نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه یزد

2 یزد

چکیده

پیشنهاد اجرای مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده در ایران به دلیل ویژگی‌های مطلوب این مالیات در زمینه‌های کاهش اتّکا به درآمدهای نفتی، تشویق تولید و صادرات، بهبود کارایی نظام مالیاتی و... مورد توجه سیاست‌گذاران و محققان قرار گرفته است. در عین حال این موضوع نگرانی‌هایی از قبیل آثار توزیعی، تخصیصی و تورّمی داشته است. با توجه به اینکه مدت زیادی از اجرای قانون هدفمندی یارانه‌ها نمی‌گذرد، لازم است که اثرات این تحول اقتصادی بر اقتصاد کشور بررسی شود. ازاین‌رو مقاله حاضر به بررسی آثار تورمی مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده در استان‌های کشور طی سال‌های 1392-1387 با استفاده از رگرسیون چندمتغیره مبتنی بر داده‌های تابلویی پرداخته است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده بر تورم در استان‌های کشور است، در واقع علیرغم بحث‌های نظری انجام شده پیش از اجرای این قانون مبنی بر عدم اثرگذاری بر تورم، نتایج آزمون‌های اقتصادسنجی، نشان از آثار تورمی دارند. مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده همچنین متغیرهای نرخ بیکاری، اندازه جاری دولت و سرانه تولید داخلی بدون نفت بر تورم تأثیر مثبت دارند. از طرفی متغیرهای اندازه عمرانی دولت، نسبت سپرده به تولید و سرانه تولید داخلی نفت بر تورم استانی اثر منفی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of VAT on Inflation in Iran Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

  • Habib Ansari Samani 1
  • Razieh Davoodi 2

1 yazd University

2 Yazd University

چکیده [English]

Value Added Taxes, as a suitable substitute for all types of sales taxes, despite the benefits, lead to disadvantages such as the pressure on the general level of prices (Ikpe & Nteegah, 2013). As inflation has always been one of the most important problems in the Iranian economy, it was a concern that in a situation where the country faces a severe structural inflation and inflationary sanctions, will the implementation of the value added tax program increase inflation?
Taking into account the predictions made by the researchers and the executives of the project, we aim to study the issue. 7 years have passed since the VAT was implemented, therefore, it will be necessary to survey the effects of this tax. This paper will survey the inflationary effects of VAT in Iran provinces.
Theoretical Framework
Implementation of value added tax (VAT) from two direct and indirect channels affects the general level of prices. Since the value added tax is an indirect tax based on consumption, a portion of this tax burden is imposed on the final consumer. As a result, implementation of VAT, at least in the early stages, directly leads to a leap in the price of goods and services that are taxed.
Also, the implementation of the value added tax affects the general level of prices indirectly by affecting determining factors of inflation, such as liquidity, expectations and production costs. Experiences of different countries in controlling inflationary effects of VAT show that there are two issues in this regard. The first is which tax does VAT replace? (Which taxes have been eliminated) and the second is the country’s monetary situation (Tait, 1988). If the value added tax replaces one or more direct and indirect taxes, it does not impose a severe pressure on prices because the amount of tax received from the goods does not change much, and only the types of taxes and taxation methods change.
The study of other countries’ experiences shows that if inflation control is one of the main goals of monetary and credit policies and that the government in monetary and financial policies takes into account the issue of inflation, then the implementation of the VAT system along with the inflation controlling short-run policies can be made without a sharp increase in prices (Naderan & Ranjabarkey, 2008).
Methodology
In order to test the hypothesis that VAT has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Iran's provinces, we use provinces variables such as inflation, effective rate of VAT, unemployment rate, current and construction, local government size, oil and without oil production per capita, and the ratio of deposits to production from 2008 to 2013. The Econometric hypothesis testing method is a multivariate regression analysis with panel data.
Findings
The findings show that there is a positive and significant relationship between unemployment rate and provinces’ inflation, which shows the stagflation in Iran's economy Moreover, the current size of the government has a positive effect on inflation, since an increase in government spending will lead to an increase in the budget deficit, public sector debt will increase, and will lead to an increase in the supply of money. Given the positive relationship between the general level of prices and liquidity, raising the money supply will lead to an increase in the general level of prices. Whatever the state budget allocates to development expenditures and government development expenditures by improving production and strengthening the supply side will cause macroeconomic surpluses and will reduce inflation. Since VAT affects the sale price of final goods, it is likely that sellers will conceive of increasing production costs and transfer tax burden to consumers. On the other hand, some manufacturers of goods that are not subject to VAT imagine that the tax on their goods and services will also apply and increase the price of their goods. Therefore, the findings show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the value added tax and inflation in the provinces of the country. The high ratio of deposits to production in the in the ceteris paribus situation indicates that people prefer to hold liquidity in banks. This liquidity will be driven by investment in the supply of various sectors of the economy and will reduce inflation. An increase in domestic production of oil will lead to an increase in the supply of foreign currency and, subsequently, a decline in the exchange rate. Due to the negative relationship between the exchange rate and the rate of inflation, the exchange rate cuts have led to an increase in inflation, and the negative relationship between oil production and inflation is justified. Also, the findings show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the oil-free domestic production and inflation in different provinces.
Conclusions and Suggestions
In this study, the inflationary effects of VAT were investigated using multivariate regression in panel data. For this purpose, after collecting provincial data, the inflation effect of VAT in a model with dependent variable of price level growth rate along with the major variables affecting inflation was measured. Given the positive impact of VAT on inflation, it is recommended that the government initially takes caution in increasing the VAT rate, and secondly, pay closer attention to direct taxes and alternative VAT taxes that have high incomes and low inflationary effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Value Added tax
  • Iran Provinces
  • Inflation
  • Panel Data
[1] Arshadi, ali; najafizadeh, seyd abass & mahdavi, Mehran. (2011). The impact of vat on prices in Iran. Journal to research and economic policies, the nineteenth year, No. 58, pp. 158-127. (In persian).
[2] Aqaei, allah Mohammad & Komijani, akbar. (2001). Theoretical vat tax system reform in the direction of the economy, p. 146. (In persian).
[3] Azizkhani, Fatemeh. (2005). VAT Report: advantages, disadvantages and economic effects. Office of Economic Studies of Parliament Research Center. (In persian).
[4] Economic Affairs Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. (2014). an overview of the VAT system (concepts, scope, advantages and disadvantages). reports, research and financial policies in September. (In persian).
[5] Farabi, Hiro. (2011). vat and its effects: the experience of countries and implementation in Iran, the economic journal - monthly issues and economic policies. No. 3 and 4, pp. 63-90. (In persian).
[6] Farman, Maryam. (2011). Effect of vat on inflation in Iran. Master's thesis, Payam Noor University of Tehran, Faculty of Humanities. (In persian).
[7] Gazerani farahani, Nasrin. (2011). The relationship between the vat and qualitative characteristics of accounting information. Master's thesis, Arak Azad University, School of Management, Department of Accounting. (In persian).
[8] Hosseini, Seyed Safdar & shokohi, Maryam. (2015). Assessment of factors affecting inflation expectations, emphasizing the role of retrospective and prospective, Journal of Economic researches (sustainable development). Vol. XV, No. 1, pp. 228-209. (In persian).
[9] Khani qareah gapi, Nooshin; Bahram, Sahabi; Azizi, Firoozeh & Sbagh Kermani, Majid. (2013). Identifying the causes of stagflation in Iran: Threshold Error Correction Method, Journal of Economic Modeling, Vol. 7, No. 4 (24). Page 35. (In persian).
[10] Molod, Ahmad. (2007). Factors affecting inflation in the economy. Political and economic information Journal, No. 243. (In persian).
[11] Naderan, Elias. (2001). VAT, methods and work. Economic Research, first year, No.1. (In persian).
[12] Naderan, Elias & Ranjbarky, Ali. (2008). The impact of VAT and facilitate the implementation of which has been successfully in Iran. House and Research Journal, No. 56. (In persian).
[13] Nabizadeh valocolai, Hassan. (2014). Examining the interaction between inflation and the VAT on the Iranian economy. Economic Journal, No. 5, pp. 85-116. (In persian).
[14] Naqvi, Somayeh & Shahnoushi, Naser. (2015). Use the map Ali Bayesian risk factors on inflation in the economy. Economic Research, No. 110, pp. 217-252. (In persian).
[15] Pajoyan, Jamshid & Varshosaz, Behnaz. (2013). The effect of the VAT in MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa). Journal of taxes, No. 66, pp. 7-30. (In persian).
[16] Rahmani, Timor. (2001). Macroeconomic, publisher Tehran: Brothers. (In persian).
[17] Rozbeh, Firooz; Khazdooz, Bijan; Soltan-Panah, Hiroush; Hosni, Kaveh & Tahrkhvyyany, Kayvan. (2014). Assessing the Effects of VAT on inflation in Iran's economy in 89 quarterly economic researches (sustainable development). No. 3, pp. 93-119. (In persian).
[18] Sadeqi, Kamal; Shybayy, amineh & Feshari, Majid. (2010). Factors affecting inflation with an emphasis on the size of government.Quarterly economic modeling,Vol 4, No. 1. (In persian).
[19] Sadeqi, Mehdi & Fadaii Khorasgani, Mehdi. (2002). VAT inflationary effects on different sectors of the Iranian economy", Journal of Economic preceding studies, (4). (In persian).
[20] Soheili, Kiomarth; Mojtaba. Almasi & Saqaei, Maryam. (2012). Assess the impact of expected inflation, growth, liquidity, imported inflation, output gap and the exchange rate on the inflation rate in Iran, Journal of Economics, Journal of Macroeconomics, No (13). (In persian).
[21] Soleimani, Alireza. (2013). VAT and the challenges facing it, a master's thesis, PNU Alborz, Faculty of Management and Economics. (In persian).
[22] Sufi Mjydpor, Masoud. (2003). VAT: advantages, disadvantages and economic impact on the VAT bill, House of the Office of Economic Studies Research Center. (In persian).
[23] Taiebnia, Ali. (1995). Theories inflation at the inflation process in Iran. Tehran University Jihad Publishing, Printing. (In persian).
[24] Tahmasebi Boldaji, Fariborz; Amir-Afzali & Bostani, Reza. (2004). Approach to VAT and its implementation in Iran, the VAT Office, Tehran. (In persian).
[25] Taiebnia, Ali; Taqi Mollaei, Saeid. (2010). Money and Inflation in Iran VAR approach (VAR). Program and Budget. Volume 15, Number 110. (In persian).
[26] Tehrani, Reza; piri, parviz & Gorany, Poua. (2014). Feasibility of Using Composite (CANSLIM) in Tehran Stock Exchange using econometric models, Journal of Financial Analysis Securities. No. 21. (In persian).
[27] Ziaee Bigdelli, Mohammad Taqi. (2004). Status of the VAT tax reform in Iran. Tax Special Edition, Journal of the House of Assembly researches and Research Center, No. 45, p. 78. (In persian).
[28] Aizenman, J. & Jinjarak, Y. (2005). The collection efficiency of the value added tax: theory and international evidence, Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, UC Santa Cruz.
[29] Bernanke, B. S. (2003). A Perspective on Inflation Targeting; speech delivered at the Annual Washington Policy Conference of the National Association of Business Economists, Washington, D.C. March 25.
[30] Ebeke, C. & Ehrhart, H. (2011). Does VAT reduce the instability of tax revenues? Etudes et Documents. Clermont: CERDI. Available at.
[31] Fisher, I. (1920). The Purchasin Power of Money. New York: Macmillan.
[32] Gautier, E., & Lalliard, A. (2014). How do VAT changes affect inflation in France? Banque de France Quarterly Selection of Articles, 32.
[33] Ghiasvand, A., & Movagharisadat, M. R. (2011). tax revenue estimation resulting frome value added tax implementation law in iran.
[34] Giesecke, J. A. & Hoang N. T. (2010). Modeling value-added tax in the presence of multi-production and differentiated exemptions, Journal of Asian Economics, vol. 21(2). pages 156-173.
[35] Ikpe, M. & Nteegah, A. (2013). Value Added Tax and price stability in Nigeria: A partial equilibrium analysis. European Journal of Government and Economics, 2(2). 137-147.
[36] Johnson, H. (1978). Selected essays In Monetary Economics (First ed). London: George Allen Unwin.
[37] Konstantins Benkovskis and Ludmila Fadejeva. (2014). The effect of VAT rate on inflation in Latvia: evidence from CPI microdata,2014, Applied economics.Vol. 46.2014, 19/21, p. 2520-2533
[38] Lin , s. ( 2007 ). chinas value – added tax reform, capital accumulation , and welfare implications, chine economic review, pp 197-214
[39] Michael Keen, and Ben Lockwood. (2009). The value added tax:Its causes and consequences. Journal of Development Economics, 92 (2010) 138-151.
[40] Oladipupo, A. O., & Izedonmi, F. P. (2013). Public Perception and Attitude towards Value Added Tax (VAT) in Nigeria. iBusiness, 5(04). 126.
[41] Olaoye Clement Olatunj . (2013). Value Added Tax (VAT) and Inflation in Nigeria (1990 to 2003). Asian Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences (AJHSS) ,Vol 1. Issue 1, 2320-9720.
[42] Struther, J. (1978). Inflation In Chana (1966-78): A Perspective On The Monetarist Vs Structuralist Debate. Development and Change. 12 (2). 178.
[43] Sunkel, O. (1960). Inflation In Chile: An Unorthodox Approach. International Economic papers. 10.
CAPTCHA Image