این، ممکن است توسعه مالی اثرات غیرخطی و متفاوتی بر پایداری محیطزیست در کشورهای مختلف داشته باشد. از اینرو، هدف این مطالعه، مقایسه اثرات نامتقارن توسعه مالی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در سه کشور خاورمیانه (ایران، ترکیه و عربستان) با رهیافت الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) طی دوره زمانی 1990- 2022 میباشد. تجزیه و تحلیل نامتقارن، نتایج قابل توجهی را در مورد تفاوت اثرات مثبت و منفی توسعه مالی بر محیطزیست ارائه میدهد. در مورد ایران، افزایش توسعه مالی سبب افزایش ردپای اکولوژیکی میشود در حالی که افزایش بخش مالی ترکیه و عربستان به بهبود محیطزیست کمک میکند. بهرحال کاهش توسعه مالی اثر معناداری از نظر آماری بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در ایران و عربستان ندارد ولی سبب بدتر شدن کیفیت محیطزیست میشود. بنابراین یافتهای تجربی، این مطالعه پیامدهای سیاستی متفاوتی برای هر کشور در جهت دستیابی به توسعه پایدار ارائه میدهد.
Original Article
oil
Roa'a Mohammed kadhim; sara ghobadi; Hussein Shnawa Majeed Al-Zerkani; Hossein Sharifi Renani
Abstract
The household is one of the important institutions of the society, which has the role of cultivating the labor force and turning it into human capital. This important institution faces risks and harmful issues, the ability to deal with them affects the well-being of the family members and, as a result, ...
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The household is one of the important institutions of the society, which has the role of cultivating the labor force and turning it into human capital. This important institution faces risks and harmful issues, the ability to deal with them affects the well-being of the family members and, as a result, the society. In oil exporting countries, oil price shocks are important factors that affect all aspects of the economy, including the household risk preparation. The aim of the current research is to analyze the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of oil price shocks on household risk preparation in 10 selected oil exporting countries during the period of 2002-2021. For this purpose, first, the index of the household risk preparation was created using the variables of access to financial resources, social support, human capital and the economic capacity of the government and by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) method for the studied period. To achieve the mentioned goal, the principal component analysis (PMG) and the nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lags method (PNARDL) were used. The results showed that estimation by nonlinear PNARDL method is more efficient than linear PMG method. The results of PNARDL indicated that in the long run, the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the household risk preparation, while the negative oil price shock has led to a decrease in the the household risk preparation. Other variables in the model, including the global demand for oil and capital, have led to an increase in the the household risk preparation, and the increase in population has led to its decrease. The error correction coefficient also shows that in each period, 35.4% of short-term imbalances have been adjusted and moved towards their long-term trend. The result of the symmetry test indicated the symmetry of positive and negative oil price shocks in the short term and their asymmetry in the long term.
Original Article
Iran's economy
Saman Davaneghi; Seyyedkamal Sadeghi; Behrooz Pourhasan; Yusef Davaneghi; Mehrdad Babazadeh
Abstract
Environmental pollution poses a serious challenge to human societies, as it significantly threatens the safety of human life. Industrialization and foreign direct investment are fundamental drivers of sustainable economic development. Additionally, education plays a crucial role in enhancing human capital ...
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Environmental pollution poses a serious challenge to human societies, as it significantly threatens the safety of human life. Industrialization and foreign direct investment are fundamental drivers of sustainable economic development. Additionally, education plays a crucial role in enhancing human capital and improving environmental quality.This study employs the Blanchard-Quah technique to examine the effects of temporary and permanent shocks from foreign direct investment, industrialization, and education on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran between 1366 and 1399. The findings reveal that, in the short term, increases in foreign investment, industrialization, and education levels are associated with higher carbon dioxide emissions. This increase is primarily due to heightened energy production and consumption during this period.However, in the long term, no significant relationship is found between these factors and carbon dioxide emissions. This suggests that self-regulating economic and environmental mechanisms have mitigated the initial negative impacts over time. Consequently, while foreign direct investment, industrialization, and education may contribute to increased pollution in the short term, they do not have a lasting effect on environmental pollution in Iran.
Original Article
economic development
Hamid Asayesh; hadi rahmanifazli; reza shamsollahi; fattaneh niknam
Abstract
Income inequality is one of the most important economic and social issues governing any society, which is influenced by various economic and non-economic factors. Meanwhile, paying attention to issues such as good governance and related components is one of the most important factors affecting income ...
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Income inequality is one of the most important economic and social issues governing any society, which is influenced by various economic and non-economic factors. Meanwhile, paying attention to issues such as good governance and related components is one of the most important factors affecting income inequality in different societies. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the impact of governance components on income inequality in OPEC member countries during the period of 2002-2021 using the Pamel ARDL model. The obtained results indicate that an increase of one unit of corruption has led to an increase of 1.46 units in the Gini coefficient. Oil revenues have had a positive effect on income inequality. So that with the increase of one unit of oil revenues, the Gini coefficient (index of income inequality) has increased by 0.059 units. Political stability has a negative impact on income inequality. So that an increase of one unit in the political stability of income inequality decreases by 4.156 units. The quality and efficiency of the government has a negative impact on income inequality. So that with an increase of one unit in quality and efficiency, income inequality decreases by 1.106 units in OPEC member countries. Government size has a positive effect on income inequality. Thus, with the increase of one unit of government size, income inequality in OPEC member countries has increased by 0.374.
Original Article
Tourism
behnam elyaspour; Roohollah Babaki; narges sanjari konarsandal
Abstract
The expansion of the tourism industry as an industry that interacts with different fields, such as economy, culture, environment, agriculture and services, is very important and the experiences of other regions of the world have shown that the development of the tourism industry in each region has caused ...
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The expansion of the tourism industry as an industry that interacts with different fields, such as economy, culture, environment, agriculture and services, is very important and the experiences of other regions of the world have shown that the development of the tourism industry in each region has caused the economic and social development of that region. In fact, the tourism industry is the largest and most diverse industry in the world. The impact of tourism on the increase in employment and foreign exchange earnings, the prosperity of domestic industries, the expansion of international cooperation has caused the attitude of the countries of the world towards its border to change and find an important place in government policies. Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty, economic growth and exchange rate on the income of inward foreign tourists in developing countries (including Iran) during the period of 2005-2020. For this purpose, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method has been used. The results of this research show that economic policy uncertainty has a negative and significant effect and on the other hand, economic growth and exchange rate have positive and significant effects on tourism in developing countries. Therefore, in order to develop tourism, the country's economic policymakers are advised to: 1- Avoid their irregular and discretionary policies; 2- Make greater economic growth the goal of their decisions and spend national income on granting facilities, building and developing tourism infrastructure; 3- Avoid suppressing the exchange rate and leave the exchange rate determination to the market.
Original Article
International Economics
Rahman Saadat; Zabiullah Saadat; Majid Maddah
Abstract
AbstractThe emerging and developing countries of South Asia, including Afghanistan, receive significant amounts of international remittances annually. So sometimes, the inflow of remittances of these countries is estimated to be more than foreign direct investments FDI. The 4.6 million migrants from ...
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AbstractThe emerging and developing countries of South Asia, including Afghanistan, receive significant amounts of international remittances annually. So sometimes, the inflow of remittances of these countries is estimated to be more than foreign direct investments FDI. The 4.6 million migrants from Afghanistan in all over the world has provided a suitable potential capacity for inflow remittances to its country. From this point of view, it is necessary to study and analyze the economic effects of the remittance flow to Afghanistan. This article studies and evaluates the issue of Afghanistan's remittance and its effects on households’ economy. In this research, the field method was used and the data was collected by questionnaires. The findings show that about 36% of households in Afghanistan receive 1987$ on average remittances annually. Also, the estimates of the structural equation model based on partial least squares PLS-SEM indicate that remittances have a positive and significant effect on the income, consumption expenditures and savings of the households, thus the flow of remittances has positive consequences the economy of Afghanistan
Original Article
fariborz rajabipoor shirkoohi; mohammad doostar; Esmaeil Malekakhlagh; Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian
Abstract
Considering the increase in the importance of non-oil exports to compensate for the decrease in oil exports or the decrease in its price in the future and the resulting instability of foreign exchange earnings, it can cause problems in the economic development and development planning of the country. ...
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Considering the increase in the importance of non-oil exports to compensate for the decrease in oil exports or the decrease in its price in the future and the resulting instability of foreign exchange earnings, it can cause problems in the economic development and development planning of the country. The data provided by various researches in the field of non-oil exports of the country show that the incomes from the country's non-oil exports, like other economic variables, do not have a uniform trend over time and undergo large fluctuations.The presentation of non-oil export statistics shows that the country's non-oil export trend fluctuates between 1385 and 1401. The purpose of this research is to provide a model of sustainable development of non-oil exports based on the analysis of strategic Turning Points using the foundation data method, so that we can present the model of sustainability of non-oil exports of the country by identifying the various aspects of the development of non-oil products export from the perspective of analysis of Turning Points. The number of experts was 16 and all of them were university professors and managers who were selected in a purposeful manner of theoretical type and semi-structured interviews continued until the theoretical saturation of the data. After analyzing the data, the results show that the three political, economic and government factors are the main categories of the central phenomenon of the research (sustainable development of non-oil exports).
Original Article
Regional Urban Economy
Mohammad Reza Jokar; zahra dehghan shabani
Abstract
1- Introduction:The study examines the relationship between industrial diversity and manufacturing employment volatility in Iranian provinces. Regional employment volatility, characterized by significant fluctuations in employment levels, can lead to economic instability and high unemployment, as displaced ...
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1- Introduction:The study examines the relationship between industrial diversity and manufacturing employment volatility in Iranian provinces. Regional employment volatility, characterized by significant fluctuations in employment levels, can lead to economic instability and high unemployment, as displaced workers struggle to find new jobs. Understanding the factors that influence employment volatility is crucial for policymakers seeking to promote regional economic stability.2- MethodologyThis paper investigates the effect of industrial diversity on manufacturing employment volatility in 27 Iranian provinces from 2001 to 2019. The authors utilize a panel data model and the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique to account for the dynamic nature of employment volatility and address potential endogeneity issues.3- ResultsThe findings suggest that increased industrial diversity has a negative and statistically significant effect on manufacturing employment volatility in Iranian provinces. This indicates that a more diversified industrial base can help stabilize regional employment levels and mitigate the adverse impacts of economic shocks. The results have important policy implications, as they suggest that promoting industrial diversification could be an effective strategy for reducing employment volatility and enhancing the resilience of local labor markets in Iran.Additionally, the results show a U-shaped relationship between employment growth rates and employment volatility. The employment volatility in previous period, industrial structure change, and inflation volatility have a positive impact, while the size of factories and the ratio of employment in capital-intensive and knowledge-based industries have a negative impact on employment volatility.4- ConclusionThe study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the role of industrial diversity in shaping regional employment volatility, with a focus on the understudied context of Iranian provinces. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and regional development planners seeking to foster more stable and resilient local economies.
