نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهوازT اهواز، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

چکیده

حضور آگاهانه در بازار جهانی بدون تدوین سیاست‌های مناسب بازرگانی و البته بدون لحاظ مسایل سیاسی و اجتماعی برای بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه از جمله ایران، غیر ممکن است. بر همین اساس در این تحقیق کوشیده شده است تا با توجه به تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، جایگاه صادراتی ایران در دو بازار منتخب دارو و فولاد به وسیله شاخصی به نام سهم بازار پایدار (CMS) در دوره زمانی 2019-2016 ارزیابی شود. برای این منظور با بهره‌گیری از مدل راگمن و استفاده از روش CMS توسعه‌یافته توسط لیمر و استرن، به ارزیابی عملکرد و رقابت‌پذیری ایران پرداخته شد. با توجه به این‌که اثر کالایی، اثر کشوری و اثر رقابتی زیر مجموعه‌های این شاخص هستند، در این تحقیق، ابتدا سه شاخص مذکور برای دو کالای منتخب محاسبه شده و سپس با استفاده از آن‌ها، تغییر در خالص صادرات کشور ارزیابی شده است. نتایج این پژوهش دلالت بر آن دارد که اثر رقابتی نسبت به دو اثر دیگر سهم چشمگیری در رشد صادرات دارو و فولاد داشته و لذا تحریم‌های اقتصادی که بیشترین تاثیر را بر رقابت‌پذیری کشورها در تجارت می‌گذارد؛ نقش پررنگی بر صادرات ایران حتی با وجود عدم تحریم کالای دارو داشته است. همچنین در کنار اثر کالایی که نتایج آن خارج از اراده کشور است نتایج حاصل از اثر کشوری بیان می‌کنند که در سال 2016، کشور آلمان و در سال‌های 2017 و 2019 کشور روسیه بهترین بازار هدف دارو و همچنین ترکیه بدترین و تایلند بهترین مقصد صادراتی فولاد ایران بوده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Iran Export Position Analysis Based on Rugman model and Stable Market Share Index (CMS): A Case Study of Medicine and Steel Industry

نویسندگان [English]

  • ebrahim anvari 1
  • ahmad salahmanesh 2
  • atfe ahmadi 3
  • soror chehrazi 3

1 Associate Professor of Economics at Shahid chamran University of ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics at Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

3 PHD student of economics at Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz

چکیده [English]

A conscious presence in the world market is impossible for many developing countries, including Iran, without formulating appropriate trade policies and, without considering political and social issues. Accordingly, in this study due to international sanctions, Iran's export position in two selected markets of medicine and steel has been evaluated by an indicator called Stable Market Share (CMS) in the period of 2016-2019. For this purpose, using Rugman model and CMS method developed by Limer and Stern, Iran's performance and competitiveness were evaluated. Considering that commodity effect, national effect and competitive effect are subsets of this index, in this research, first the three mentioned indices are calculated for two selected goods and then the change in the country's net exports is evaluated by using them. The results of this study indicate that the competitive effect on the growth of drug and steel exports has a significant share compared to the other two effects and therefore economic sanctions have played a significant role on Iran's exports even despite the lack of sanctions on drugs. Also next to the commodity effect whose results are outside the will of the country, the results of the national effect show that in 2016, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia were the best target market for drugs, as well as Turkey was the worst and Thailand was the best export destination for Iranian steel.
A conscious presence in the world market is impossible for many developing countries, including Iran, without formulating appropriate trade policies and, without considering political and social issues. Accordingly, in this study due to international sanctions, Iran's export position in two selected markets of medicine and steel has been evaluated by an indicator called Stable Market Share (CMS) in the period of 2016-2019. For this purpose, using Rugman model and CMS method developed by Limer and Stern, Iran's performance and competitiveness were evaluated. Considering that commodity effect, national effect and competitive effect are subsets of this index, in this research, first the three mentioned indices are calculated for two selected goods and then the change in the country's net exports is evaluated by using them. The results of this study indicate that the competitive effect on the growth of drug and steel exports has a significant share compared to the other two effects and therefore economic sanctions have played a significant role on Iran's exports even despite the lack of sanctions on drugs. Also next to the commodity effect whose results are outside the will of the country, the results of the national effect show that in 2016, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia were the best target market for drugs, as well as Turkey was the worst and Thailand was the best export destination for Iranian steel.
A conscious presence in the world market is impossible for many developing countries, including Iran, without formulating appropriate trade policies and, without considering political and social issues. Accordingly, in this study due to international sanctions, Iran's export position in two selected markets of medicine and steel has been evaluated by an indicator called Stable Market Share (CMS) in the period of 2016-2019. For this purpose, using Rugman model and CMS method developed by Limer and Stern, Iran's performance and competitiveness were evaluated. Considering that commodity effect, national effect and competitive effect are subsets of this index, in this research, first the three mentioned indices are calculated for two selected goods and then the change in the country's net exports is evaluated by using them. The results of this study indicate that the competitive effect on the growth of drug and steel exports has a significant share compared to the other two effects and therefore economic sanctions have played a significant role on Iran's exports even despite the lack of sanctions on drugs. Also next to the commodity effect whose results are outside the will of the country, the results of the national effect show that in 2016, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia were the best target market for drugs, as well as Turkey was the worst and Thailand was the best export destination for Iranian steel.
A conscious presence in the world market is impossible for many developing countries, including Iran, without formulating appropriate trade policies and, without considering political and social issues. Accordingly, in this study due to international sanctions, Iran's export position in two selected markets of medicine and steel has been evaluated by an indicator called Stable Market Share (CMS) in the period of 2016-2019. For this purpose, using Rugman model and CMS method developed by Limer and Stern, Iran's performance and competitiveness were evaluated. Considering that commodity effect, national effect and competitive effect are subsets of this index, in this research, first the three mentioned indices are calculated for two selected goods and then the change in the country's net exports is evaluated by using them. The results of this study indicate that the competitive effect on the growth of drug and steel exports has a significant share compared to the other two effects and therefore economic sanctions have played a significant role on Iran's exports even despite the lack of sanctions on drugs. Also next to the commodity effect whose results are outside the will of the country, the results of the national effect show that in 2016, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia were the best target market for drugs, as well as Turkey was the worst and Thailand was the best export destination for Iranian steel.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Competitiveness
  • Sustainable market share
  • Medicine
  • Steel
CAPTCHA Image