نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد
3 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، ایران
4 دانشکده اقتصاد،مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Aim and Introduction: In the current era, where markets, as a pervasive phenomenon, have transcended economic borders and significantly increased international interactions, two key approaches, "economic integration" and "regionalism," have emerged as solutions to address challenges and leverage the opportunities of globalization. Economic integration is a process that, through the removal of trade barriers, harmonization of economic policies, and the creation of common markets, leads to the integration of national economies at the global level. This process, by increasing efficiency, specializing production, and accessing broader markets, brings significant benefits to participating countries. Therefore, developing and developed countries have taken steps to expand economic cooperation and regional integration to deepen and develop their economic and trade relations in order to achieve rapid economic growth. Also, reviewing previous studies shows that there are different ways that trade affects economic growth. One of these methods is to examine the impact of trade on economic growth through the level of production and economic growth of trading partner countries. In this view, the economic growth of trading partner countries is considered an important factor in long-term economic growth. External economic conditions affect economic growth in various ways. The most obvious of these methods is trade relations, in such a way that increasing the growth of trading partners increases their demand for imports and, as a result, increases the exports of the country of origin. Also, countries benefit from the transfer of technology and other productivity benefits of international trade. Foreign investment is another way in which external economic conditions affect economic growth. Since Afghanistan is geographically landlocked and dependent on its neighbors for trade, internal and external challenges, including drug production and prolonged wars, have affected the country's economy. Due to Afghanistan's strategic location, economic and regional cooperation is of particular importance. Also, Afghanistan, economically as a weak country, has always tried to pave its way for economic development by utilizing regional and international capacities. The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), as one of the most important supranational trade agreements in the region, was established with the aim of developing and strengthening trade relations between member countries, as a regional bloc, it has provided potential opportunities for the economic growth of member countries, including Afghanistan. Therefore, this research aims to identify and evaluate these spillover effects of economic and financial growth of ECO member countries and provide policy recommendations for maximizing the opportunities created and the rapid economic growth of Afghanistan. The main question is, how does the economic and financial growth of ECO member countries affect the economy of Afghanistan, and how can these effects be optimized? Answering this question can help Afghan policymakers make more informed decisions and more effective planning for sustainable economic development.
Methodology: In the present study, the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is used to investigate the effect of the growth of economic and financial variables on the economy of Afghanistan. In this research, the estimated model includes the member country of the Economic Cooperation Organization in the period (2000-2021) annually. Considering the number of observations, two models are estimated. The first model includes the variables of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and the second model includes the variables of Afghanistan, Turkey, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Since the purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the growth of economic and financial variables of ECO member countries on the economic and financial variables of Afghanistan, i represents the sections (gross domestic product, exports, and exchange rate), and the endogenous variables of the model are the member countries of the ECO.
Findings: The results of the research show that in the short term, the economic growth and financial developments of some member countries, such as Iran, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan, have a significant impact on the economy of Afghanistan. This impact is mainly transmitted through the trade channel, especially the import of capital and intermediate goods. The examination of impulse response functions shows that economic shocks from Iran and Turkmenistan have positive and lasting effects on the economy of Afghanistan, while shocks from Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan are accompanied by fluctuations and create relative instability. Also, the results of variance decomposition in the long term indicate that the growth of economic and financial variables of Iran, compared to other ECO member countries, has the largest share (13 percent) in explaining the growth of economic and financial variables of Afghanistan. In contrast, the economic and financial variables of Kazakhstan have the least impact in this regard.
Discussion and Conclusion: According to the findings of this research, which shows the importance of the economic and financial spillover of the countries of the Regional Cooperation Organization for Economic Cooperation, especially Iran, in the economic growth of Afghanistan, strengthening and developing trade relations between the two countries is of particular importance. Policies to eliminate or reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, especially for intermediate goods and industrial equipment, through the use of simple and transparent customs mechanisms, can make the flow of trade smoother and more efficient and reduce the costs of trade exchanges. Also, investing in improving Afghanistan's land and rail transport infrastructure, developing transit routes, and facilitating border affairs will help reduce transportation time and costs and provide better access to regional markets. Another thing is to facilitate the exchange of market information and financial services: creating digital platforms for accessing market information and developing financial and banking services related to foreign trade, including facilitating payments and international settlements, can reduce trade risks and increase the confidence of economic actors.
کلیدواژهها English
