نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

در این مطالعه کوشش می شود تا به مساله قدیمی انرژی و رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از روش های جدید اقتصادسنجی در بخش های مختلف اقتصاد ایران پرداخته شود. این مطالعه در چارچوب مدل تصحیح خطای پانل چند متغیره (PECM) و آزمون های هم انباشتگی و علیت پانل به بررسی رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت بین مصرف انرژی و رشد ارزش افزوده در بخش های مختلف اقتصادی کشور، با در نظر گرفتن قیمت انرژی طی دوره زمانی 1369 تا 1389 می پردازد. برآورد ضرایب بلندمدت با استفاده از روش های حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا (DOLS)و حداقل مربعات معمولی تعدیل شده کامل (FMOLS) و برآورد ضرایب کوتاه مدت و روابط علیت با استفاده از روش گروه میانگین ادغام شده (PMG) انجام شده است.نتایج بدست آمده بیانگر این است که افزایش (کاهش) مصرف انرژی در بخش های مختلف کشور منجر به افزایش (کاهش) رشد ارزش افزوده در آنها می شود، در نتیجه با توجه به این رابطه دو سویه ، فرضیه بازخورد در این تحقیق مورد تائید قرار می گیرد. تاثیر افزایش قیمت انرژی بر رشد اقتصادی بخش های مختلف در کوتاه مدت نیز منفی ولی در بلندمدت مثبت می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Energy consumption and value added growth in different sectors of Iran: Co integration and Multivariate Panel Error Correction approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • majid aghaei
  • Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh

University of Mazandaran

چکیده [English]

This paper surveys economic growth and energy consumption relationship by new econometric methods in different sectors of Iran. this study uses panel error correction model and panel co integration and causality tests to investigate short run and long run relationship between energy and value added growth in different sectors of Iran’s economy with regards to energy price in the time period of 1369 until 1389.Long run and short run coefficients estimation have done by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Pooled Mean Group respectively.
Results show that increasing (decreasing) of energy consumption in different sectors of Iran’s economy cause to increase (decrease) in value added growth, so we accept Feedback hypothesis in this study because of existence of bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in sectors of Iran economy. Energy price impact on economic growth in short run is negative but in long run is positive

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • panel Error Correction Model
  • Panel Co integration
  • Energy Consumption
  • Economic Growth
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