اثر سرمایه گذاری در بخش مسکن بر رشد اقتصادی استان های ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• زانا مظفری ¹
• حسن فرازمند ²
• زهرا امیدی ³

¹ استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج.

² استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

³ دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.2022.76145.1109

چکیده

چکیده
سرمایه­گذاری در مسکن یکی از معمول‌ترین روش‌های سرمایه­گذاری در ایران است. بخش مسکن و ساختمان دارای ارتباط گسترده با سایر بخش­های اقتصادی است و مسکن سالانه حجم وسیعی از نقدینگی کشور را به خود جذب می­کند، به همین دلیل سرمایه­گذاری در این بخش از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار بوده و می­تواند در روند رشد و توسعه کشور سهم به­سزایی داشته باشد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته اثر سرمایه­گذاری در بخش مسکن بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های ایران طی دوره زمانی 1398-1385 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان داد که سرمایه­گذاری در مسکن تأثیر مثبت و معنی­داری بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های ایران دارد. همچنین سایر نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که وقفه متغیر رشد اقتصادی تأثیر مثبت و معنی­دار بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های ایران دارد. متغیرهای سرمایه انسانی، سرمایه فیزیکی و شاخص صنعتی شدن تأثیر مثبت و معنی­دار و متغیرهای اندازه دولت و شهرنشینی اثر منفی و معنی­دار بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های ایران دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• رشد اقتصادی
• سرمایه‌گذاری در مسکن
• استان های ایران
• گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Housing Investment on the Economic Growth in Iranian Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

• zana mozaffari ¹
• hassan farazmand ²
• zahra omidi ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.

² Professor, Faculty of Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

³ PhD in Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

چکیده [English]

 
1- INTRODUCTION
Economic growth is one of the goals that every economy pursues, and the reason for this is the achievement of many benefits and advantages that are realized in the process of growth. Policy makers in every country seek to achieve a higher growth rate in their country.
Among the types of assets, housing is considered one of the most important socio-economic components in a country. It is also argued that in the new theories, the development of the housing sector is one of the drivers of economic growth, so in this article, the impact of investment in housing on the economic growth of Iran's provinces during the years 2006-2019 has been examined.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
According to the point of view of macroeconomics, considering that between 21 and 24% of the country's GDP is related to the housing sector (during the construction and operation period), the housing sector is considered as the driving engine of economic growth and the factor that strengthens it in the country. From the point of view of consumption and investment, housing also plays a significant role in national accounts.
In general, there are three different views on the relationship between investment in real estate and economic growth. The first point of view emphasizes that investment in real estate affects economic growth. The second point of view shows that economic growth affects investment in real estate. According to the third perspective, there is a mutual causal relationship between investment in real estate and economic growth.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
To estimate the research model, the econometric method of generalized moments of GMM has been used. The important feature of this estimation method is that there is no need to know the exact distribution of disturbance sentences. The main assumption of this method is based on the fact that disturbance terms are not correlated with instrumental variables. The method of generalized moments, by choosing the correct instrumental variable, by applying a weight matrix, can create a compatibility estimator for the conditions of heterogeneity and unknown autocorrelations.
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results show that the economic growth coefficient of the previous period was evaluated as 0.73. Based on the probability level corresponding to the t-statistic of this coefficient, it can be stated that the economic growth of the previous period had a positive and significant effect on the economic growth in the provinces of Iran. This result is consistent with economic theories and most previous studies such as Kazerooni et al (2018) and Mozaffari (2021). The variable coefficient of human capital has been evaluated as 0.16 and according to the probability level corresponding to its t-statistic, it can be stated that human capital has had a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of Iran's provinces. This result is in line with endogenous growth theories and previous empirical studies such as Kazerooni et al (2018) and Mozaffari (2021).
The size of the government also has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. So that the elasticity of the economic growth of Iran's provinces in relation to the government's current expenses is equal to -0.32.
The urbanization variable has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of Iran's provinces. The negative sign of the variable coefficient of urbanization can be caused by the fact that the rate of urbanization has increased regardless of the process of providing the necessary infrastructure in the cities and increasing the expertise of the migrant workforce.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Investment in housing has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of Iran's provinces during the research period. Which is compatible with the growth models and is in line with the studies conducted in the field of the effect of investment in real estate on economic growth, it is recommended that the government, in addition to paying special attention to capital expenditures in the field of housing; It has provided the necessary incentives and conditions for the investment of the private sector in the field of housing, so that the investment in this sector has increased, which on the one hand has increased the welfare and economic growth of the society, and on the other hand, it can reduce the lack of housing supply in this way, the Iranian market can be partially compensated. The effect of capital stock on the economic growth of Iran's provinces also has been positive and significant, which is in line with the existing theory in this field and previous studies, it is recommended that the government provide a mechanism and in the budgeting of the provinces. The discussion of the number of credits for the acquisition of capital assets should be given special attention in order to improve the economic growth of different regions of the country. Human capital and industrialization index have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of Iran's provinces. Aggregation of industrial activities leads to growth by creating savings resulting from local aggregation. The effect of urbanization on the economic growth of Iran's provinces was negative and significant. Although the previous theory and studies show a positive and significant effect of urbanization rate on economic growth. Governments should pay attention to prevent the increase in the size of the government, because based on the results of this research, the economic growth has decreased with the increase in the size of the government, and the large involvement of the government in the economy can have negative consequences. This result is consistent with the results of most previous studies in developing countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Economic growth
• Housing investment
• Iranian Provinces
• GMM

مراجع

References

Aghaei, M; Rezaghilizadeh, M & Bagheri, F. (2013). The effect of human capital on economic growth in the provinces of Iran. Research and Planning in Higher Education, 9 (1): 21-44. (in persian)

Amiri, N. (2011). A Look at the Relationship between Housing Investments and Economic Growth, Economic Journal of the Review of Economic Issues and Policies, 5 (6): 84-79. (in persian)

Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.

Arouri, M. E. H., Youssef, A. B., Nguyen-Viet, C., and Soucat, A. (2014). “Effects of Urbanization on Economic Growth and Human Capital Formation in Africa”. PGDA Working Paper No. 119

Arthur, W. B. (1994). Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy. University of michigan Press.

Asadpour, A. (2019). The Effects of Uncertainty in Inflation and Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 10(37), 125-136. (in persian)

Azimi, Michael. (2014). Regional Concentration and Macroeconomic Growth in Iran (2000-2009), Journal of economics and Regional Development, 20 (7): 29-2. (in persian)

Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.

Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (1996). International measures of schooling years and schooling quality. The American Economic Review, 86(2), 218-223.

Bond, S. R. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese economic journal, 1(2), 141-162.

Cecchetti, S. G., & Kharroubi, E. (2019). Why does credit growth crowd out real economic growth?. The Manchester School, 87, 1-28.‏

Chen, J., & Zhu, A. (2008). The relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China: A panel analysis using quarterly provincial data (No. 2008: 17). Working Paper, Department of Economics, Uppsala University.

Chen, Y., He, M., & Rudkin, S. (2017). Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective. Economic Modelling, 67, 248-260.‏

Coulson, N. E., & Kim, M. S. (2000). Residential investment, non‐residential investment and GDP. Real Estate Economics, 28(2), 233-247.

Dargahi, H., & Ghadiri, A. (2003). Analysis of Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran (Review of Endogenous Growth Patterns), Business Research Journal, 26: 33-1. (in persian)

Dehghan Shabani, Z., & Akbari, N. (2015). Economic Distance and Regional Growth in Iran, Economic Research, 15 (2): 222-203. (in persian)

Dehghan Shabani, Z. (2012). Analysis of the effect of the integration of industrial activities on the growth of economic regions in Iran, Economic Modeling Research, 2 (8): 23-55. (in persian)

Eftimoski, M., & McLoughlin, K. (2019). Housing Policy and Economic Growth in China. RBA Bulletin, March, viewed, 31.‏

Emadzadeh, M., & Farzaneh B. (1384). The effect of education on the value added of industry. Knowledge and development, 16: 32-17. (in persian)

Farahmand, Sh., & Badri F. (2012). A Study of the Relationship between Aggregation and Economic Growth in Selected Asia-Pacific Countries, Rah-e Andisheh Economic Research, pp. 19-34. (in persian)

Farhoudi, R, Zanganeh Shahraki, S., & Saed, R. (2009), How the spatial distribution of population in the urban system of Iran during the years 1335 to 1385, Human Geographical Research, 68: 55-68. (in persian)

Gagliardini, P., Trojani, F., & Urga, G. (2005). Robust GMM tests for structural breaks. Journal of Econometrics, 129(1), 139-182.

Gholizadeh, A. (2019). Housing Price Theory in Iran (in simple language), Noor elam Publishing, Second Edition, Tehran. (in persian)

Gholizadeh, A., & Akbarian, H. (2010). Housing Investment and Economic Growth in Iran, Quantitative Economics, 7 (1): 133-105. (in persian)

Gholizadeh, A., & Barati, J. (2011). The Effect of Residential and Non-Residential Investment on GDP in Open Economy: A Case Study of Iran, Economics and Regional Development, 1 (1): 151-127. (in persian)

Gholizadeh, A., & Barati, J. (2011). The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Residential Investment in Open Economy, Research and Economic Policies, 19 (58): 50-31. (in persian)

Gholizadeh, A., & Barati, J. (2013). The role of foreign trade in the impact of GDP components on housing investment, Journal of Macroeconomics, 8 (15): 11-11. (in persian)

Ghorbani, F., Sarlak, A., & Haji, Gh. (2020). The Impact of Human Capital and Business Environment on the Economic Growth of Iranian Provinces, Economic Modeling, 14 (50): pp. 176-153. (in persian)

Godo, Y., and Hayami, Y. (1999). Accumulation of Education in Modern Economic Growth: A Comparison of Japan with the United States, 1888-1995 (No. 4), ADBI Research Paper Series.

Green, R. K. (1997). Follow the leader: how changes in residential and non‐residential investment predict changes in GDP. Real Estate Economics, 25(2), 253-270.

Greene, W. H. (2008). The econometric approach to efficiency analysis. The measurement of productive efficiency and productivity growth, 1(1), 92-250.

Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1993). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT press.

Hohenberg, P. M. (2004). The Historical Geography of European Cities: An Interpretative Essay, in: Henderson, J. V and J. F. Thisse (eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Volume 4: Cities and Geography, Elsevier North- Holland.

Hong, L. (2014). The Dynamic Relationship between Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Prefecture City Panel Data in China. IERI Procedia, 7, 2-7.

Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data, 2nd. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Kose, Ma, Es Prasad, & Me Terrones (2003), Financial integration and macroeconomic volatility, Imf Staff Papers, 50, 119-142.

Huang, W. X., & Ma, H. Y. (2015, January). Research on the Influence of Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth in China. In 2015 International Conference on Management Engineering and Management Innovation (icmemi-15). Atlantis Press.

Inoue, A., & Shintani, M. (2006). Bootstrapping GMM estimators for time series. Journal of Econometrics, 133(2), 531-555.

kazerooni, A., alilou, K., Mozaffari, Z. (2018). A Study of Contemporaneous Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Urbanization on Economic Growth in Iranian Provinces (2006-2015). Economics Research, 18(71). (in persian)

Kohlscheen, E., Mehrotra, A. N., & Mihaljek, D. (2020). Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades. International Journal of Central Banking, 16, 6.‏

Kong, Y., Glascock, J. L., & Lu-Andrews, R. (2016). An Investigation into Real Estate Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Sustainability, 8(1), 66.

Kuang, W. D. (2011). Real estate investment, real estate loan and economic growth in China. Economic Theory and Business Management, (1), 59.‏

Kuersteiner, G. M. (2002). Mean squared error reduction for GMM estimators of linear time series models. manuscript, Boston University.

 Liu, H.Y.; Yun, W.P.; Zheng, S.Q (2002). The interaction between housing investment and economic growth in china Int. Real Estate Rev., 5, 40–60.

Lo, C. P. (2001). Modeling the population of China using DMSP operational linescan system nighttime data. Photogrammetric engineering and remote sensing, 67(9), 1037-1047.

Maclennan, D., Ong, R., & Wood, G. (2016). Housing, productivity and economic development.‏ Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. Australia.

Martin, R., Finglaton, B and Garretsen, (2009). Analysis of the Main Factors of Regional Growth: An in-depth Study of the best and Worst Performing European Regions, Cambridge Econometrics.

Mills, E. S. (1987). Has the United States overinvested in housing?. Real Estate Economics, 15(1), 601-616.

Mozaffari, Z. & MotafaKKer Azad, M.A. (2019). The effect of social capital and human capital on air pollution in the provinces of Iran, Applied Theories of Economics, Volume 6, Number 1, pp. 128-97. (in persian)

Mozaffari, Z. (2021). The Effect of Human Capital on Economic Growth in Iran; GMM in Time Series Approach and Fuzzy Logic. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 56(1), 145-172. (in persian)

Mujadzadeh Tabatabai, S. & Nematollahi F. (2010). The Impact of Government Expenditure Growth on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Iranian Economy, Economic Research and Policies, 17 (53): 25-44. (in persian)

Nademi, Y & Khochiani, R. (2017). Investigating the Relationship between the Housing Sector and Some Macroeconomic Variables of Iran: Wavelet Coherence Approach, Econometric Modeling, Volume 2 (4): 106-85. (in persian)

Pelinescu, E. (2015). The impact of human capital on economic growth. Procedia Economics and Finance, 22, 184-190.

Pumain, D. (2003). Le processus d’urbanisation. Démographie, Analyse et synthèse IV, Les déterminants de la migration, Paris, Editions de l‟ Institut national d‟ études démographiques, 101-124.

Pumina, G. (2003). “Towards a Seascape Typology. I. Zipf Versus Pareto Laws”, Journal of Marine Systems, Article in press Review of Economics and Statistics, 39: 312-320.

Qolizadeh, A., & Sajjadi, H. (2010). Estimation of housing investment function in urban areas of Iran with Tobin-Q approach, economic policy, 2 (3): 71-105. (in persian)

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.

Sadeghloo, T., Ahmadi, S., Mahmoudi, H. (2019). Analysis of the Effects of Housing Quality on Health (Physical and Mental) of Villagers (Case Study: Villages of Shandiz District in Binaloud County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 8(3), 59-80. (in persian)

Samati, M., Fatehabadi M., & Ranjbar H., (2014). "The Effects of Industrial Accumulation and Urbanization on Economic Growth: Evidence from Iranian Markets", Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 8 (27): 17-36. (in persian)

Shahabadi, A., (2002). Private Sector Capital Inventory and Endogenous Growth (Case Study of Iran), Mofid Letter, 8 (31): 122-101. (in persian)

Shahabadi, A. (2006). The Effect of Direct Foreign Investment, International Trade and Human Capital on the Productivity of Total Factors in the Iranian Economy, Economic Inquiries, 4 (7). (in persian)

Shen, Y., & Liu, H. (2004). Relationship between real estate development investment and GDP in China. JOURNAL-TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY, 44(9), 1205-1208.

Souri A., & Mehregan, N., (2008) The Role of Social Capital in the Formation of Human Capital Business Research Journal, Volume 11 (42): 219-207. (in persian)

Tang, Z. J., Xu, H. J., & Ba, S. S. (2010). Impact of the real estate fluctuations on China’s macroeconomics. Statistical Research, 2, 15-22.

Turin, D. A. (1969). The Construction Industry: Its Economic Significance and Its Role in Development. Tables, Graphs, & Appendices. University College Environmental Research Group.

Wells, J. (1985). The role of construction in economic growth and development. Habitat International, 9(1), 55-70.

Yu, Q., Chen, Y., & Liang, F. H. (2021). Housing Market Speculation and Firm Productivity: Evidence from China. China & World Economy, 29(5), 148-174.