تعیین اولویت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری صنعتی استان آذربایجان غربی با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP)

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• نسرین عثمانی ¹
• قاسم سامعی ²

¹ دانشگاه ازاد ارومیه

² ازاد ارومیه

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.v24i14.53164

چکیده

اتخاذ سیاست‌های توسعه صنعتی مناسب در مناطق مختلف کشور می‌تواند ضامن توسعه تجارت و گسترش بازارهای تجاری برای تولیدات صنعتی باشد. همچنین گسترش تولید و توسعه صادرات مستلزم افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در فعالیت‌های مختلف تولیدی به‌خصوص در بخش صنعت است. هدف این تحقیق، تعیین اولویت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری صنعتی استان آذربایجان غربی با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP) می‌باشد. این تحقیق از نظر هدف کاربردی و توسعه‌ای و بر اساس نحوه گردآوری اطلاعات و داده‌ها از نوع ترکیبی –توصیفی و آزمایشی- می‌باشد و از نظر روش اجرا نیز به شیوه پیمایشی است. این تحقیق در سال 1394 با هدف تعیین اولویت‌های سرمایه‌گذاری صنعتی استان آذربایجان غربی صورت پذیرفت. جامعه آماری تحقیق را کارشناسان تشکیل می‌دهند و روش نمونه‌گیری از خبرگان، نمونه‌گیری غیرتصادفی و در دسترس می‌باشد. در این تحقیق با بهره‌گیری از مدل تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی و روش تحلیل حساسیت تلاش شده است فعالیت‌های صنعتی استان آذربایجان غربی در راستای سرمایه‌گذاری صنعتی اولویت‌بندی شوند. نتایج نشان داد فعالیت‌های صنعتی استان آذربایجان غربی به ترتیب فعالیت‌های صنعتی تولید زغال کک پالایشگاه‌ها، تولید مواد و محصولات شیمیایی، تولید فلزات اساسی، تولید سایر محصولات کانی غیر فلزی و صنایع مواد غذایی و آشامیدنی اولویت‌های اول تا پنجم را در مقایسه با سایر فعالیت‌های صنعتی استان جهت سرمایه‌گذاری صنعتی استان به خود اختصاص داده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• سرمایه گذاری صنعتی
• مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی
• تحلیل حساسیت
• استان آذربایجان غربی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining Industrial Investment Priorities in West Azerbaijan Province Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

نویسندگان [English]

• nasrin osmani ¹
• ghasem sameei ²

¹ azad islamic unit oumia

² azad islamic unit oumia

چکیده [English]

Introduction
Considering the limited financial and investment resources governing the country's economy, the proper planning for the work of certain investments is one of the measures that must be taken by the countries’ economic authorities.
Theoretical frame work
Determination of priority activities in the province's industrial investment optimum return and optimal allocation of capital in the field of optimization of the establishment of industries is considered as an effective step (Javier, 2009). Capital is one of the main factors of commerce and the greatest means of gaining profit. Capital, in the broadest sense of the word, is the economic commodity that potentially or actually produces economic goods. Capital may be either legal cash (cash) or illegal (property, privilege, or practical) (Mahdavi, 2005, p. 22). Investment can be done inductively, externally, independently, and directly. For example, a household's investment in the securities of the company is a direct investment. Investments can be made in various fields (such as investment in the industrial, agricultural, housing and fixed assets sectors, and bourse, etc.). In other words, investment means a change in the volume of capital over a period, and investment is in fact the formation of capital (Rai & Talangi, 2004, p. 153). The border capacity in West Azerbaijan has created a space where joint industrial and mineral investment with neighboring countries is possible in this province. Besides, the geographic location of West Azerbaijan province and its border features with the three foreign countries can in fact provide the opportunities and benefits for the other provinces as well. Investors do not have to design, plan and take necessary measures, especially in the private sector, so in other similar points and therefore the priority of industries has a particular importance.
Methodology
This is an applied research based on the method of collecting information and data in a descriptive and experimental way through the survey method. The study population in this research can be defined at two levels. In order to identify the effective indicators in determining the priorities of industrial investment in West Azerbaijan and to exploit the importance and the interdependence of the indicators, experts and decision makers of investment affairs of the industry, mining, and trade organization of West Azerbaijan are taken into account. In this research, the following tools have been used to collect information.
A: Documents related to Industrial Activities Assessment Indicators (ISIC) at the Iranian Statistics Center.
B: Paired matrix questionnaires are based on a 9-point Likert scale in which the parity scale is between indices, sub-indices, and finally variables, these questionnaires are:
1- The maturity comparison matrix inventory of effective indicators in determining the priority of industrial investment.
2) Indicator grading questionnaire
The data were obtained from the comparison of the pair values as well as the statistical data of the indices of each of the industries by means of the hierarchical analysis of the model through the selection of Expert Choice software. According to the research goal, in the framework of the operation of determining the priorities of industrial investment in West Azerbaijan -by comparing the pair of determinants and influential indices in industrial investment, as well as the comparative comparison of industrial activities based on the two-digit ISIC code for each- the indicators are investigated using the Analytical Hierarchy Model and Expert Choice Software.

Results and Discussion

Conclusions and Suggestions
Finally, the data from the paired comparisons showed that the multi-index scale has affected the determination of the priorities of the commercial industry in West Azerbaijan with an acceptable rate of inconsistency (0.02). Labor productivity indices, compensation, indices yield share of the shares of the workshops for each activity from the whole factories, the manpower production index, the concentration of profit, the ratio of efficiency, the indicator of the ratio of trainee professionals from the total staff, the investment index, and the index of production of employees from the total staff with the highest and least importance in determining investment priorities Industrial are in West Azerbaijan province. After the formation of the matrix of paired comparisons, the effective indicators in determining the investment priorities of West Azerbaijan and determining the index gradient as well as calculation of indices by comparing the values of the pair of activities in terms of indicators, the last activities in order to determine the priorities of industrial investment West Azerbaijan province in the mode of synthesis of distribution based on all indicators is calculated individually and in general respectively industrial activity of refinery coke production, production of materials and chemical products, production of basic metals, production of other non-metallic minerals and materials industries Food and Drinking First to Fifth Priorities. Other industrial activities of the province in order to allocate industrial investment, industrial and furniture manufacturing, wood and wood products, furniture and artifacts production, printing and reproduction industries, and printing and reproduction of media and recycling of metals and metals non-metallic is the first priority in comparison with other industrial activities of the province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Industrial Investment
• Analytical Hierarchy Process
• sensitivity analysis
• Western Azerbaijan Province

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