نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، موسسه عالی آموزش پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی
2 استادیار گروه پژوهشی اقتصاد جمعیت و سرمایه انسانی، مؤسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور.
3 پژوهشگر اقتصاد
چکیده
بخش ساختمان به‌دلیل نقش ویژه‌ای که در اقتصاد شهری ایفا می‌کند، از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است و از سوی دیگر تکانه‌های ارزی در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت، تعیین‌کننده نوسانات عمده اقتصادی هستند. از این رو، در این پژوهش به مقایسه اثر تکانه ارزی بر فعالیت‌های بخش ساختمان در کلان‌شهرهای مشهد و تهران پرداخته می‌شود. به علت تعدد متغیرهای موجود در بخش ساختمان و به منظور استفاده از اطلاعات موجود در این متغیرها، الگوی FAVAR جایگزین الگوی VAR شده است چرا که الگوی VAR با افزایش متغیرها با مشکل درجه آزادی مواجه می‌شود. یافته‌های این تحقیق که بر مبنای تحلیل اطلاعات فصلی سال‌های ۱۳۷۰ تا ۱۳۹۷ برای متغیرهای بخش ساختمان و اقتصاد کلان در قالب الگوی FAVAR انجام گرفته است، نشان می‌دهد که بروز تکانه ارزی منجر به عکس‌العمل‌های مشابهی از منظر جهت تغییرات در متغیرها شده است، اگر چه که مقدار این عکس‌العمل‌ها متفاوت هستند. همچنین نتایج مقایسه این دو کلان‌شهر نشان می‌دهد که با بروز تکانه ارزی سرمایه‌گذاران در شهر مشهد به سمت واحدهای بزرگ‌تر و در شهر تهران گرایش به واحدهایی با متراژ پایین‌تر پیدا می‌کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Comparing the Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Activities of Housing Sector in Cities of Tehran and Mashhad
نویسندگان [English]
- Saeid Darab 1
- Malihe Hadadmoghadam 2
- Pedram Davody 3
1 - Ph.D. candidate, Institute of Management Studies and Management (IMPS)
2 Assistant professor, National Institute for Population Research (NIPR), IRAN.
3 Economic Researcher
چکیده [English]
On one side, the housing sector has played a crucial role in the urban economy. On the other side, exchange shocks are the principal source of economic cycles in oil-exporting countries. Hence, the effect of exchange rate shocks on activities of the housing sector for cities of Tehran and Mashhad has been considered in this study. This essay has substituted Factor-Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) for Vector Auto Regression (VAR) because of the degree of freedom problem in VAR models. FAVAR is suggested for solving the limited information problem in VAR models and more variables can be used in these models. Our results are based on quarterly data during the 1991- 2018 period for the housing sector and macroeconomics variables. The impulse-response figures indicate by exchange rate shock, most of the variables’ reactions have the same direction but different amounts. In both Mashhad and Tehran cities, land price grows more rapidly in the short run in cpmparison to the long run –as a consequence of inflation manifestations- and after passing some periods this growth will be decreased and adjusted. It is noteworthy that the growth of land price and apartment price in Tehran is roughly two times of this variable in Mashhad indicating the worse situation of Tehran’s housing market after the exchang shocks and inflationary situations. When it comes to the apartment price, the growth of this variable is less when it is compared to land price in these cities after the exchange shock. This phenomenon is rooted in inherent scarcity of land in metropolices.
In relation to number of finished building and the floor area of finished buildings, there is a huge differece in these cities. While the number of finished buildings in Mashhad city remaind roughly unchanged in the long run, the amount of floor area for these buildings has decreased. This result shows that investors in this city has a significant propensity to bigger apartments. It stemmed from increasingly huge constructin costs and cheaper land prcice in rural and new areas of Mashhad. Tehran witnesses an adverse situation in this regard. The growth of number of finished buildings is more than the growth of their floor area and shows that the investors will to invest on smaller apartments in Tehran. This outcome can be rooted in the decreasingly purchasing power of cosumers in this city. Hence, outcomes elaborated that investors are willing to build bigger apartments in Mashhad city and smaller apartments in Tehran.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Housing Sector
- FAVAR Model
- Exchange Rate Shocks
- Mashhad Metropolis
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