مناطق روستایی، به ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه برای مقابله با تاثیر مستقیم و غیرمستقیم این بحران، آمادگی کمتری دارند. لذا هدف این پژوهش ارزیابی اثرات ویروس کرونا بر شاخص های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی در شهرستان زاهدان است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش انجام کار توصیفی- تحلیلی است که به دو روش مطالعه کتابخانهای و پیمایشی میدانی انجام می پذیرد. جامعه آماری تحقیق را خانوارهای روستایی شهرستان زاهدان تشکیل میدهد که با توجه به پراکندکی روستاها و تعداد زیاد آنها تعداد 20 روستا به صورت تصادفی به عنوان روستای نمونه انتخاب شدند که بر طبق سرشماری سال 1395، این روستاها جمعا 4456 خانوار برابر با 18365 تن جمعیت داشته است که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 354 تن به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل یافته ها از آزمون تحلیل رگرسیون چندمتغیره و آزمون تی تک نمونهای استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که شاخص های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی با میانگین 773/2 پایینتر از وضعیت مطلوب ارزیابی شدهاند. بررسی اثرات همه گیری ویروس کرونا بر شاخص ها و متغیر های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی نشان داد که همه گیری ویروس کرونا بیشترین تاثیر را با ضریب بتای 398/0- بر فضای کسب و کار و کمترین تاثیر را با ضریب بتای 147/0 بر متغیر مهاجرت دارد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Analysis of the effect of effective economic indicators of the coronavirus epidemic (Case study: rural areas of Zahedan city)
The prevalence of this disease can have wide-ranging effects at the national, regional and local levels (Reardon, 2020). A report by UNICEF states that the virus is so small that it cannot be seen with the naked eye. Covid 19 pandemic today has more than 270 million confirmed cases and about 5.3 million million deaths from December 2019 to December 2021 worldwide, this figure in our country is 6 million cases and about 130 thousand deaths. Has been reported. Which has sparked fears of a global economic crisis and recession around the world. (Sonnichsen, 2020)
According to available statistics and documents, about 255 million job opportunities with the nature of continuous work have been overshadowed by the negative effects of the Corona virus. This is four times more than the number of people who lost their lives in the global financial crisis of 2009. It seems that 114 million people in this unprecedented global unemployment are facing an unemployment crisis. (Anderson, 2020) About 71% of people who have lost their jobs do not have much opportunity to get a good job. Restrictions imposed by governments do not provide much opportunity for job seekers (Bovino, 2020).
Also, quarantine and social distancing schemes and travel and travel restrictions have reduced the labor force in all economic sectors and caused serious damage or the loss of many jobs and the closure of educational services and schools, the need for goods and products. Production has declined and the need for medical staff and medical equipment has increased significantly, including in other economic sectors such as the oil and petrochemical industries, the food and agriculture industries, and the tourism and aviation industries (Argus Media , 2020).
Compulsory quarantine can have consequences that are directly related to the livelihood and economy of households by keeping more people in the family bed, especially men who bear the economic burden of the family. The villages of Zahedan city with many problems such as drought, poor health, weak infrastructure, problems caused by the corona epidemic, weakness in the health system and other cases have caused the corona to impose an additional burden on the economic burden of households. Considering that the lack of control of the disease and its prevalence and new strains can have many consequences for the economy, especially the rural economy on rural households in Zahedan city and suffer significant negative effects, it is appropriate to address this issue in this study. . Therefore, this study seeks to answer the question of what are the effects of coronary heart disease on the economic structure of rural households?
This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature and method of descriptive-analytical work, which is done in two ways: library study and field survey. In the descriptive study section, the library method has the main application because the theoretical foundations of research and aristocracy on the subject of research are available and documented only by reviewing existing studies and researches. The statistical population of the study consists of rural households in Zahedan city. Due to the dispersion of villages and their large number, 20 villages were randomly selected as the sample village. According to the 2016 census, these villages have a total of 4456 households equal to It had a population of 18,365, of which 354 were selected using the Cochran's formula. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect research data, the face validity of which was confirmed by professors and experts related to the relevant rural economy.
Rural spaces have always been emphasized by planners because they accommodate a significant part of the population (Rezvani, 2010). Rural economy is considered as an economic foundation due to providing food security and essential goods of a country. Therefore, any hesitation in this type of economy can have many consequences on other economic dimensions. The outbreak of coronavirus has had various effects on the world economy, especially the rural economy. Given the prevalence of this disease in Iran, the purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the effects of corona on economic indicators on the lives of villagers. The present research is a descriptive survey in terms of purpose, application and type of research method.
The study of economic indicators in the studied villages showed that all five indicators of production prosperity, business environment, investment, rural debt and migration were assessed at an unfavorable level. In the study of the effects of coronavirus epidemic on economic indicators of rural households in Zahedan city, the results showed that the coronavirus epidemic has the greatest impact on the variable of business environment and the least impact on the migration variable. The coronavirus epidemic also affects the boom in production and investment.
One of the studied variables is the increase of villagers' debt. Increasing the debt of the villagers is one of the problems that starts to move with the closure of classes and businesses. Therefore, the government should prevent the increase of villagers' debts by providing appropriate solutions. In Lithuania, for example, the government provides assistance to those in need of quarantine and public closures through a coordination center. In this regard, it is possible to support the people in rural areas through programs such as interest-free loans and participation in their repayment.
Another suggestion is to improve the digital and accessible infrastructure. It is recommended that by strengthening the digital sector and related infrastructure, the economic trend be turned into telecommuting so that people can be able to provide income for themselves using this technology (OECD, 2019). Of course, it should be noted that the gap between city and village in digital infrastructure was very obvious and abundant. For example, while 85% of urban households have access to 30 MB / s of bandwidth, in rural areas only 56% of households have access to it, which is much lower in the study area.