نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش های بازرگانی

2 علامه طباطبایی

چکیده

در این مقاله یک مدل جاذبه با استفاده از داده­های تلفیقی سال­های 2019-2009 برای کشورهای گروه CIS به تفکیک گروه­های HS68 (محصولات سرامیک، شیشه و مصنوعات از شیشه)، HS69 (محصولات سرامیکی) و HS70 (شیشه و مصنوعات شیشه­ای) برآورد شده است. تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات مرتبط با کشورهای طرف تجاری نشان داد که برگترین شریک تجاری ایران در گروه کالایی HS68 کشورهای قزاقستان، آذربایجان و روسیه و در گروه کالایی  HS69 و  HS70 کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان، قزاقستان و روسیه می­باشند.
 نتایج برآورد مدل جاذبه نشان داد که قدرت توضیح­دهندگی مدل برای هر سه گروه کالایی با استفاده از روش­های حداقل مربعات معمولی، اثرات ثابت و اثرات تصادفی بالا بوده و تجارت گروه کالای HS68 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان باکشش، تجارت گروه کالایی HS69 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان به ترتیب بی کشش و باکشش و تجارت گروه کالایی HS70 با توجه به تولید ناخالص داخلی صادرکنندگان و واردکنندگان بی­کشش و با کشش بوده است و متغیرهای اندازه و ابعاد اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت و معنی­دار و عدم توازن تجاری و مسافت تاثیر منفی و معنی­داری بر جریان تجاری کشورهای گروه CIS داشته­اند. همچنین براساس نتایج برآورد پتانسیل تجاری به روش جاذبه در سال­های مورد بررسی ایران در تجارت کالای HS68 با کشورهای قزاقستان، آذربایجان و روسیه و در تجارت کالای  HS69و HS70 با کشورهای آذربایجان، ارمنستان و قزاقستان از پتانسیل خود بطورکامل استفاده نکرده و بیشترین ظرفیت بلااستفاده را دارد

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the trade potential of ceramic and glass products in Iran and CIS (Based on the gravity model)

نویسندگان [English]

  • amirreza soori 1
  • mehdi mohrami 2

2 allameh tabatabai

چکیده [English]

To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.
 To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.
To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.
To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.
To Estimate the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flows was formulated and estimated with panel data from 2009 to 2019 for each of the commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glass and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) as well as HS70 (glass and glass products). The parameters were estimated with a large database using ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects methods. For the three commodity groups, the results were stable across methods. For HS68, exports were elastic with respect to the gross domestic product (GDP) of exporters and importers GDP. For HS69, exports were inelastic with respect to the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to importers GDP. Exports of HS70 were inelastic with the exporters GDP and elastic with respect to the importers. Results show that geographical distance and trade imbalance is negative and significant; trade increases if thetransportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gravity model
  • Ceramic and Glass products
  • CIS
  • Commercial potential
  • international trade